They've finally started posting Real Plus Minus scores for this season... and check out #11 in the league:
Then how come he isn't helping us win more? CJ is great when he is on (in wins), but he is a huge chucking anchor when he isn't on.
I think when there is single metric showing one thing, and several others showing something different, you have to wonder about that single metric I mean, those RPM numbers: 4 Jayson Tatum, PF 5.88 5 Will Barton, SG 5.40 9 Paul Millsap, PF 4.72 11 CJ McCollum, SG 4.10 13 Denzel Valentine, SG 3.79 14 Donte DiVincenzo, SG 3.77 17 Jalen Brunson, PG 3.46 18 Ben McLemore, SG 3.37 19 Dennis Schroder, PG 3.36 20 Ricky Rubio, PG 3.36 21 Patty Mills, PG 3.31 22 Christian Wood, PF 3.29 23 Damian Lillard, PG 3.16 pretty hard to believe that Tatum, Valentine, Brunson, and Wood are "better" than Lillard
is there a stat that factors in how much defensive pressure these players are facing nightly? Not sure how you would analyze that aspect of the game. I tend to trust my eyes when I watch the games personally.
Yeah, that stat totally ignores his rapping ability. Serious point: RPM is supposed to show who's been most helpful to his team when he's on the court, not who has the most God-given ability. As everyone says, the downside is that it could be a product of the system, which is why a cluster of players from the same successful team will show up. However, that's also its strength. There are players (Michael Adams, e.g.) who put up huge numbers on sucky teams but will never contribute to a winner. They will have low RPMs. Also, it's about the only stat that can really measure defensive impact. One more caveat: even if a player is doing well under one system, that might not be the best system for the team. So maybe if our team wasn't structured so that CJ is so important, we'd be doing better. Of course it's early, and there should be a bunch of players who drop down (Denzel Valentine!?!) buy it still measures who's been on the court when the team has been doing well so far. (And one other thing I like about it: it's a slight counterbalance to the out of control Doncic hype. I mean he's still really really good, but it recognizes that a lot of Dallas's success has come from its great bench.)
I'm not sure if the stat is still at NBA.com but they used to track how much space players had on shots by closest defender. That might reveal a little, but I don't think it tracked if it was more than 1 defender in close
They said last night Cj has the most blocks of any player 6’6(?) or less. his defense looks to be improved from the eyeball test too. maybe thats contributed to his slow start of the season. He came in focused on defense? If he can keep playing both ends like he is now, his stock will grow aNd an all star nod might happen.
Small sample and Ant being such a huge negative "helps". Do think CJ has played pretty well after a slow start offensively though. His attentiveness and energy defensively has also been more consistent.
all that could be true just seems like there has to be a lot of noise in these early numbers for instance: CJ played better last year than he has this year so far. Well, last season, CJ's RPM was 1.14 compared to 4.01 this season. Last season CJ had 6.32 RPM wins. But this season he supposedly has 3.15 RPM wins? I mean last season the Blazers had 53 wins. This season they only have 10, less than a 5th that of last year, but CJ already has half the RPM wins of last season. Looks like there's some 2+2=9 stuff going on
RPM is unbiased. It doesn't really care about box score stats very much. You can read more about it here: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus I've always been pretty skeptical about RPM, but over the course of a season the top 20 or 30 so players tend to match up with expectations. It could be that the sample size is quite small. You're also right that being good in one model but bad in every other model should raise some flags. But I don't think you can dismiss it entirely. I'd be curious how CJ's RPM will change over the course of the season.
I'm a big fan of RPM but RPM is high variance so I wouldn't put too much stock in it so early in a season. Better to use multiple season.
