I didn't get to watch him too much this season, but judging from the stats he looks intriguing: 25.5 PPG on a decent 45% shooting. His turnovers are a bit of a concern, though. My main questions are about his defense, his passing, and how much he can improve other areas of his game.
Offense: Very, very good at getting to the rim and finishing. Makes amazing finishes. Does amazing things going toward the rim. Has a good mid-range game. Doesn't get to the foul line all that much but if he got calls like some of the star players in the league do he would get just as many or more than those guys. 3 point shot improved toward the end of last season but is still inconsistent. He can make some good passes off the drive but he won't be dropping dimes like crazy. If you consider him a SG (as I do) then hes an above average- though not great- as a passer. If you consider him a PG hes a bad passer for his position. Hes not particularly turnover prone but his numbers are high because for the first half of last season he was basically our only shot at winning. He took A LOT of shots and to be quite frank he was extremely impressive and absolutely dominate for the first couple of months of the season. Eventually the heavy minutes, shots, carrying the load, etc. caught up to him. Defensively hes not terrible. He really isn't a liability guarding 2's IMO. Last season he had games where he shut down Roy and Durant. Goes for steals a lot when he should just play sound defense. Hes a great ballhawk but, like I said, it can cost him sometimes. Hes a pretty good rebounder for his size. How much can he improve? Its hard to say with him because I can't see him becoming any more dominant getting to the rim and finishing. He has an ace mid-range game. I suppose if he gets a good 3 pt shot it makes him that much more dangerous but when you're that explosive and talented getting to the rim and you can get either a layup or a pretty open 18 footer(which he hits very well) then I don't know if it will really be a great thing for him. I'd like to see him go a full season with Curry now. I'd like to see him take it a little easier and really only take over games when the team needs it. I'd love it if he got calls like a lot of stars do but that comes with winning games. I'd love to see how he plays defense on a team like the Celtics who have great defensive philosophies and schemes. IMO Hes a pure SG. And I think hes a very good SG and not a liability on defense on SG. But if you're playing him at PG you're only going to hurt your club and you're not going to use him as effectively as he could be used.
Thanks a lot, Run; I found your analysis to be very thorough and helpful. As you may have guessed, I was trying to see how well he would fit in D'Antoni's run and gun offense. What's the deal with him though? Are the Warriors really trying to get rid of him for cap room? If that's the case will a Curry + Chandler for Ellis swap be good enough to get the job done?
Some of this will duplicate what Run said. I totally agree that Ellis is a SG, he tried to play PG and thinks he can play PG, but quite frankly he is simply unable to understand what a PG is and basically is just a ballhandling SG. Still, Ellis is a good player, but like most basketball players, there are some issues to deal with as well: The Good: Decent scorer in isolation and off the ball - uses crossover effectively, great first step, not afraid of contact, can pull up and create distance with various hesitation moves. From a comparative perspective, his contract is fair at $11 million per year through his prime years Makes ridiculous trick shots and gets them posted on youtube Needs work on: Defense: good and bad, as noted he's capable of good defense when focused, and especially has no problem with bigger players in most cases. But when he gets beat, he tends to give up rather than following the play through. No one's sure why he lacks the focus consistently. Shooting: his mechanics lack consistency, fixing that would probably solve most of his issues with range. Fatigue plays a factor as well (monthly breakdown of stats shows he shoots worse as the season goes on) The Bad: Passing: Lacks vision, doesn't understand spacing/plays other than the basics or set plays; basically he can isolate, run the pick and roll, or score in transition. No sense of creativity with the ball. (Look at his situational stats) Chemistry/attitude: Doesn't seem to make a great effort to get along with his teammates. Sometimes seemingly loses focus due to his attitude. Sometimes complained to the media about things that should have been taken care of internally. History of injuries: has spondylolsis, a chronic spine condition. The pain from this injury may occasionally limit his effectiveness, and rest is the only way to relieve the symptions. Infamous moped incident led to a torn deltoid ligament, which has seemingly healed completely, but still should be considered when assessing his overall condition.
You guys are being way too nice. In a run and gun offense he thrives, otherwise he's just not bright enough to play in a strucutred offense or defense. He's a freak athlete and has great open court instinct. Wants to be the man too much. When he was 2nd fiddle to Baron he thrived. Probably the best mid-range game in the NBA when he plays within himself. Bottom Line, he's a great free flowing offense guy but not smart enough to be the man, even though he wants to be that guy.
I don't think his passing is as bad as you guys say. His TO rate was a concern but it was also because he tried to take on a lot, as he was told he would be the man. It was his first year back from a major injury, his first year back without a proven supporting cast, and his first year back as a franchise guy. He made some pretty nice play son the pick and has the vision to find a backdoor cutter. That being said, he's not great at it. I'd say he's above average. He's also young and has a lot to improve on. If he has a stable role on a team, I think he would be very effective. He has a high-dribble and under full-court pressure, he doesn't seem to get it across the line fast enough. When he tries to force it, he turns it over. Here's are low-lights from an early season game against the Clippers: [video=youtube;VcJY33GRA-g]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcJY33GRA-g[/video] This was probably one of his worst games. Baron Davis absolutely torched him and it looked like he had zero fight in him. He must have gotten picked off in the open court 2-3 times, but it's not shown in that video. The one year he shot over 50% from the field he was great off the ball and coming off screens and popping that elbow jumper. I think he tried to replicate that last season but WITH the ball. There were some moments he couldn't miss and some moments he missed everything. I think his defense is okay. He is most effective when he has a backcourt mate that can guard 2's so Monta can guard 1's. But, Monta doesn't seem to possess the lateral quickness to stay with quick guards. That's why he had more success guarding bigger players in the post last season. When he stops relying on his athleticism and more on his teammates, he will be a much improved player. I don't know if that's in the cards for him though.
Here's Monta's game against the Blazers where he played really good defense on Brandon Roy. He played this type of defense a handful of times throughout the season on star players: Durant, Kobe, et al. [video=youtube;Cnp5KW8ad5g]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnp5KW8ad5g[/video]
It sounds like Hollinger. It doesn't take into consideration all the variables that lead to an atrocious efficiency rating. He's better than that, but he's still got his flaws. He's still young and has room for improvement/development.
As noted, his per-minute numbers and turnover numbers are a result of simply how thin and poor the Warriors were. You have to do some better number-crunching or only use wider analysis than simply relying on the per-minute and adjusting for pace when considering his efficiency. If you take out the times where he had to force up a shot or create on his own because of his lack of help, his true shooting and points per minute would improve dramatically. The same goes for his pure point rating; the turnovers weren't entirely his fault, and that's what led to the horrible PPR. Given his career numbers, if he had a normal team, his TS and eFG should rise by about 0.050%, and his turnovers would drop by about 10%, which still isn't amazing but would make him more efficient and give him a much better PPR. Of course you can't force it too much of the other way either and totally take away responsibility for his mistakes and give them entirely to his team, but you have to watch him and his games to make a balanced report in my opinion, which I felt that short snippet did not do. I love to number crunch too, but you have to be a little more aggressive at it than simply looking at the overall picture, that's why situational stats are much more revealing.
Well, he's our best player. I know, I know many of you will say Curry, but Monta is still our best player. Just tossing this out there. Ellis + BWright for Wilson Chandler + Lee. Good deal for both sides?
Its dead on. Monta is a great finisher with an above-average midrange jumper. He's super-quick, elite quickness that makes him one of the best scorers in the league. He was coined the "one man fast break" a couple of years ago and it is true. However, he does not do really anything to make his teammates better other than take scoring responsibilities off of them. He's like one of those guys in life who looks at others and says "I can't help them, they have to help themselves." He does not find teammates in their comfort zones. His assists come on spectacular plays, not plays where he looks to find guys in their spots. Defensively, he can be good if he wanted to, but so can 99% of the guys in the NBA. He decides he's an offensive guy and that means he can play for steals and let his man just score. I've personally watched him get torched because he simply did not try or was lazy and never found his guy. I sang Monta's praises before last year but I think he showed his true colors last year, in a down year, he simply gave up and blamed others and his play showed it. Whoever gets him is going to get another AI who does not make anyone better.
Again, thanks everyone for all the info on Ellis. From the little I've seen from him I've always liked him, especially his high FG%. Looks like he can work well under D'Antoni Lee for Ellis straight up is fair, but adding Chandler in for Wright tipped the scale a bit. Wright is young and has potential, but his injuries really mar his trade value. He has only played 11 games in his career and Chandler is young and has proven that he can be a serviceable player in this league averaging 15/5 last season. I imagine Donnie would inquire about Anthony Randolph.
