Moves to "win now" this season

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by kukoc4ever, Jan 12, 2016.

  1. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Let's just start coming up with moves that can be made to put the team in a better place for this season. These are more "win now" moves vs "win later" moves.

    Here's one I played around with this morning.

    2 trades.

    Derrick Rose and Sacramento Pick
    to Charlotte for
    Nicolas Batum and Spencer Hawes

    Nikola Mirotic and Kirk Hinrich
    to Memphis for
    Mike Conley

    PG: Mike Conley / Aaron Brooks / Moore
    SG: Nicolas Batum / Snell / McDermott
    SF: Jimmy Butler / Mike Dunleavy / McDermott
    PF: Gibson / Portis
    C: Gasol / Noah / Hawes

    Breaks up the logjam at the 4/5. Cuts bait with the Rose situation / contract.
    Charlotte does it for a bit of a box office draw, a pick and gets rid of a bad Hawes contract.
    Memphis does it to have a good young player like Mirotic under contract for next year at a good price and they lose Conley for the rest of the season during a meh year for them. If they are not going to resign Conley perhaps Mirotic is enough compensation.

    If it doesn't work out for the Bulls this season Conley, Batum and Gasol all might be gone next year. Bulls won't have much salary on the books and the loss was Mirotic for 1 year at a good price and the Sacto pick. Young players McDermott, Portis, Butler are here going forward and perhaps they choose to resign Conley/Batum or try for free agent next season.


    Keep em coming!

    Conley is the consummate point guard, Batum is decent from three and is a solid all-around player that doesn't need the ball a ton. Butler and Gasol are freed to be the 1A an 1B on this team and the roster is still plenty deep.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2016
  2. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    This is a tough topic. I feel like any win now strategy has to involve keeping Rose and hoping he returns to form, because I just don't see how this team wins without a second dynamic star.

    Yesterday's loss against Washington was strange in that it featured some entirely crappy ball, but may serve as the only road map I see toward a championship. You had Butler and Rose put up high usage, reasonably high efficiency performances; Mirotic was active on defense and the boards with only moderate usage; Gasol (too many games in too many days) and Noah (coming back from injury) played like crap, but you saw them dominate the boards in stretches . . .

    I think the best chance for a championship is for this team to be a better version of itself, without any roster moves.
     
  3. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Maybe a better way to frame the issue is that for the last 10 games we've had almost superstart like play from Jimmy Butler, attacking above replacement level play from Derrick Rose, all-star play from Pau Gasol and high TS% play from Mirotic and the offense has looked very good in the process. We might not have a good reason to expect anything better from this team than what we've gotten during this stretch.

    If you think that'll be enough to compete for a championship, then you ought to be happy as a clam. If not, then it's time to do like K4E and crank out the trade checker.
     
  4. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Okay, my trade idea:

    Utah: Nikola Mirotic, Doug McDermott, Sac Pick, Cameron Bairstow

    Chicago: Alec Burks, Rodney Hood

    Why for Chicago:

    It clears our logjam in the frontcourt and gives us two 2-way players on the wing where we're sorely lacking them. Alec Burks is a good attacker, competent 3 point shooter, and is locked up in a very reasonable contract. I believe he can moonlight as a secondary ballhandler, moreso than Jimmy, but I haven't watched him enough to know for sure.

    Hood's more of a pure SF and is probably the guy we should have picked at 16 instead of Doug. Not quite the offensive vocabulary but it's a lot easier to play the lineup game with him.

    Most importantly, this trade gets rid of our awkward wing situation where we have to choose between one devil or the other. Both of these guys are just good enough at everything that they can play in a variety of lineups and warrant big minutes as 3rd and 4th options.

    This team's achilles heel is that it can't utilize its talent because it doesn't possess any killer lineup combinations that can create matchup advantages without opening up gaping weaknesses for the other team to exploit.

    It also has the benefit of not rocking the boat too much so we don't have to worry about screwing with rotations for key guys too much late in the season.

    PG: Rose/HinBrooks
    SG: Jimmy/Burks
    SF: Hood/Jimmy/Burks
    PF: Taj/Portis
    C: Pau/Noah

    All of a sudden all of our lineups have at least 3 2 way players, and often 5.

    Why for Utah?

    Burcs is rumoured to be on the trade block anyways, and Mirotic strikes me as a very good compliment to Favors/Gobert. And they like foreigners. I think they'd be "all in" on developing him into a star and making him a core piece. Doug for Hood is a bit of a lateral swap, with a slight advantage for us since he's the better 2 way player, but IMO Mirotic is the most valuable trade piece in the deal so it balances out.
     
  5. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Agree. The Bulls don't have any assets that can bring back a serious difference maker. Rose could be a serious difference maker, though this may be a pipe dream. I understand that some may feel the need to "do something...anything!!!" I'm not that kind of fan.

    I don't like what I'm seeing. Seems like Fred ain't going anywhere, so they might as well use the time between now and the trade deadline to help get Fred a roster that's closer to what he wants. No one is off the table.
     
  6. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    It's really tough to know what to make of this team. I don't think it's fair to make evaluations during one of these game-heavy stretches. This team's core is too old to do that and expect it to hold true in the playoffs. I think there are reasons to suspect the roster will play much better when it actually matters. It's not just age either -- Hoiberg has his bigs sagging way back in the lane when guarding pick and roll, presumably to save his roster's legs and keep people off the injured list. To me it feels like this team is actually primed to overperform in the playoffs, not underperform as it did in the Thibs era.

    On the flipside, if ever there was a good year to move veteran talent for picks this is the year. There are a ton of borderline teams that are sniffing their first taste of playoff contention and looking to make a move. I actually think you could get quite a bit for Noah, Gibson, Rose, and Gasol at the deadline.

    Don't you have to at least consider making a play for the future?
     
  7. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    First, I think the Rose I've seen this season is virtually untradeable. I mean, $20mildo for high-usage bad? No one's that stupid. The rest of the league see Rose as being the Bulls problem and they're glad of it. He'll stay a Bull because no other team is even close to willing to bet on him.

    Noah might have been more tradeable when he maintained the image of being a "team-first" guy, but there are cracks in that now.

    If you acquire Gasol, you've gotta start him, so that limits his tradeability. I think you have to hope for an injury to a starting center.

    Gibson's the most tradeable due to his versatility, contract and unquestioned team-orientation. Of course, for all these reasons, I'd like to keep him.

    RealGM denizens would gladly add Niko to the trade block. A smaller, but not insignificant number of posters would add McDermott.

    As we move into mid-February, the Bulls are going to have some tough decisions to make. If the Bulls are playing around .600 ball, I can't see a trade that focuses beyond this season.
     
  8. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Looks like Noah just dislocated his shoulder again. That does 2 things. 1)Makes Noah untradeable for the foreseeable future and 2) Makes Gasol pretty much indispensable.
     
  9. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if, rather than "win now" vs "win later" we begin to think in terms of "how do we maximize title chances on Jimmy's current contract?"

    He's been at superstar level these last 15 games or so (not counting last night), and after this year will actually be on a very good contract. It could be Steph Curry-esque in a few years.

    What kind of pieces do you add to compliment Jimmy?

    Niko fits. I'm not sure if anyone else does squarely. We'll still need a good 2-way SF and Rose would likely have to go. Thoughts?
     
  10. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Win now vs win later is a K4E thing. It's not how teams look at things. Teams aim for sustained excellence. In the NBA they all want to be like the Spurs. They are focused on the present, but with an eye towards the future. They don't want to have to be bad to be good.

    Jimmy is a piece around which you can build. Right now, he's the only sure thing. The team is hopeful that Mirotic, McDermott, Portis and even Snell are pieces that will fit, with a backup plan that they'll be assets that can be useful to acquire other pieces. Noah looks increasingly like a broken piece that's of little use.

    What the team does with Gasol and/or Gibson this season will be telling as to how the team feels about this season.
     
  11. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Simply not true. All good organizations plan for the future via analysis/projections/etc. Good plans will go a few months out, 1 year out, 3 years out, 5 years out, 10 years out, etc. I would even bet that there are people at the worlds top advertising/marketing firms that engage in this type of work. I can attest that there are people at tech, finance and higher ed firms that do this type of work. Do you dispute this?

    In the NBA teams decide to "go for it" or "build for the future" all the time. When the Cavs traded Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love it was a clear move to "win now" or "go for it" or as the White Sox once said go "all in." Come up with your own phraseology if you choose transplant if you don't like mine but its just a way to describe where in the time horizon are they aiming to maximize success, assuming the goal is to win a championship.

    Personally, I don't think the Bulls goal is to win a championship. Their goal is to maximize profits, which is reasonable when you are running a business of course. Their model is to make the playoffs, not pay the luxury tax if at all possible due to ideological reasons mostly and have a backlog of young talents to take the place of older talent when it ages out or they decide they don't want to pay them market rates.

    They have made a lot of money doing this once Paxson took over. The only whiff of true contention the Bulls have enjoyed when when the Rose pick magically landed in their laps. They also had a brilliant head coach in Thibs who was one of the best coaches of all time in getting the most out of the roster he was given.

    Hanging around in the NBA middle, which is where the Bulls model tends to lead to, doesn't usually result in contention.

    They are kind of like the Spurs of making the 1st round of the playoffs. A meh Spurs. A flaccid Spurs.

    "Win later" does not have to be "be bad to be good" although many teams go this route. The rub is how to you get the all-star / superstar talent? Its either trade, free agency or draft. If you are going the draft route you tend to need high draft picks. To get high draft picks you tend to need to be in the lottery by not making the playoffs or acquire lottery picks via trade.

    Of the current NBA elite, the Cavs were "bad to be good" and landed Kyrie and what ended up being Kevin Love.

    The Warriors were "bad to be good" and landed Curry, Thompson and Barnes.

    According to you, these teams were failures at acting like the Spurs and achieving sustained excellence.

    I imagine their fans right now are not complaining too much, though, despite them failing at doing what you say teams aim for.

    Bulls fans on the other hand have not had a team that could get to the NBA Finals in 18 years. Keep in mind the Bulls are one of the most profitable sports organizations in the NBA.




    Bad job on coming up with any potential trades / move that could be made.

    You are correct. The Bulls have some aging talent that is starting to come off the books. They have some great to decent younger guys that are getting ready to take their place. The Bulls will probably be a threat to make the 1st round of the playoffs for several years in the future.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2016
  12. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Yes, its looking more and more that way, once you come to the realization that Rose very well might not be an impact player in the NBA anymore.

    You have a potential superstar in Jimmy Butler. He's certainly an all-star level NBA player in his prime at this point. How to you maximize the chances of winning a title with him in the next 1-2 years would be one way you could go about it. I would call this "win now" but other phraseology could be used.

    The Bulls are in a bind, assuming the goal is to win a championship, which it probably isn't, because their 2nd best player, Gasol is old and might opt out. The main incentive to try and win this season for me would be to maximize the nice Gasol signing. You have at least a 1B in Butler and a 2 in Gasol.


    Who is going to the the 2nd all-star level player on this team if the goal is to win the title in the next 1-2 years? Unknown. How will the Bulls acquire one given Paxson's record of trades and free agent pickups without lotto picks? Good luck figuring that one out, unless getting Jimmy Butlers in the late rounds is a reproducible skill that this front office has.

    Even then, it took several years for Jimmy Butler to become Jimmy Butler, if he even is a 1A on a championship team. So even if the Bulls hit on a late 1st pick again, that pick likely won't be ready in the 1-3 year time window we have to maximize the current Jimmy Butler.

    Its hard to figure out a plausible way to do this. Especially given Paxson's record of non-salary dump trades and inability to land the big fish via free agency.

    They will be able to field a reasonably competitive team around Butler that should make the 1st round of the playoffs though. This will be considered a job well done when its year-end review time as along as the arena stays full.

    ---

    The trade I came up with gives the Bulls a better chance to make some noise this season while Gasol is still here and productive IMO and gives them an option at the end of the season in terms of deciding to perhaps keep guys like Conley / Batum who will be expensive or have Cap Space to try and land the Butler compliment via that route.

    Would a "Big 3" of Conley, Butler and Gasol plus the remaining glue players be enough? Well, I like the way Conley has played the last 2 years more than what Rose has done, that's for sure. And if it doesn't work this season the Bulls can decide to roll with Conley/Batum/Butler going forward or blow it up and go the Cap Space / perhaps not make the playoffs route for a year route. The cost was Niko and the Sacto pick, which is high.

    Could Conley/Butler/Batum/Portis/Gibson/Dougie be a core to hang with perhaps best the Cavs as Lebron ages the next 1-2 years?

    Are these moves possible / realistic? I don't really know of course since I don't work in the NBA. :) But that would be one approach that we could take when playing this game.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2016
  13. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Supposedly the Pelicans are interested in Rudy Gay and are willing to part with Ryan Anderson.

    Perhaps they would be interested in Derrick Rose? Once again, a potential box office draw, a former MVP and the potential to have a dynamic duo in Rose and AD if for whatever reason they think Rose can turn it around. Also some "hope" in a young "asset" in McDermott or Snell.

    Derrick Rose
    Doug McDermott or Tony Snell
    for
    Ryan Anderson
    Jrue Holiday

    PG: Holiday / Brooks / Hinrich
    SG: Jimmy / Moore / Brooks
    SF: Anderson / Niko / Snell or Doug
    PF: Taj/ Anderson / Niko / Portis
    C: Pau/Noah (RIP) / Portis (small-ball)

    Holiday is a better NBA PG than Derrick at this point and its establishes Jimmy at the #1 on the team. Anderson is an ideal guy at the 4 if they are feeling stretchy and is the floor spacer this team needs if he can hold down the 3. If Niko can be the 3 on this team, Anderson can.

    If Derrick keeps playing as he has been playing , this team has a better chance to knock off the Cavs this season, IMO.

    Negative is that Holiday is on the books next year at 11 million. Holiday is a good player though, so that's not necessarily a bad thing and this move moves us into the Jimmy Butler era. Bulls have an option to sign Anderson for big money if they wanted. Perhaps a secondary move involving Niko and Portis could be made to get an 'in-prime' 1B or 2 to pair with Jimmy, Jrue, Anderson and Gasol (if he wanted to stay).
     
  14. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    I was thinking the same thing
     

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