(disregard the order, it's not my opinion, I'm just using ESPN's current mock as a reference). Format: - Player -- (best case scenario) -- (worst case scenario) - Chet Holmgren -- (Evan Mobley) -- (Bol Bol) - Jabari Smith -- ( Michael Porter Jr. Khris Middleton) -- (Cam Johnson) - Paolo Banchero -- (modern day Chris Webber) -- (Julius Randle) - Jaden Ivey -- (Donovan Mitchell) -- (Coby White) - Keegan Murray -- (Carmelo Anthony) -- (Tobias Harris) - Shaedon Sharpe -- TBD - Jalen Duren -- (Robert Williams) -- (Dale Davis) - A.J. Griffin -- (Desmond Bane) -- (Max Struss) - Johnny Davis -- (Devin Booker) -- (Marshon Brooks) - Dyson Daniels -- (Nic Batum) -- (Evan Turner, portland version) - Bennedict Mathurin -- (Andre Iguodala) -- (Cam Reddish) - Ochai Agbaji -- (Mikal Bridges) -- (Caleb Martin) - Jeremy Sochan -- (Boris Diaw) -- (Danuel House) - Ty Ty Washingon -- (Monte Morris) -- (Frank Ntilikina) - Tari Eason -- (Shawn Marion) -- (Keita Bates-Diop) Obviously some players with super high variance, while others with not much difference between best and worst case scenarios in my projections. My Chet comps is why he scares me-- if he works out, he's the absolute best guy we can get in the draft, but I project Murray/Banchero to be guys who will have higher floors who would immediately boost our talent even if they don't hit their ceilings. I wanna see what you guys think. I think in the end, I'll most likely tend towards guys with a high floor just so we don't get a guy with high bust potential, but Cronin might feel like taking a big swing at a potential superstar.
On a second thought I don't think my MPJ comp for Jabari sits well. Might need to re-think that because Jabari is a far more aggressive defender. I'll add a taller Khris Middleton to the comp instead. Considering even he's not necessarily a lockdown defender, this probably highlights the intrigue in Jabari. You have a great shooter on high volume who is 6'10, but also gets after it on D. So few guys in the league who fit that mold. Regardless, his development in the NBA will hinge completely on how he improves his handle.
Think Jabari or Banchero is a better fit for the Blazers next season? I've been thinking about this. Banchero has the higher ceiling because of his handles, but Jabari is more likely to reach it and is ready to plug and play immediately. He's better defensively and is already a fantastic shooter. The Blazers would be lucky to add either.
Due to his outside shot, I don't think Chet has a legitimate comp as a best case. Have we ever seen a 7-footer who can hit 40% from 3, break his defender down off the dribble, and also anchor a defense and block 3-4 shots a game?
Are we sure he can do all these things? I want to see if he can break anyone down who doesn't play in the WCC.
I personally don’t think Carmelo Anthony is Keegan Murray’s ceiling. I actually think Tobias Harris is closer to being his ceiling than his floor, although Murray could probably be an overall better player. But then again, I’m probably more less high on Murray than most. Not really sure who his floor is.
Personally, I think Smith is the better fit. I think you might in the minority in thinking Banchero has a higher ceiling overall, but I guess it gets more even in opinion as you consider specific teams’ needs. I personally think Smith would have a higher ceiling on this team than Banchero because he’s more athletic and is already a better defender, two things we desperately need in the frontcourt. A lot of Banchero’s strengths like mid-post scoring and initiating an offense from the PF position, we don’t really need. Banchero would be great stepping into a situation without a legit answer at their PG position, whereas Smith would be great stepping into a situation where he can just shoot 3’s and play defense. Smith is also still 18. While Banchero has a better handle, it’s not like Smith doesn’t have a handle at all. His handle looks good in the open court, and he can work on it as he continues to develop. His spot up shot is already polished for an 18 year old. Banchero I can see becoming a Chris Webber. Smith I can see his ceiling being a 6’10 Paul George, a true PF-sized version of PG. From a right now standpoint as well, Dame/Simons/Smith would be a much better fit with Nurkic in the middle than with either Banchero or Holmgren. But I agree, I’d be happy with either Banchero or Smith.
Kevin Garnett with a better shot. Like KG (& Durant), I think Chet will start his career primarily matched up on SFs STOMP
He's not even close to the athlete Garnett was and he's way skinnier. There's no way that he is defending SFs. I think he'll have a tough time handling the speed of most PFs in the league.
We shall see, the predraft hasn't even happened yet but I recall how skinny KG was as a rook even though he skipped his predraft. Are you aware that most teams seek to switch on screens these days? Chet is a 3&D monster. STOMP
do you see Chet as a can't miss prospect? KG mighta been skinny, but his strength was really underrated, even as a youngin. He never got pushed around in the NBA. I see Chet getting pushed around frequently by non-prospects playing in a tertiary conference.
