Observations from press row by Kerry Eggers

You are assuming Noah, Meyers, Crabbe are all gone? Noah, especially could benefit from some more post season experience.

And yes, I think Dame and C.J. still have some growing to do, especially in the post season.

It even takes the greatest players in the game a while to learn how to win in the post season. The Bulls didn't win it all until Jordan's 7th season. Early in his career, they got thrashed by the Celtics and then the Pistons. It's all part of the learning and growing process. I consider any, and all, post season experience valuable.

The odds of getting a future superstar at 12th are really no greater than getting one at 15th. In fact, historically (especially recently) the 15th picks have fared better than the 12th picks. Since the start of the NBA draft lottery in 1982, here are the top 6 players taken at 12th and the top 10 players taken at 15th:

Best #12 picks:
Mookie Blaylock (1987)
Muggsy Bogues (1989)
Thaddeus Young (2007)
Nick Collison (2003)
Harvey Grant (1988)
Greg Anthony (1991)

Best #15 picks:
Steve Nash (1996)
Kawhi Leonard (2011)
Brent Barry (1995)
Al Jefferson (2004)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (2013)
Robin Lopez (2008)

Obviously, active players like Giannis have a lot of time to move up the list. And while both lists contain roll players, in terms of superstars and all stars, the 15th pick has definitely fared better, especially in recent years. There hasn't been a single superstar taken with the 12th pick since the inception of the draft lottery 35 years ago. Nash and Kawhi, qualify and Giannis has the potential to be another superstar, all taken at 15th.

Like I said, it's a crap shoot that comes down to scouting when picking in this range.

I'd rather have the 15th pick and another year of post season experience than the 12th pick and no playoff experience. Also ask the players which they would refer, and I bet 15 of 15 would say making the playoffs, even if it means facing the Warriors. I don't think there is a single player on this team that would not view missing the playoffs this season as a failure.

BNM

 

What did his cousin Johan Petrol say?

BNM

 

Yeah, and we had the 6th worst record that time, not the 12th worst. Our odds of winning the #1 pick were 5.3%. If we end up with the 12th worst record this year (where we currently are), our odds of winning the top pick would be 0.7%. We'd have a 3.9% chance of falling to the 13th pick.

BNM

 

BNM, we're 2 losses from being in the 6th position, give or take. Looked at in that perspective, the odds of us moving up dramatically in the draft order are a lot better than that of making noise as the #8 seed in the playoffs.

 

I just dont' see us getting the 9th/10th pick more like the 13th/14th unless we get a major injury and the difference between the 13th/14th and the 15th/16th is nothing really.

 

I don't usually think this, but right now he seems to be purposefully obtuse. Arguing the history of 12th vs 15th picks is totally beside the point. Arguing against fan perspective by using player perspective is dumb. Thinking Vonleh is going to get meaningful minutes and experience in the Playoffs is a laugher.

 

Because I'm not a fan of tanking, I'm obtuse? Fine, disagree with me all you want, but I don't believe in deliberately losing, ever, under any circumstances. It creates a losing mentality and an attitude that losing is acceptable.

No thanks. I prefer not to be mentioned in the same breath as SAC, MIN, etc. MIN, in spite of having a shit load of top 5 picks including two straight ROYs is heading back to the lottery for the 14th consecutive time. SAC has had 8 top 8 picks in 8 years. We have had one. Yet, we are ahead of both teams in the standings.

I won't cheer for us to lose so we get a higher draft pick. We are currently the 9th seed and we are better than that. I will cheer for use to move up to the 8th seed, and when we get there, I will cheer for us to move up to the 7th seed, etc. I will always cheer for my team to win every single game they play and will never be happy when they lose.

If that makes me obtuse, so be it.

BNM

 

Where did I say it was about making noise in the playoffs? I said it's about a young team gaining valuable post season experience.

Nobody thought we'd make any noise in the playoffs last year either.

BNM

 

Mr. Cowboy Boots is pretty savvy with the pen and the pad if you ask me.

 

And we didn't. Outside a few diehard homers like yourself, it's widely acknowledged that making the 2nd round was an injury fluke.

Even if you can't/won't/don't accept that, you can't refute that there's absolutely no evidence that making the playoffs last year made the young team any better this year.

 

I'll be happy if we make the 7 or 6 seed. Go KingSpeed! LOL

 

Ok, so because I actually want my team to win I'm obtuse and a diehard homer. Silly me, I thought that made me a fan. I guess it's no longer cool to actually cheer for your team to win because all the cool kids are cheering for them to lose. Well, fuck the cool kids. History has shown that losing now to get better later is way more often than not, fool's gold - that the ONLY thing losing now guarantees you is that you are losing now.

And, just FYI, I did acknowledge that we beat the Clippers due to injuries. In fact, I made that very point in my first post in this thread:

Once you make the playoffs, anything can happen. An injury to a key player at a critical time can totally change the complexion of a series. We were well on our way to tying that LAC series at 2-2 when CP3 and later Blake Griffin went down. The momentum was already shifting when the injuries happened, but the injuries put us over the top.

I also said it at the time that the Bogut injury in the finals would be MUCH more important that most people realized. Once Bogut went down, with no legitimate rim protection, the Cavs (mostly LeBron) turned the last three games of that series into a layup drill, out scoring GSW by an average of 17 points per game in the paint. Their championship still counts and I don't hear anyone saying they should give their rings back.

Bottom line, I was taught you ALWAYS play too win, you always strive to do your best. Anything less is disrespectful to yourself, your teammates your fans and the game of basketball. I will NEVER cheer for my team to lose EVER. Not even in the summer league or the preseason.

If that makes me a diehard homer, that's a label I will wear proudly.

And to all the cool kids, bummer about that win tonight. Oh well, you know what they say, "cant lose them all".

BNM

 

Still being obtuse. I'm not arguing that you're wrong for wanting to win games and squeak into the 8th seed - I get that, that's a perfectly normal position to take as a fan. I'm not trying to get you to change. The point is, regardless of what YOU want, it's probably better for the future of the team to miss the Playoffs. There are more tangible positives to the lottery than the 8th seed for this team - what you or I, or anyone else, want doesn't have any impact on that.

 

We're just going to have to disagree on what's better for the future of the team. We already have a very young roster, and I think internal growth is more valuable at this point than adding an even younger player in the late lottery range. How many years before that player is ready to make a significant contribution? C.J. was a four year starter in college, picked 10th and it still took him until his NBA 3rd season to become a significant contributor.

The team is winning now, playing better and only a half game out of the 8th seed. I think it's clear the staff and players are pushing hard for that 8th (or higher) seed. I may be a delusional homer, but I think it's more likely that they move up, rather than down.

BNM

 

Again, as I've said many times before, the lottery pick can also be used in a trade. You keep clipping out various positive aspects of the lotto to try to tilt towards "internal growth" being the better route. The only players who might benefit from internal growth are:

Vonleh - not likely to play meaningful minutes in the POs when he's barely getting meaningful minutes in the regular season. If you want internal growth, let's start with the first 82 games of the season rather than four Playoff games.
Jake - see Vonleh
Pat - see Vonleh, and does he really have the potential for much growth?
Tim - see Pat
Harkless - he seemed to do well in the POs last year, I don't know that a torching by GSW is going to propel him to new heights

With that said, I've always expected the team to make the POs - the schedule is stuffed with bottom-feeders towards the end of the season. But even though I expect that, I don't HOPE for it. Sliding into the 8th spot off victories over hapless teams is only going to mask the team's massive deficiencies and put is in a worse position to improve the roster.

 

The pick can be traded whether it's in the lottery or not.

I contend that ALL young players, who have not yet reached their prime can benefit from post season experience. That includes Dame, C.J., Crabbe, Leonard, etc. It also includes the coaching staff. The playoffs are much different than the regular season. The stakes are higher, the intensity is ratcheted way up, playing the same opponent several times in a row, more days off between games, etc. In game and game to game adjustments are more significant, etc. The preparation is way different. Staying focused when you might have three days off between games, not letting veteran opponents get in your head, etc. are all issues young players must deal with.

And, who knows, if we make a trade that gets us another young player, he might also benefit from some playoff experience. Inexperienced teams do not generally fare well in the posts season. The only way to learn how to win in the playoffs is to actually play in the playoffs.

You disagree. Fine, but your disagreement does not negate my opinion. I just think losing breeds more losing and the chances of getting a real difference maker in the bottom end of the lottery are very, very slim. Getting a difference maker who will make an impact when Dame and C.J. are at their peak, even more slim. And, if such a player is available late lottery, there is just a good of a chance, historically, he will also be available at the 15th or 16th pick, where we'll be picking if we are the 8th seed in the West.

BNM

 

You are soooo wrong about that. You're focused on the wrong cause and effect angle. Yes, losing to get better often does not work. However, most of the winning teams got that way by losing first. The exceptions are largely the marquee FA destinations, which we'll never be.

In other words, you acknowledge it was fluky while still dismissing how lopsided the overall play was before the injuries. Phil Jackson would be proud of that "apology." We barely closed them out with Austin Rivers running the point, a player I believe you were extremely negative toward prior to the series.

Unlike say, being in the lottery where anything can happen?

You conveniently ignore the best option: Trading away current players for future assets or less developed but higher ceiling ones. Everyone still gives their best effort and gets more development time, but the pipeline is richer for upcoming seasons.