Assume the best case scenario happens as far as players healing and Bell resigning without the new ownership. Also, assuming the scenario where we end up with a top >3 pick not named Wall, Cousins or Favors. The Warriors go into next season with the following setup: The roster looks like this: Curry/<Nobody> Ellis/Bell/Morrow Maggette/Buike Wright/Randolph/Tolliver Biedrins/Turiaf/Hunter +>3 overall draft pick I'd like to see Ellis and Maggette and perhaps a swapped 1st pick moved for a dominant Big. I also assume that Randolph goes into summer league and dominates and raises his trade value back up again. The question becomes, what is the ideal (realistic) final roster? Looking at all of the pieces, it seems as though the team should be positioned to make a push for the 8 seed next season if (and that's a HUGE IF) the right moves are made.
If Brandan Wright is the starting PF then you know the team has problems. He almost makes Greg Oden look like an iron-man. It seems like everyone would be expendable this offseason. It will most likely be a very busy one.
I think that's actually why they didn't take the Mayo trade. I think they want Bell Back, and have him play next to Curry. The front office probably wants to package Ellis/Maggette in a deal for a starting 4, have Randolph/Buike split time at the 3. If that's what ends up happening, I'm ok with not making the Mayo Deal. Tack on a top 5 pick, and you're looking like a pretty balanced team.
Doubt their master plan is Raja at the 2. Dude is going to be 34 in September and has been declining the past few seasons.
A bit hard to predict what other teams will do, but I've personally written off the next season as rebuilding already, since it's never wise to burden a rookie player with team hopes in their first season unless other moves are made. I know that having Azubuike and Randolph back will help depth a huge amount, but we just can't tell how they'll play together. (Ellis, Buike, Maggette, and Morrow all are a bit bad on the ball-movement/sharing side of the game offensively, which is a bad sign). I don't think Bell will be back either, but not because we don't want him for a year, but because he'll have offers from better teams. A downside is that as of now, none of the Warriors other than Curry, Ellis, and our draft picks have a high trade value. The rest of the team is probably not worth trading: Turiaf and Azubuike can bring back some value, but likely not something as good as just keeping them. No one has been talking about Randolph and no one has ever talked about Wright, so the only two players that can be considered prospects aren't worth enough value to get a good veteran. Maggette and Biedrins are limited to being traded for similarly expensive contracts. So, either Randolph/Biedrins have to come through, or we have to trade off some back court strength for a big man like Cohanhater suggested, though who's willing to give up a good big man these days? The best available player is probably Al Jefferson, since the Wolves are thinking that Kevin Love is better to build around. But they're not going to just give him away, plus, is that enough for us? So, probably no real beneficial trades, plus no money for free agents. That basically leaves us with the team we have, plus whoever we draft. Still don't see playoffs in the west with that; I only see about 35-40 wins at best.
I think priority #1 is finding a way to dump Maggette. There's just no way to rebuild around the youth, IMO, when you've got a player like that. And let's face it, he's not going to bring GS a championship. I don't need a prima donna trying to get his 20+ shots a night when I'm trying to have a team of young players come together and develop chemistry. Mags is anti-chemistry.
How about we go with this? pg: Stephen Curry sg: Monta Ellis sf: Anthony Morrow pf: Brandon Wright c: Andris Biedrins It's not a very strong defensive team, but you got good offensive rebounders and shotblockers. Ellis, Curry, Morrow, and Wright can score from anywhere and with finesse. The bigs can move well in transition and they work hard to patrol the paint. I think this team is very undersized as most matchups will have a few inches and a few pounds on these guys. If we can find some way to lose Maggette and keep Azu, keep C J, and continue to bolster the power forward and center positions I'll be happy. If Anthony Randolph at center could work, I would love to have him and Wright playing at the same time as neither need to have plays run for them.
Is this a cut and paste from a post last season after the draft? The more I look at this thread, the more I realize that we'll be stuck at square 1 unless we land a top 3 pick.
Ah, it's not hopeless. I sound gloomy a lot and depressed about this season, but if we can just get past this season and the next, it'll be alright. The season should play out like this: at worst, we should be picking 6th in this draft, although picking top 2 would give us the most hope, there's decent players so that we could get a solid starter even at #6. (With the crop of players, I trust the Warriors won't take another project because it'd be pretty hard to mess up this draft at the top). Just one player won't bring us into playoff contention, but this means that we'll be set for another lottery draft pick in 2011 (which is again expected to be fairly strong, although alot of the expected draftees will lack experience, so it'll be a much riskier draft). Unless the team gets shaken up by trades of expiring contracts, 2011 sees us getting about 7-14 million under the cap, even without us trading Maggette. So best-case-scenario, we'll have 2 great-to-decent young players, Ellis, Curry, Randolph, Biedrins, and Maggette as the rotation plus the potential for an above-average FA with the money we have. Chances are that we'll be able to shape that roster into something through trades or developing our players into an actual playoff team for 2012.
Has something happened with Randolph that is making no one mention him as the starting PF? I've never been really big on him (certainly don't think he''ll be an all-star) but he should definately be our best PF. He's stronger, more skilled, and a better defender than Wright and looked like he was getting significantly bigger last offseason. What happend to the hype around him where now he's projected to be behind 6 games/year Wright and Maggette version 2.0 Buike.
Yeah, basically he's out for the year and when that happens, people tend to forget about you. I wouldn't say he was significantly better than Wright. Both are projects but Randolph is more attractive because of his athleticism and ability to put the ball on the floor and his age. Wright is by far the more fundamental player, but he has played soft and has proven to be soft (shoulder injuries).
I've had two shoulder operations because of dislocations (and never had one on the other side even though I scheduled it) and let me tell you its not about "being soft." Its a genetic thing that is hell to come back from because unlike a knee or foot, its higher than your heart and you simply do not get the same blood flow and you cannot start immediate rehab, you have to wait at least a month. Its a long rehab, around 6 mos. before you are anywhere normal. I've come back from a ruptured achilles tendon as well and the shoulder is tougher.
Yeah, I've also dislocated my left shoulder as well and my older brother has had shoulder problems all his life (yet he continues to race motocross at the age of 40!). It took me one year to fully recover from my shoulder injury yet I still feel it a little bit. Me calling him "soft" has more to do with the way he plays and the time he's missed due to injury; more a figure of speech than anything. His injuries are unfortunate but I also think it has to due with the type of body he has. I was at the game against the Lakers when he injured his shoulder the first time blocking Gasol's shot. That's a lot of leverage going against his rotator cuff with very little muscle to protect against the movement.
Lottery History I was poking around to see the actual breakdown of which teams have "won" the draft lottery. Since they changed to the current weighted 14-team system (I believe in 2004), the team with the worst record has only ended up picking 1st 1 time. And that was in the 1st year. I dug awhile to see if I could find anyone who did the math, and I found it Here What's funny is that statistically, it doesn't change anything. It's like roulette, just because it's hit black 15 times in a row doesn't mean that it has a better chance of hitting red the next spin, but somehow history makes you feel like over time it should balance out.
Only 5 games between the 3rd worst record (us) and the 9th right now. The 4th worst and 5th worst records aren't horrible for the lottery, but as noted, 3rd worst has an odd penchant for luck. We have been besieged by injuries and can't even play our young guys enough anyway, so there's nothing more we can do to tank other than just be ourselves. Which is kind of sad.
This is all speculative and I'm just throwing stuff out to see if anything would stick. I want John Wall or Evan Turner at SG, but we're slated to pick third . I think either could play with Curry. I think Favors or Cousins would take time to develop and Cousins would not be a good fit. I'd move down or trade the pick if we can't get Wall or Turner. You figure Monta Ellis is our best trade bait, so I wonder what he could bring back? Would New York be interested and would they give up Wilson Chandler? If we deal Andris Biedrins, I would think OKC would be interested. They want to strengthen the paint defensively. The guys I'd want back would be James Harden and Serge Ibaka. How about Kevin Love or Al Jefferson? Minnesota wants to build around Love, but they sure don't act like it. So we could end up with a team like: PG - Curry/Watson SG - Wall, Turner, Chandler or Harden/Morrow C - Love or AL/AR/Ibaka PF - Love/AR SF - Azubuike/Morrow
In regards to your speculation, I can't see Minnesota giving up Love just yet. I could easily write a whole article on the Minnesota situation, but that would take an hour of my day. In any case, the short of it is that team is poised to end rebuilding next year, because it has a bunch of expiring contracts right now, plus the young guys ready to go. (If only Kahn didn't mess up with that Rubio fiasco.) Jefferson's the better bet to be moved if the team does decide that he's not part of the future, because has the massive contract and the "losing stigma" attached to him, but they don't need to move him. They've certainly considered it though, plus Jefferson just got that DWI, so that's another mark against him. However, he's far from a bust, still being a top 25 player, he's just getting into knucklehead territory right now. (The Wolves were rumored to have turned down Luol Deng/Tyrus Thomas for Jefferson). Plus, the need might disappear - their pick is probably going to be #1 or #2, instantly improving their guard position and making a trade with us go from unlikely to no-way territory. As far as our draft pick, I think that it's by far our most valuable trade chip. It may be based purely on hope and potential, but even GM's and owners will bite on the hype. I may personally think poorly of Cousins for example, but there's no doubt his game will translate to the NBA. His knucklehead attitude (which is probably close to the knock on Beasley or young Webber, than someone truly crazy) and poor defensive IQ has to be overlooked because of his exceedingly dominant offensive game. Or, Favors may be a 2-3 year project and not fit for the Warriors, but should easily come into his own as a Josh Smith type (the 2009 version, with a much better attitude and inside focus). I could go on about the hype and I do actually believe that the majority of the lottery will become NBA-starter material. Regarding the Knicks situation, I think New York would have a large interest in Monta. Next season their roster will look totally different, although I sense a massive fail for them. As you noted they'll likely get Amare. I could see them also getting Rudy Gay and/or Raymond Felton to fill out their roster. Ideally we'd slide into that mess with a sign-and-trade of Monta for David Lee, and maybe even accept Eddy Curry's expiring contract to give up Maggette (giving us a tremendous 2011-2012 outlook). Man, I bet this trade would have went down if Mully was still around because Donnie Walsh loved him so much. I don't think the Knicks want to give up Chandler though, because he's so cheap with his rookie contract, unless they really really fail. Man this stream of consciousness post went everywhere. What the heck was I talking about?
If Nellie is still around come Draft day giving input, and we don't land one of the top 3 (Wall, Turner, Favors)...Something tells me we move the 4-6 pick with someone looking to move up, drop back to 8-10 and take Donatas Motiejunas. He has Nellie written all over him. Remember that Nellie was in love with Sabonas way back when. This guy looks like a cross between him and Dirk.
