just for giggles, the history of Vegas over/under win total for Portland in the Dame/CJ era: * 2015-16....odds = 26.5....Blazers win 44 = 17.5 over * 2016-17....odds = 46.5....Blazers win 41 = 5.5 under * 2017-18....odds = 40.5....Blazers win 49 = 8.5 over * 2018-19....odds = 42.5....Blazers win 53 = 10.5 over * 2019-20....odds = 45.5....Blazers win 34 = 11.5 under (could have been busted by Covid) * 2020-21....odds = 41.5....Blazers win 42 = 0.5 over (Blazers won 10 of their last 12 games, otherwise...) a really wide variance. I didn't check to see if there was the same wide variance for other teams. I doubt it, but I'm not sure this season's over/under is 43.5 wins ********************************************************* pretty sure a significant factor Vegas calculates is schedule. Portland's schedule may be the most difficult in the NBA: * "The Blazers face the toughest first 20 games of the season based on their opponents’ records last season" * "This season, there are only three stretches – one each for the Grizzlies, Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers — where a team plays eight games in 12 nights. Last season, there were 36, with many of them overlapping". * there are only two teams that have five sets of 5 games/7 nights: Portland and LAC; only one other team, the Spurs, have more than 3 sets (4) * "The Hawks lead the league with 12 one-game trips on the schedule, followed by the Sixers (10) and Cleveland Cavaliers (10). The Blazers have just three, with the Pelicans, Spurs, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors having just five each". ----------------------- * Rest advantage = Didn’t play the day/night before. Opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back. ^"Rest disadvantage = Playing the second game of a back-to-back. Opponent didn’t play the day/night before. Over the last three seasons, teams are 488-384 (0.560) in rest-advantage games, 324-200 (0.618) at home and 164-184 (0.471) on the road. The Pistons have the biggest differential between their number of rest-advantage games and rest-disadvantage games. The Hawks (13 vs. 9), New Orleans Pelicans (11 vs. 7) and Indiana Pacers (14 vs. 11) also have differentials of three or more. On the other end of the spectrum, the Spurs (9 vs. 13), Nuggets (9 vs. 12), Blazers (8 vs. 11), Charlotte Hornets (11 vs. 14), Minnesota Timberwolves (8 vs. 11) and Orlando Magic (9 vs. 12) have negative differentials of three or more." --------------------------- * the first 20 game mark: "Only four of the 106 teams that have won fewer than seven of their first 20 games have gone on to reach the postseason. The last of those was the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets, who started 6-14, finished as the 6 seed in the East (at 44-38), and actually won a first round series. On the other end of the spectrum, 92 percent of the 215 teams that have won at least 12 of their first 20 games have gone on to make the playoffs. The Blazers will play those 20 games against opponents that had a cumulative winning percentage of 0.542 last season, the highest mark for any team’s first 20. Portland’s first 20 games include three against the Clippers, and two each against the Nuggets, Sixers and Phoenix Suns. They also have games against the Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. In addition to having the toughest first 20 games in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage from last season, the Blazers are also tied (with New Orleans) for the most back-to-backs (5) in the first 20 games. They have 14 back-to-backs for the season, and six of the 14 are in a 31-day stretch from Oct. 31 to Nov. 30." https://www.nba.com/news/how-rest-road-trips-and-other-factors-played-out-in-2021-22-schedule ***************************************************************************************************** that seems to be a pretty daunting set of schedule circumstances and it might go a long way in explaining Portland's seemingly low over/under of 43.5
3 out of 6 times. But, 2 out of 6 times Blazers have come in under by several wins. One time was essentially even I'd also guess that Vegas factors in injury histories. Nurkic, Zeller, and Nance all have extensive injury histories
Damn thats a really enticing number for both over and under. New coach New schemes... im really tempted to take the over because I think after the first 20 games we can probably take it to 45-47 wins. I say that because who the hell knows what the first 20 games are gonna be like. I think that'll be the most telling of the entire season. My head says under, my heart says over. I don't knoooooow.
I think it's a really good over/under because I could see this roster winning 43 or 44 games. That being said we could make a move that would make us much better than that. Billups could also turn out to be some sort of genius that makes a bigger difference than any coach ever has. Maybe Dame and CJ finally click together on both ends after not being cohesive for six seasons together. The idea of a deal and the subtraction of Terry plus the addition of Chauncey really makes predicting this team volatile. I would go over but only 45 wins... I hope I'm low because projected out over 82 games, 45 wins would have landed us in the play-ins last season and I doubt that level of success keeps Dame here.
I believe with addition of Nance it will be 44-48 win season this year. But it's really hard to say due to new coach. Billups said he going use Nurk different this year that might take the pressure off Dame and CJ. But I see we will score about the same but the shots will be better shots. But the defense side will be the telling point for this team this year. Will Dame and CJ actually buy in on that end and will the team buy in to Billups schemes at that end. To me we got offense that can win 50 plus games but the defense side has improved a lot from last year to achieve that goal.
Wait now? Stotts with an injury riddled team just got a .583 winning percentage. 72 games got them 42 wins. 82 game season works out at about 47-48 wins. Billups with this same starters and a few upgrades and health should bring 50 wins. My guess is 44 wins would be a bad season if this team is healthy. I really hate preseason predictions.
Me too that's why I want to see them in preseason games to chose my prediction. Yes I know it's preseason but at least I can see what there trying to do on defense.
If healthy and Billups is not a downgrade as a coach I think this team easily hits the 43.5 wins. If there are significant injuries then they could be under (basically always true and similar for other teams) If there are struggles beyond that then maybe Dame gets traded and all the sudden its basically a lock to be well under 43 wins. If so the team might tank after the deadline and be closer to 30 wins. So I do like the team to most likely be over, but there is a chance to be way under, so 43 is a good average. Since betting is only a simple over or under, and not dependent on the amount of wins over or under, I am a big fan of the over bet. The over under for the following 2022-23 season would be much harder to project, as this team could easily have 49 wins, gets smoked in the playoffs and Dame demands a trade. There are years ~50 wins didnt make the top8 in the west, so 43.5 wins is not much.
I don’t believe you guys can use Billups as a positive or a negative in helping make your prediction…….. He’s NEVER coached a team.
why not... there are plenty of us here who felt that losing stotts was an addition by subtraction. the new coach's projected impact was driven more by terry's departure than anything billups brings
Some around the league felt Stotts had the ability to get more out of injured rosters than healthy ones. Tough thinking a rookie coach is going to help you get MORE wins, but that’s why we play the games. Should be a very interesting season. Praying for the guys to stay healthy.
if dame & nurk are bought in and we don't lose two of our starters for 40% of the season, I don't see how we win any less than 50 games.
