Presidential Primaries

Okay. This is the first presidential related election I have ever voted where I actually had the ability to influence an income. Thrilling. (Yes I'm a dork).

I thought Obama was dead in the water after Hillary broke out the tears yesterday, but he's fairing much better than I expected.

Check out the caucuses:

Colorado: Ob 64 Cl 35
Idaho: Ob 75 Cl 23
Kansas: Ob 73 Cl 27
Minnesota: Ob 67 Cl 23
North Dakota: Ob 61 Cl 37

I have no idea how the delegate systems of the individual states work. And I'm pretty sure, that no one at CNN or CNBC does either. But there's an insider at Daily Kos who thinks the delegates are going to break about even when it is all said and done. Which would be a shocker given my feelings coming into this race.

 

Looks like he's going to run the Alaska caucus as well:

Here are the upcoming: Washington, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana.

He'll lose Texas. How Obama draws workers votes in Ohio and Pennsylvania will probably decide this.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing @ Feb 6 2008, 12:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>What is your opinion SST, does Obama have a chance versus McCain?</div>

I think the republicans are going to have a hard time translating their primary victories to the general election because of the war issue. They have to go hard pro-war to win the primaries or they won't survive, but the majority of people in this country are decidedly no longer for the effort. I think this is part of the reason Ron Paul is still making some noise: he's the only conservative who has gotten in touch with republicans who are not in favor with keeping troops aboard. If the war effort turns around, which it conceivably could (and hopefully will), then it become a dead heat again. Until then, I have to imagine that Obama and Clinton, despite how disgustingly populist they are running now, still have to be considered the front runners.

 

Ruh roh. Looks like Clinton might have called this one too soon. This is apparently a press release her campaign sent out.

HILLARY'S BIG NIGHT CONTINUES
Southwest to Midwest, Clinton Picks Up Two More Toss Up States
Two more closely contested toss-up states have gone for Hillary Clinton.

MISSOURI
Barack Obama outspent Hillary by $300,000 in TV ads in Missouri. He also benefited from the endorsements of high-profile surrogates across the state such as Representatives Carnahan and Clay, and Senator McCaskill, all of whom actively campaigned for him and appeared in ads on his behalf.

Despite these challenges - and with the help of Kansas City Congressman Emanuel Cleaver and Former Majority Leader Dick Gephardt - Hillary Clinton won this important toss-up state.

_____________

With 1% of the vote left, Obama just pulled 4000 votes ahead.

 

Obama's really struggling to pull Latino voters. I don't know if it's a racial thing, or if it's a commitment to the prior Clinton. Or, perhaps, the fact that he can't move people whose principal language in Spanish like he can move people whose principal language is English. I think it'll be a fight in Texas. Regardless there's a lot of states upcoming that are either caucuses or have a large African-American population. Obama is probably going to have a hot streak before the going gets tough.

 

For both parties I have some concern that things won't get concluded via the primaries and we might have some kind of brokered convention with one side trying to pull the carpet out from the other. I think that'd be absolutely disastrous for all involved.

-----------------------------

I completely agree. What makes this increasingly likey contingency even more scary is the way I have heard many democratic politicians speak of this possibility as good ole exciting politics. The primary rules in the democratic party are jive to begin with -- superdelegates? I think you'll see a real backlash if it goes to the convention. And the politicians who speak otherwise are so out of touch that they think people actually want them to be the ones to pick the candidate.

 

Well tonight is Washington, Nebraska, and Louisiana for the Democrats and earlier in the day was Kansas for the Republicans. I'm sticking to the TV set because, as I said earlier, I am obsessed with this election season and completely a dork.

As an Obamamaniac I am actually really worried about the next two weeks. Obama has large leads and should win in the next eight elections or so, but he absolutely needs the bump. I think he is going to have to clear 55-60% of the remaining pledged delegates to overwhelm Clinton's domination of the Superdelegates. I also think Texas and Ohio are going to be tough battles. Neither is a caucus or has a sizable African American population. Furthermore, Ohio is a closed primary meaning that only Democrats can vote. And Obama has done well in states in which he can court independents to the table.

Earlier in the day, Huckabee won in a landslide in Kansas and I am one of the few who thinks the Republican ticket may not be wrapped up. Huckabee is perhaps the most comfortable of any politician in the race in front of the camera. He's incredibly charismatic, and now that Mitt is out of the race, I think voters will begin to pay more attention to his campaign. I actually agree with very little of Huckabee's platform, but find him so endearing that I could see why so many voters have pledged support. Still the beginning of a brilliant political season.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BG7 Lavigne @ Feb 9 2008, 08:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Obama should win all of these tonight (except mayber Virgin Islands...). From waht I've seen from the early exit polls, Louisiana may be closer than expected.

Washington it going to be a huge rout in favor of Obama, and Nebraska should be a comfortable win as well.

I think Obama will win Texas, but lose Ohio. He will win Texas commandingly if Ron Paul suspends his campaign, which its looking more likely that he does, since he is being contested for his seat in Congress, and he is now going to shift his focus on getting reelected there.</div>

Yeah. I've only seen the demographics on the exit polls from LA but they don't look promising. Only 10% of the voters are under thirty, and a full quarter are over 60. Not very promising.

I wanted to clarify my earlier Huckabee comment. Here's how he wins: if McCaine doesn't get the necessary 1000+ delegates by the convention, Romney's delegates get to decide between the two remaining candidates. If the delegates get that option, I see them going Huckabee. I see a brokered convention being very possible in both states.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 9 2008, 10:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>It's official, Obama wins Louisiana. he's leading %53-%39.

Even more headlines and momentum for him.</div>

Again, this all doesn't really matter. He has to win these races. The next big test will be Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Texas -- all of which favor Clinton. Especially Ohio, which is closed to Independents and Republicans.