SF Giants Top 5 Prospects for 2011 UPDATED AFTER THE WHEELER TRADE 7/6/11 The giants are in first place, but they need help, and in a hurry. Winning the world series last year was amazing, but lets not dwell in the past for the purposes of this list, i am leaving Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford off of this list, and concentrating on players in the minor leagues. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.Gary Brown CF September 28, 1988 (Age 22) Gary Brown is having a great season in A ball with an OPS of .873 and 34 stolen bases, and should advance to AA sometime soon. He hasnt shown a great deal of HR power (7), but the doubles (21), and triples (6) are there, and he is projecting to be an above average major league CF. coming out of college his biggest knock was his walk rate, but he has walked 26 times this year, showing an improved eye, and has boosted his OBP up to .389. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. Francisco Peguero 5'11" 195 lbs CF (OF) June 1, 1988 (Age 23) Francisco Peguero has done his best to work his way up the minors with the Giants, and is in AA. his slash line of .331/.370/.492 for the season is impressive, and he is on the fast track to the majors at this point, he was pretty raw as an international free agent signing at 16, and is now putting it all together. With him and Gary Brown both holding the most value at CF, we could deal one of them for a much needed bat for the pennant run without too many tears/lost hours of sleep. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. Eric Surkamp 6'4" 190 lbs LHP July 16, 1987 (Age 23) Alot of scouts opinnions differ on Surkamp. Most expected him to dominate the younger leagues coming out of college, and he did. He has a low 90's fastball and a great curve and a developing changeup, and he mowed down 18-20 year olds easily...what alot of the scouts DID NOT expect, was for him to continue to dominate as he moved up the ladder. This year in AA he has put up astounding numbers to the tune of a 1.61 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 10.3 k/9, and a 3.64 K/BB ratio. These numbers are amazing and thusly he deserves this #4 spot IMO. MANY pitchers have carved out stellar careers with 92 mph fastballs, and i think Surkamp has a chance to be a solid #3 starter in the ML. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. Heath Hembree 6'4" 210 lbs RHP January 13, 1989 (Age 22) Heath Hembree strikes people out. to the tune of 55 K in 30 IP this season. Holy Crap. He is currently in AA, and if he can keep this up, he very well could be up in the majors this fall as our Craig Kimbrel, although our bullpen has been fine, you can always use another flame-throwing strikeout machine. He has been closing games all year, and doesnt appear to be slowing down, in fact his K numbers have gone UP since the jump to AA. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5.Kyle Crick 6'3" 225 lbs RHP November 30, 1992 (Age 18) This young fellow was just signed and has pitched 5 innings of pro ball in the fall league. He slots in at 5 because i love power arms, and i needed to put someone here after wheeler got dealt. His fastball sits at 92 with heavy tail, he has an above average slider, and an average change, and at 18 years old, i have high hopes for the whippersnapper ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Honorable Mention Joe Panik 6'1" 193 SS October 30, 1990 (Age 20) Our first round draft pick this year (#29), Panik has wreaked havoc on rookie ball so far with a .962 OPS. His bat was thought to be ready to go out of college, and this is just rookie ball, but damn, its nice to see. He projects to play 2B in the ML, he doesnt have the strongest arm, but if he can slot in behind Sanchez in a couple years as a .280/.350/.420 guy, i wouldnt be suprised. thanks for giving this a read and GO GIANTS!
Good read. I'm getting impatient waiting for the G's to move Surkamp and Brown up a level to see if they can sustain their success. Surkamp in particular- it'd be nice to get a read on whether his stuff will translate to better competition. Like you said, a 92 mph fastball is good enough to get by with if you excel in other areas. I'd still trade him in the right deal though. Also great to see Panik signing and mashing immediately. The G's got ripped for that pick a bit but the guy seems like a perfect 2B and #2 hitter of the future who will be on the fast track to the big league team. Very good OBP guy. What do you think of Thomas Neal and Hector Sanchez? Neal was one of the more promising prospects in our system but didn't light it up in AA and really lost steam there. In AAA this year hes putting up .312/.375/.439 yet I never hear anyone excited about the guy any more. I guess his lack of power from the LF spot isn't very desirable though. And Sanchez moved from A to AAA a few weeks back and his average and OBP actually went up thus far. Switch hitting catcher who is good with the glove. People thought we would give him a shot to play in the majors before the trade deadline but that doesn't seem likely.
i loved Neal last year, but his lack of power so far is semi troubling, he would have been the next guy on my list though actually. His power numbers dropped significantly last year, but i kinda chalked that up to the eastern league, it ritually depresses hitting numbers (especially power numbers) to the point of laughable most times...and so far this year he has 2 homeruns in 52 games Basically it boils down TO ME that NEAL needs to hit for some power to make the next step, because right now, i would rate schierholtz ahead of him...now if we needed to deal Nate for someone, do i think that Neal could be a suitable replacement at the plate? Sure, but nobody is raving about Neals defense or arm that i know of, and those are some of Nates strong points. overall Neal is more of an LF and Nate can play a mean RF, so he has more value. Sanchez i am excited about! definitely small sample size at AAA so far, but damn we need a catcher who can hit a little, and if he keeps it up, he will be in the majors for sure in september if not sooner, and getting an audition for the playoffs if we make it. another guy i like is chucky jones, hes just a beast, and super young. he is out with appendicitis i believe, but im really rooting for him (for ANYONE) to step up into a legitimate power hitter.
Don't know a ton about the pitchers in our system and I'm going only off of stats and scouting reports but as far as the "big name" guys go I'm a bit skeptical of Surkamp. Like I said, I'd move him NOW if it brought back a solid C or LF no questions asked. Hes not a blue chipper but a decent SP prospect that could be a 4/5 maybe even 3rd in the rotation? I don't want to undervalue a prospect like that but we're not lacking in starting pitching this year or next. Our window of contention is now and Surkamp seems potentially prone to performing worse as he gets to AAA or the bigs. Its nice to have him around but I'd gladly ship him out to give ourselves a better chance of contending in the next season or two. I'm pretty high on Hembree and Wheeler. Both have concerns about inconsistency and being wild but they're both young. If you can't tell I'm kind of a whore for power arms because I think they're important to have in the playoffs. Not just random power arms but guys who are good AND throw hard. Obviously everybody wants those but we're so privileged to have such great scouting and pitching development that we can be picky. Its not just luck in my opinion. The Giants are good at finding pitching talent and cranking out MLB quality arms. Wheeler and Hembree are those kind of guys. I'm pretty confident they'll turn out to be solid major leaguers. We drafted a few more power arms in the draft that are years off as well. Is Runzler still being turned into a starter? Hes another guy I would trade if someone wanted him just because we're so deep in the pen and we've got Lopez/Affeldt already. Of course he'll be nice to have around next season as well should Affeldt leave or as an emergency 6th starter (I'm kind of assuming Vogelsong signs somewhere else after this season BTW). He was rushed to the majors so I don't think its a bad sign that hes back in AAA. Hes talented and if he figures it out he'll be valuable whether as a starter or reliever.
nice yeah i have a soft spot for surkamp as long as he keeps his era under 2.00 lol, the guy is just flat out dominating still, so imo, we keep him untill he proves he is not greg maddux wheeler seems to be coming along a little slowly...hes 21 already and still in A ball, and not really lighting the world on fire...i would love nothing more than for him to be a #1 guy, but i just dont see the progression, ala bumgarner, where he was chewing his way through the minors hembree seems like a lock to be a quality reliever in the ML Runzler...he had a great cup of coffee in 09, and then struggled a lil last year and into this year, maybe he isnt cut out for relieving? i heard the same rumors about stretching him out to a starter, but seems his lines are still like 3 innings at a time, and he is just getting shelled...he can bring it, but wis walk rates need to come way down. hes walking 7.8/9 at AAA right now...overall his 2009 season is long gone, and he needs to re-prove himself imo next year is vogelsongs second arbitration year, so we will keep him for sure unless we trade him, and might even work out a longer term deal, i dcould see him more than happy to do like a 3 year/10 million after everything he has been through just for the security...and even if we just arb him next year, we have a 3rd year of arb the the next year, so he is sticking around affeldt has a team option for 5 million, with a $500,000 buyout, so i would say he is gone for sure you like any obscure hitter types?
Almost immediately when we drafted Wheeler I always pegged him as the type of guy who has insane talent, can't quite reel it in all the way, goes from uber prospect to obscurity, then pops up a while later as a DIRTY relief pitcher. I'm shocked that Vogelsong has arbitration left after so many years in the MLB. That's good news though I'm also trying not to get too high on the guy. Hes very good but my negative side keeps telling me that teams will eventually figure him out and his success will diminish. Until then though he can continue to be our absolute BEST starter. As far as bats in our system there doesn't seem to be a lot outside the guys you already mentioned; Belt, Brown, Peguero seem to be the consensus top 3. Then you've got Panik who could be in that company soon. Chucky Jones seems to show flashes of developing into a good player. Last year's second round pick, Jarret Parker seems pretty decent. I'm getting excited to see Hector Sanchez but I don't get the feeling Sabes will call him up any time soon.
what do you think about connor gillespie? he has put up some pretty decent numbers this year (.296/.373/.467) as a 23 YO in AAA, i like him alot, but think he is kinda stuck behind pablo and belt, as his only real spots are 3B and 1B...
Wow those numbers are much better than what I thought he was putting up. I thought he was another one of those guys who slowly faded into obscurity as his numbers got more and more pedestrian as he moved up each level. Hes improved his numbers since moving from AA to AAA but that's not uncommon in our system. I always thought of him as a 3B/2B type but it looks like hes never played anything besides 3B and 1B. Like you said, hes basically screwed as a 3B/1B with poor power. Pablo is planted at 3B and Huff at 1B. Then there's Fontenot, Burriss, Belt, Tejada, Hall (DeRosa too?) in the mix. Hes doing well but not exactly forcing his way onto the roster. I always sort of pegged him as another Frandsen, Matt Downs, Burriss, Rholinger. Call him up when you're in desperate need of an IF. Never really has a stranglehold on a roster spot. Certainly not pushing for a starting job. Those guys were middle IF though which we generally need much more. Maybe if Fontenot/Burriss are gone next season for whatever reason (don't really see why they would be though) he can stick as a backup IF.
i think if his bat played in the ML like it is doing in AAA, we should find a place for him. word is that he really can not play defense at ss or 2b though, so he cant really hack it as that MI utility guy...i would think he would have some value to another team though, especially one with no young corner infielder options i guess he might be a frandsen type though AAAA kinda thing, too good for AAA but not good enough to hack it in the bigs. heres hoping that SOMEONE (Neal please) steps up with some power and forces the issue though
Gary Brown had a nice steal yesterday in the futures game, a guy who can swipe 50 bases at the major league level would do a world of good for our innabilty to score runs
Isn't there a bit of concern about his ability to steal? Hes got 35 in A ball and hes been caught 14 times. He'll get better with time but so will opposing defenses and catchers/pitchers. I've heard you need something like a 66% success rate as a base stealer to make it worthwhile. I'd love to put Brown on the fast track but I haven't seen many indications that he'll be moved up any time soon. Surkamp got 12K in 7 IP yesterday.
brown is still learning the intricacies of stealing bags, but his speed has been described as the fastest in baseball, something like less than 4 seconds to first, and from the right side, and 35/49 is 71%, if he can keep that about there and maybe even improve, he will be great
chuckie jones not doing so hot in low A so far to the tune of .250 slg still have high hopes for the kid, hes just 19
My list: 1) Brown 2) Surkamp 3) Peguero 4) Hembree 5) Panik Honorable mention: Crick, Hector Sanchez, Ehire Adrianza, Runzler. Not sure whether to classify Brandon Crawford as a prospect or not. Surkamp is growing on me. Now that the trade deadline has passed I would really like to see him promoted to AAA. AA is a pitcher's league and a nightmare for hitters (Peguero suffering a bit since moving up is a reason I have him a bit lower). AAA is a hitter's league and will be a much better test. I'm pretty high on Hembree. His K/9 rates are fucking ridiculous. 4.4 ERA in AA. No reason to rush this guy given our great bullpen. I'm loving the Panik pick so far. Adrianza hitting .286 with a .368 OBP in San Jose. Apparently hes got a great glove at SS. Likely sticking in San Jose for the duration of the year but should be interesting to see how he adapts to AA next season. I like what I hear about Crick but hes only 18, pitched 5 innings in rookie ball. Can't put him above Panik yet. I like what I hear about Sanchez too. Switch hitting catcher who is solid on defense and decent with the bat. Needs more seasoning in AAA I reckon but long term I love having him should we decide to make Posey a part time catcher. And then there's Runzler. Wildly inconsistent and being stretched into a starter. Sabes indicating that they got a lot of calls on him near the deadline. I think this trade deadline showed that the front office values him more than we originally thought. Seems like hes still a valued prospect in their eyes but its hard to peg exactly what they see in him. What do you think of the Neal for Cabrera deal? I'm going to give it a chance just because I haven't seen Cabrera play much at all. I think I had pretty much given up on Neal already. Most project him as a career 4th OF yet he seems to only be able to play LF and he can't hit for power. People always railed on Schierholtz for being a corner OF with no power/great bat but he had value because he was a GREAT defensive player with good speed and a so-so bat. To my knowledge Neal is an average fielder as an LF and nothing special in the speed department either. I think the emergence of Peguero also made them very comfortable with moving Neal. There's also Keischnick (.267/.319/.438 with 13 HR in AA) and Pill is killing it in AAA and has played a little LF. As for Cabrera, I agree with those who say the deal makes no sense because hes like Tejada 2.0. Apparently Bochy/Sabes and crew think he is more capable of playing SS than Tejada. Which sounds feasible. Tejada is godawful at SS, pretty bad at 2B, and decent at 3B. I don't expect Cabrera to be like Brandon Crawford in the field but Uribe and Renteria weren't worldbeaters last season and its not unbelievable to think Cabrera is capable of fielding like them. His numbers are almost identical to Tejada but he does have 38 RBIs. Again, Rent, Uribe, Molina, etc. had some awful numbers but they were all good in clutch situations and situational hitters. Its a stretch to think he'll be as clutch as those guys but hes worth a look. If he provides Uribe/Renteria level defense and can get up to a .260ish average like last year then I'll take that. Between the SS, C and P spot we're giving the opposition 3 free outs every time they come up. Something has to give at SS between Cabrera, Tejada, Fontenot, Crawford. Let it play out and let the best man win or use some kind of platoon.
i liked neal, but with his power numbers falling completely off the map, he likely isnt going to set the world on fire...that being said, we probably could have had cabrera for free after waivers the thing about cabrera is that yeah, he is tejada at the plate, but a slightly better fielder, so i guess he is the smallest of upgrades. i know small sample size, but he seems nice in the field so far. runzler i would love to develop into a nice bullpen piece at least, i did a write up on him a few years ago, and his uncle pmed me because i had the wrong picture up lol, he was happy to get the burn for him though
