With all the changes made to the Blazers roster and the talk about 3 point shooting I thought I would do a little digging into this. The comparison is of last year compared to where the roster is going into the season this year as the team sits now. A couple caveats I used numbers for the last 2 years except on Curry because he sat out a full year, but I used numbers from the season prior. I put total shot attempts in there to show how often guys were shooting. Next I will break down open 3’s vs contested 3’s. Some interesting takeaways as I look at it. Big Z for 3 Aminu shot the most 3’s of all players tracked, 619 the last 2 years. Zach shot 33% last year on 121 attempts, he will have a lot more looks this year. Buying low The new look Blazers are a lot more balanced on 3’s in both % and attempts but well below last years team %. Almost all of next years team is coming off their worst 3 pt shooting years. Wing Man Bazemore and Hood will need to shoot better with open looks. Teams are going to challenge them to make open 3’s the same as they did Harkless and Turner. The great unknown Simons will be counted on not only to create offense but to knock down 3’s. Simons has demonstrated in small sample sizes that he can do both shooting 34% from 3 and a knack for getting into the paint. Little and Trent may also be counted on and different points of the season and neither has proven to be an above average 3 point shooter at this level. Minimum Contract Anthony Tolliver has the best 3pt % and the most attempts of all of the new Blazers. This was a sneaky good pickup by Neil Olshey. Especially early in the season as this teams gets its legs under it. A vet like Tolliver will be counted on to come in and knock down open looks.
As a math guy, I like what you're doing. However, in the larger picture, it's not definitive at all. Why? Spacing is different. With Dame/CJ, imagine what happens to the percentages of the ARRIVING players when the defenders are 1 foot FARTHER away. Without Dame/CJ, imagine what happens to the percentages of the DEPARTING players when the defenders are 1 foot CLOSER.
My next breakdown will be open 3’s v contested. These are hard numbers and can start a basis for where this team is next year. The biggest things I took away were Zach was a good 3pt shooter for a center. He has a lot to prove to be a good stretch 4 which this team needs. He shot a lower % and far fewer then Aminu who everyone has thrown under the bus. Someone needs to replace Curry’s 3pt shooting. It may be a combination of people but he shot at a high clip and a good %. Spacing on the second unit looks like it will be a lot better as well.
1) Looking forward to the next breakdown. 2) A lot this year depends on Zach - crossing my fingers. 3) I love Aminu, but GS didn't guard him, yet he didn't go off. This cost Lillard a lot of energy. In fact, he had none left. 4) Ant won't replace Curry's 3FG%, but he should draw a LOT more fouls, and contribute more to winning. 5) Re:spacing - From your lips to God's ears
Gerald Henderson and Napier shot better in their 1st year in Portland playing with Dame/CJ than their previous seasons. Curry shot better too but the same as the year before and the difference wasn't significant Hood and Stauskas shot worse in Portland than the year before, although I suppose you could put a small asterisk on Hood because of being a mid-season addition and the adjustment factor Aminu shot a lot better in his first season with Portland, but after watching 4 years of Aminu, I'm not sure his shot is influenced by floor space. He's just weird
