There's about 10 games left, so it's about time to keep one eye towards the playoff rankings. If the season ended today we'd be the third seed and face Milwaukee in the first round. If we won, we'd (presumably) have to face Cleveland and Atlanta after that. As for our own seed, Cleveland is playing well and has put a healthy 3 game distance between us and them. That's a lot of ground to cover in 9 games, especially when Cleveland is playing so well. Below us is Toronto (1.5 games) and Washington (3.5 games). Washington hasn't really been right for the last 30 games, so I think it's safe to say they're staying where they're at. Toronto's a closer call, but I say we stay ahead of them as well. With Derrick (presumably) coming back we should actually have a full bill of health and a modestly easy schedule to close out the season. But we've been up and down all year, and Toronto has a cream-puff schedule to finish out the year, so ya never know. As for our first round matchup, Milwaukee has two games on Miami, but they're not playing well at all and IMO have been different since the Brandon Knight trade. I think they're the favorable matchup. As far as the teams we might have to face........Cleveland looks scary now. They just trounced the Grizzlies and have been playing like the team everyone thought they could be since they've gotten Mozgov. We are 1-1 vs. the Mozgov Cavs and 0-2 vs. the Hawks and play both of them before the season ends. A second round matchup of Hawks-Drakes might be an upset....the Drakes are 3-1 vs. the Hawks this year. That'd be fortuitous for us. We're 4-0 vs the Raptors.
I think I'd rather the Bulls be the 4 seed. But.... the road to the NBA Finals is going to lead through Lebron and Cleveland though anyway I think. The Bulls should be fresher with an easier NBA opponent in the 1st round, but of course we'd be getting a fresher Cavs team most likely in the 2nd round vs the 3rd. Its hard to say whats is best. Other than Cleveland does indeed look scary.
Pau's a champion. I like our chances of getting out of the first round. If we can minimize the effect of Brooks and Hinrich as our PGs and Dunleavy as our SF, we could give Cleveland and Atlanta a touch match. Unlike the regular season, the teams we face are going to give it their all. They'll play their starters 48 minutes if that's what it takes. They'll study game films of each game and adjust to our schemes. I agree the Cavs look scary. Their record is really good, and when you consider how they had a not-so-good start, the record is even more impressive.
Normally, I'd agree with the idea that the Bulls are going to have to beat the Cavs at some point so it doesn't matter when, but Rose's situation leads me to want to delay the Cavs series until the conference finals. As I've said before, I don't believe the Bulls have any chance against the Cavs without a high-performing Rose. There's a better chance that Rose will be firing on all cylinders with about 6 weeks of game action under his belt. Gimme the 4th seed, please.
The only good thing about playing Cleveland earlier would be that two of their big three have no playoff experience, if they get through the first round without a challenge Love and Irving might face us without knowing what competitive playoff basketball is all about. Though admittedly I don't know how much of a factor that will be. Pau, Noah, Taj, Rose and Niko all have big-time post-season experience, that will be the main edge we will have over Cleveland no matter when we face them.
If Derrick Rose isn't playing, experience won't help us beat Cleveland, either. If Kirk Hinrich is playing 33 minutes a game, we also don't have any sort of chance. If Mike Dunleavy is playing 32 minutes a game, we won't beat the Cavs.
If E'Twan Moore plays 33 minutes in the playoffs, we don't have any sort of chance. Its totally possible that guys like Snell and Mirotic take a step back in intense, super physical playoff action. I hope not, but it could happen. We all know that Dunleavy has a higher PER than Snell and the 2nd highest TS% on the team, right? He also has the 2nd highest 3 point % behind Pau, who doesn't shoot many. He's also a low usage, low turnover guy, who makes a good 5th man glue guy at times. There are certainly times to have him on the floor.
If E'Twaun Moore plays 33 minutes in the playoffs, then I agree 100% we'd be in serious trouble. I'm quite sure nobody wants to see him play 33 minutes ever. Mirotic has played in the last two Euroleague Final Fours, I don't think anyone is worried about his big-game experience as he has plenty. Snell is a different story, as he only has 5 career playoff games, but Dunleavy only has 14 so it's not a huge difference. Since February 1st, when Snell started getting consistent playing time (31.5 min over 23 games), he has a much better TS% and eFG% (.614, .591) than Dunleavy (.547, .519). A lower TO ratio (9.5 to 10.8). A higher scoring average (11.2 to 8.8). Plus he's shooting 45.0% from behind the arc to MDJ's 40.7%. I think everyone would agree that there are times to have Dunleavy on the floor. I don't think anyone wants to see him playing 32 minutes in the playoffs, which he had to do last season because we didn't have any better options. The same thing goes for Hinrich, we didn't have any better choices than to play him 33 minutes is last year's playoffs. Outside of Snell's 46 minutes and Nazr's 5, the Bulls had a 7-man rotation in last year's playoffs: Butler Noah Hinrich Dunleavy Gibson Augustin Boozer This year's top 7 looks just a little bit better: Butler Noah Rose Gasol Mirotic Brooks Gibson/Dunleavy/Snell There's really no comparison, actually.
Yeah, I don't see any way Toronto catches up, we are two games up with 9 to play since we own the tie-breaker. Not with our schedule: NYK @mil DET @CLE @ORL @MIA PHI @BKN ATL Even if we lose 3 games, TOR would have to go 8-1 with Lowry questionable? They're 4-6 over their last 10, I don't see it.
Yeah, it looks like the 3rd seed, but Toronto only plays one team the rest of the way that has a winning record, so them going 8-1 isn't out of the question.
