Okay, this is an easy question to answer, just throw me what you think is the highest percentage we land Chris Paul. A lot of things have to work for us to land him, but I just want to see if some people think we have a higher chance than others or what and you can explain why you say your percentage (it would be good for those who throw out a high percentage why they think so). If the Mods don't feel this is thread worthy, feel free to close the thread. Anyway, I think there is about a 10% chance he is a Blazer. First off, I think the Hornets won't trade him till at least the trade deadline if he does not like the teams direction and they could even wait tell next summer. On top of that, we have to go at it with plenty of other teams and beat there offers, plus, we have to be able to let go some of our guys namely guys like Batum and/or Oden possibly, and we all know how Blazer fans and management feel about those two... Anyway, I hope he is a Blazer, but kind of doubt it.
5% I don't have any confidence in Larry Miller and his puppet GM being able to put together the pieces. j/k 20%, but only if they are willing to budge on Oden, which I would do, but would do knowing it is a huge risk. I'd want Okafor in return if Oden was traded, too.
See if we got Okafor, I would be fine with it. Okafor is what he is and does not have the potential Oden has, but he seems a little more healthy then Oden and is not exactly a scrub. He is a decent, proven player. No Oden, but then again, Oden could be no Oden if injuries keep derailing him.
I think it's 50/50 if he in fact is traded...Never felt higher about a superstar coming to Porland, especially when we made his wishlist!
Okafor hasn't missed a game in three full seasons. I'd take his 18ish PER for 82 games for Oden's 23ish PER for 20 games. It's a big risk, though, because Oden could dominate the league. That is beginning to look less likely as time goes on, though.
I think the chances of him being traded are small, but I think we have the best chance if he is traded. So 20%.
To an extent, yes. I honestly think Hornets will ask for Oden and Batum at first and if we don't oblige, they will turn to Orlando to try and work a three way deal where Paul goes to Hornets, Jameer and Okafor go to third team (though, I do have a tough time seeing someone take Okafor back when it is not Paul coming with him), and a bunch of assets going to Hornets. If that does not work out, maybe they come back to us taking one of Oden or Batum since I honestly think they will like our younger assets then Orlando's, and our expiring contracts are just as useful as Carter. This assumes he is even traded at all.
Take it for what it's worth, http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/68352/20100725/circumstances_make_paul_to_magic_unlikely
I posted my thoughts about that in another thread, so I will say it here as well: It is all talk IMO. I do believe they would want to flip Okafor to a third team (but who the hell wants him if Paul is not coming back to them as well?), but if they really needed to, they would take Okafor to get Paul. I am pretty sure Paul Allen would take Okafor with Paul, so that gives helps us
I'm going to be more optimistic. I personally think Cho wants to make a splash and will be willing to do a little more than expected in order to get CP3 over here. That said, I think LeBron is more in CP3's ear than anyone on this board even realizes. So I think it is more like a 30-35% chance he stays in New Orleans due to the fact that he's being heavily influenced at this point. So for the remaining 70%, you now have to factor in the reports that LeBron is asking CP3 not to go to Orlando or New York in order to keep a rivalry by him staying in the west. So that factors into any percentages. And the reports that Orlando doesn't want to blow up their team to take on Okafor leads you to wonder if Cho won't offer up enough to take on Okafor that Orlando won't. So I think our percentage at this point might very well be around 40%. I think we have more to offer and Cho has more need to make a splash. And just can't think of any offer out there that N.O. gets from another team better than us. Still think Orlando, Dallas and staying in New Orleans comes heavily into play, but we are in the drivers seat at this point.
The highest percentage is 100%. I think we have about a 30% chance. We have better things to offer than most teams, but I don't know if we are willing to give up as much of it.
I think all of our percentages go higher if the meeting Monday between Hornets management and Paul go sour and he does not buy what they plan on doing or whatever. If then, Paul still wants out, I think the Hornets will do it to try and get as much possible because if they wait any longer, what they get in return diminishes and they also run the risk of him completely bolting and they get nothing. If the meeting fails, the chances are much higher for us and I do think we have the most to give, but whether we are willing to let go, who knows.
Remember, all percentages over 5.3% are considered likely. During this off-season: 20% Before the trade deadline: 33% Beyond that I wouldn't predict, because the further on you go the more unknown opportunities might open up.
A nice summation of my thoughts and about the same percentage I would guess. Paul stays in NOH or comes to Portland that's my feeling.
If he gets traded 10 times, one would likely be to the Blazers? Anyhow, I think it's 5% or less chance.
So you think he's staying in NOH? Or if not where do you see him coming...other then the bulls? Haven't seen you around much Denny are you swimming in a giant pile of coins in your personal vault called the S2 money bin?
He's got a longish term contract, and a guy behind him who could replace him reasonably well if they decide to have him sit out the rest of that contract. I would tell him "you have a contract, live up to it or else." And if I were considering a trade, I'd take my time and refuse any deal that doesn't bring back an all-star, picks, and some other players.
