The Ringer: Best Case, Worst Case: Portland Trail Blazers

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by trailblazer18, Oct 12, 2017.

  1. trailblazer18

    trailblazer18 Record will be 14-5 after Nov. 24th.

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  2. SIeepwalker

    SIeepwalker Nurk is the team leading scorer by Nov 24th

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    Best-Case Scenario: The Blazers from two seasons ago.

    do this guy know what best-case means ?
     
  3. trailblazer18

    trailblazer18 Record will be 14-5 after Nov. 24th.

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    He didn't write anything new or insightful. Just summarized the thoughts about the team from the last two seasons.
     
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  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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  5. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    How is that not the best case scenario?
     
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  6. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Blazers scoring leader through 11/23: CJ McCollum

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    51 wins and a 2nd-round blowout? Many people (in here) seem to be suggesting that as a mid-line performance based on the team's performance since Nurk's arrival.
     
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  7. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    The idea, at least in my mind, is that the team from 2 years ago had Plum as the center - and as good as he was, Nurkic is clearly an upgrade. The 2 Rooks are also upgrades.

    So, everyone the same from 2 years ago - Plums +Nurkic > everyone the same from 2 years ago.

    No - eliminate "everyone from 2 years ago" from both sides and you get

    Nurkic - Plums + Rookies - Crabbe > 0

    Math.
     
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  8. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it'd be great if that's how things worked. But they don't. That "math" doesn't take into account how we massively over-performed that season, and got super lucky in the Playoffs. This team would have to over-perform (not as much, but some) to have the same success.
     
  9. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    I do not believe in this "over-perform" stuff. The team performed. Period. This is a historical fact. It might have over-achieved against expectations - but that is more on the expectations imho. It is not that they played better than they could - because this is a fallacy. There is no 110% of performance for an athlete.
     
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  10. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    The Blazers center position is upgraded, but their outside shooting will be worse without Crabbe (and from a cap perspective it was the right move to dump him).

    So yeah, the Blazers should be better in certain areas with a healthy Nurkic in the lineup, but are they going to be light years better overall in a totally loaded Western Conference? I guess anything is possible, but a 42.5 over/under is probably about right. I think a ton depends on what kind of strides they take defensively, and if Aminu and Harkless can provide some kind of outside shooting in the 35-37% range. If they can't, then the are going to struggle at times to pull away from teams (particularly if Dame or McCollum have an off night).
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
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  11. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    OK, so how does last season's performance, stack up then? Did they underperform or just perform? It was largely the same roster as the year before that outperformed expectations until the Nurkic trade.
     
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  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    The team 2 years ago figured out they can win by playing defense. Haven't seen it since.
     
  13. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    We'll have to agree to disagree. Because that team with Travis Outlaw that rattled off 15ish wins in a row was not that good - they over-performed*. It sometimes happens in sports, where things just click for a while and then the team falls back to earth.

    *Call it what you want.
     
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  14. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    They performed less than their best - part of it was injury (Aminu, Turner, Ed Davis), part of it was new system (Turner) and part of it was coasting and expecting things to be bad.

    Isn't this exactly what this exercise is? Best/Worst scenarios - I can assure you that a bad injury or two will make last year's performance seem great, but if we are talking about best scenario - this team can be better than the one from 2 years ago.
     
  15. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    I mostly agree with that, but the only hangup is that even if they are better than the team that snuck past the wounded Clippers, the West is a lot tougher this year than it was that year.
     
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  16. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    We will find out. On paper, the west is tougher. In reality? I am not certain.

    GSW is the same. On another level.
    Spurs could fall - health and age. They are not winning over 60 games again.
    Rockets - on paper better. We will see if it works for them.
    Thunder - should be better - even if Melo wants to kill Westbrook by the 3rd week.
    Minni - better on paper. Will likely be better - but not an awful lot (They are still missing shooting and will miss Rubio setting people).
    Clips - will be worse.
    Utah - Amazing defensively, even worse on offense. They will be good - but I suspect not as good as last year.
    Denver - Maybe better, maybe worse, I am still not sold on them being tons better. We will see.
    PHX - Same hot garbage
    LAL - Better. From hot garbage to warm garbage (with excellent rating)
    Mavs - If better, it is not by much, more likely to decide to tank
    Pelicans - Great front-court, same crap elsewhere. Probably the same if slightly better.
    Griz - Worse
    Kings - LAL level - warm garbage

    Some teams are better, others worse. Not sure it will mean much for the Blazers. For every team that finished behind the Blazers that got better there is a team that finished above them that got worse.
     
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  17. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    Best case would be a good thread. How about 52 wins and going 6 games in the second round? Not best case enough? ;)

    Best case is obviously a couple of key injuries to other teams, catching lighting in a bottle for a month, and winning the championship. The roads to lots of championships have been paved by injuries to other teams. Luck is part of the equation. Maybe we'll get some.

    :cheers:
     
  18. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Egg-zactly! I don't wish a career-ending injury on anyone. I'm only using my voodoo dolls for season-ending injuries. ;)
     
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  19. Trackjack

    Trackjack Well-Known Member

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    We are better due to that games we play so far that we are attempting to play defense. Plus it looks like our bench will be a lot better. Turner looks like he fitting in finally and the 2 rookies look like they can help. I won't be suprise if the bench will be top 10 or better.
     
  20. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    Best case is championship. Period.
     

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