Somehow, the Blazers have beaten the 2 best teams they have played in the last 6 games while losing to the 4 worst teams in that same stretch. Not only did they just beat the Celtics, they did so on the 2nd of a back-to-back at the end of a 4-game East coast road trip. Go figure! But I saw something that has in part, showed me how the Blazers can get better. The scary thing is, if they have to rely on this to do so, we are in for a bumpy ride at the least for a while. Noah Vonleh - the training wheels are starting to come off. Noah can do things no other Blazer on this team can do. He is a physical specimen that when he gets a little confidence, starts to become an imposing presence on the court. Embiid went down over and over again when he and Noah collided. Vonleh was like an 18-wheeler that had just hit a bug at 60 miles an hour. He still struggles to finish around the rim.....right up to where he throws down an absolute facial over some poor helpless defender that leaves bodies reeling like bowling pins. He needs shots and more opportunity. What happens in most cases is he sets a screen and then sets another screen or gets the ball and then gives it right back to Dame/CJ. The guards need to look for him because often times he pins a much weaker/smaller player under the basket and isn't getting the ball. Help him get started and when he is playing with confidence, he can be a beast. After a couple of his dunks, he D'd up on Isaiah Thomas as well as any 'big' I've ever seen on the perimeter. The next trip down he altered a floater that had no chance of going in due to how he changed the angle of the shot. There will be growing pains but Vonleh has more of a ceiling than any other PF option on this roster. Meyers Leonard - this pains me as the consistent inconsistency and lack of any offensive game within 20' of the basket is like nails on a chalkboard to me. HOWEVER....he also can do something no other Blazer big on the roster can do....knock down shots. And when he gets going, he can knock them down like few 'bigs' in the league. When he does that, he also becomes more aggressive and although still needs to improve his rebounding, plays his best defense at Center. To me, Meyers is a much bigger reach than Vonleh because he can't/won't post up Isaiah Thomas as of now and seems so frail mentally. But still that damned potential. These 2 players are quite likely the best chance this team (as of now) has to improve and get better. Aminu is a nice multi-defensive player but his shot is so bad and his dribbling so poor that it often can negate what he does on the defensive end. I do like that he is attacking the basket more recently though. Harkless is a little more well rounded than Aminu but at times gets lost for some reason as to what is going on. Plumlee is a nice passing center that can't shoot and has no post moves and doesn't block shots. So it may have come to this. How this roster progresses may very well rest on the shoulders of Noah Vonleh and Meyers Leonard. Are you scared yet?
So you're telling me there's no chance. I kid, in the case of Vonleh. His upside, I'd say, is along the lines of, say, Clint Capella, which would be a nice addition to this team. Meyers, though, has no upside. He's a walking downside. Meyers killed Batman's parents, but not on purpose.
Lol...I totally get where you are coming from....but Meyers will once in a while give us that very rare glimpse that he could actually be an NBA player with a unique skill set. Granted, it is not nearly often enough but since 80% of this team is massively flawed, it's not like he is alone in his frequent ineptitude.
Both players has shown flashes what they could be as a NBA players. Vonleh had back to back game that he has look good. Myers right show flash here and there but somehow Stotts need stick with them for both players to improve. We not going to win a title this year so go with them either they pan out or they will run there selves out of the league.
I agree 1000%. Even if the Blazers finish the second half of the season like last year, and they won't, they still have zero chance to do anything meaningful this year. Start Vonleh and give him touches. As for Meyers, Stott's needs to pull his head out of his ass and develop him as a center, and get him shots from different spots on the floor. It's all about the future.
TBpup. your fine research makes a lot more sense than my crazy theory. I was starting to believe that the less sleep the Blazers get, the better they play.
To be less flip, here are my concerns with counting on Leonard's upside: Statistically, he has, at best, not progressed in his years in the NBA and it could pretty easily be argued that he's been regressing the past few years In terms of skillset, yes, he can shoot which is a valuable skill, especially for a big man. However, he's not consistently capable of hitting contested shots, which creates the Crabbe-like passivity. Both are a bit more aggressive when blazing hot, but it's rare to be that hot. His defense may be best at center, but it's still really poor. He's best at center post defense because he's lost when he has to make decisions and move, like defending the pick and roll. You can try to hide him at center, but if the opposing team involves their center in the pick-and-roll, Leonard is still in trouble. What that means is that a young big who doesn't bring anything but shooting had better be the kind of guy who can shoot over defenders and coolly knock down shots with a defender running at him. Leonard can't consistently do that, so his shooting ability simply isn't impactful enough to overcome his lack of defense and rebounding. He's shown no real post game or catch-and-drive game. I don't think he's shown rare glimpses of being a good NBA player. I think he's shown that even really bad NBA players can, rarely, have a good scoring night through some combination of being hot and being ignored.
Vonleh I really like.....Meyers may have broken his rookie wall finally but it's crying wolf for me....he has these flashes occasionally that make you see all this potential....then, closes his eyes, winces and forgets where the basket is.
It seems that what you are saying is that we need to help these two improve (and maybe Harkless also) if the Blazers are going to become a good team. I agree, and it seem that here are the implications of that: the team should stop focusing on the short term wins and again (what we did at the start of last season) focus on winning in the long term. As many have pointed out, what is the purpose of trying to win the 8th playoff spot? I think that Lillard and McCollum have established themselves as great scorers; now they need to give up some shots and start focusing on helping others score. Also I think their minutes should be cut back to about 25 each. The rest of the season should be devoted to player development, broadening the offense and learning to play defense. I really don't know about Leonard; I would like the coaches to get together and look at film of him in college and early with the Blazers and see if there is anything that should have been done differently. Try to come up with a new plan to fix him, to re-invent if necessary. Working with him is very difficult; because if he has a bad start in a game, he can't overcome that psychologically, so keeping him in the game doesn't help his development. Possibly just trying him each half of a game and only leaving him in if he has a good start and then keeping him in; possibly at the least this could ramp up his statistics and make him tradeable. Watching the Spurs and the Cavaliers yesterday reminded me that we don't have any dynamic mid-sized players (Aminu tries but I don't think he has the capability). I don't know if Harkless has the capability but I think he has the athleticism and the willingness; so he and Vonleh would be my main focus.
I also think that cutting Lillard and McCollum back to 25 minutes would help Crabbe's game. If I remember correctly, Crabbe was the go-to guy in college at Cal, he needs to find his old assertiveness and do more. Again, if nothing else, let him show he has some trade value. Also, the more I think about this, the more it seems a no-brainer that this particular team, at this time, considering the standings, and the salary situation and how stuck we are; needs to have a radical and deliberate approach to this problem. If they don't do it, I think it would show a real lack of leadership. It would show that leadership cannot adapt to changing circumstances.
Cutting Lillard and CJ's minutes to 25 a game will never happen, nor should it. 32 minutes.....maybe. But with ET playing more SF I can't see their minutes decreasing and for now I am liking that starting lineup change. The 3rd ball handler helps and I am not sure we lose much defensively or rebounding wise especially if Noah can produce on the boards. Right now he is not getting any calls but that might change. I agree that he gives us athleticism and size at the PF spot, a combination that none of the others provide. Now if Aminu and Harkless can adapt to coming off the bench......
@UKRAINEFAN brings up an interesting point. Olshey made a choice last summer to build this team from within, and with draft picks. This is not going to be an easy team to improve with trades. The remainder of the season, give playing time to the kids that need it to develop. We have more kids coming in the draft that will need the playing time next season.
TBpup, great write up. I do have some hope still for Noah, he seems fairly comfortable playing his role and after we ended that ridiculous period of him starting (although it looks like we may be back to that for some reason....) where he'd go out, get abused, tank then ride the bench, i think the 2nd unit has really paid off for his experience once the pressure was off a little. It'll be interesting how this new phase goes. Meyers, well - yes i agree, when he is on he shoots like few other bigs in the league and when he's not he's as terribad as few other bigs in the league. like woeful. I just feel the amount of upside we gain in his position with his skillset on nearly every occasion, is so much less than what we lose by having a 7ft scardy cat playin out on the perimeter bricking it up. he could be a role player, but that niche is so god damned fine AND its dependent on him being on point, what we see is literally one game in every 12-15 where he looks like a semi decent NBA play worth 10M a year. Like you, its the constant inconsistency, combined with the crap he says about his ability which just gives me zero hope he's going to change and use his physical gifts or improve his other lesser (but more prioritised) skills.
Great thread & analysis TBpup! Meyers Leonard can change the whole complexion of a game when he's "right", & it’s so mental with him. Doesn't take long to tell whether he is/isn't dialed in on any given night. What's strange is that his WHOLE game is connected to his confidence. If he's down, it's ALL bad. It's not that he's just missing shots - he can't seem to do anything right. It's like EVERY move he makes is wrong (blatantly obvious moving screens, forgets to box out, either looks lost or is a fouling machine on defense, etc.) But when he's on? It ALL comes together. He's not only draining 3's, he's snatching rbs with 1 hand and firing outlet passes to half court, throwing beastly dunks down in traffic . . . even his defense looks better! The way he defended Gasol 2 years ago in the playoffs was at times impressive. Didn't let him get too deep, stayed patient and didn't go for all of Gasol's head/ball fakes, & forced him into some tough shots without fouling (that even if he makes you can live with) It IS scary to admit with our season hanging in the balance that we're now looking at "Oh My" Meyers Leonard to deliver. After last night it's hard to imagine we'll see more DNP-CD's - he's going to get his chance. At least there's the hope that last night something clicked & shifted his confidence. He clearly has the physical tools to contribute if he ever learns to breath through his eyelids, a la Nuke LaLoosh.
The question then becomes: is Tater Totts a good developmental coach? From what I've seen, the answer is an emphatic no. Meyers has regressed every season he's played. Vonleh is no further along than he was when we got him. Dame's defense hasn't improved much - any improvement seems to come from self-improvement over the summer. Crabbe is the same old Crabbe, with slightly better handles that he developed on his own over the summer. Only Harkless and Plumlee may have improved under Totts - and their improvement seems to have come solely from a healthy and steady dose of minutes, rather than fundamental coaching. Identify a couple of guys who are really good at teaching and developing fundamentals. Fire Tater Totts and hire the developmental coaches for the remainder of the season. If we see progress by the end of the season, maybe extend them for next season - but no long-term coaching contracts.
I have much more hope that Vonleh can make some significant stride than with Meyers but at this point, those two have more of an ability to rise above where they are then anyone else on the roster IMO. (I'd also through Layman in there but he's not getting any minutes). Confidence helps any player but you have to get to a place where you have enough confidence to play through the DOWN stretches. Vonleh/Meyers barely have enough confidence to play through the UP stretches at this point. As has been mentioned before, it is tough for other players to get their rhythm with 2 ball dominant scoring guards. They certainly can score but neither does a lot to get other players in involved (especially CJ). An occasional win over a good team is only more frustrating by so many losses to bad teams and blowouts by good teams. As poor as the teams are that are competing for the #8 spot, I think you can spend more time developing Vonleh/Meyers and still be in the race at a .400 pace. Might as well accomplish some long-term assessment at the same time.
Not to be a wet blanket, but I think they both suck. I'll be surprised if Noah gets a second contract in the NBA. Meyers is gonna be playing in Europe in 4 years.
Noah has tons of talent, but he simply needs consistent minutes. It's all mental with Meyers. If he has confidence, as was the case in Boston, the contract doesn't look so bad. If he starts overthinking, then you're paying 10 million/yr for a lot of DNP-CDs.
