At the moment, the Trail Blazers are 27-22 and just three games back in the loss column of the Spurs for 3rd, yet also only two games ahead of the Clippers for 9th. Portland is easily playing their best basketball of the season and, record wise, in the best position they've been in at this point in each of the previous two seasons. The trade deadline is eleven days away and a lot of eyes and ears are on Neil Olshey. I don't think anyone here would agree that the roster, as constructed, is going to do much damage in the postseason (I think best case scenario is a 3/6 matchup with the Spurs where Portland wins in 6 or pushes to 7, but that is the ultimate best case). For the purpose of this exercise, I excluded the following players for obvious reason: Damian Lillard (franchise player) CJ McCollum (debatable but I'm sick of that debate to be honest ... it's been done) Jake Layman (no trade value) Meyers Leonard (if there was a buyer, he'd likely already be gone) Moe Harkless (see above) Evan Turner (see above) Zach Collins (promising rookie) That leaves seven Blazers on the roster. Who stays? Who goes? Shabazz Napier If he weren't a RFA at the end of the year, there is no debate: Shabazz would stay a Trail Blazer. However, he's having a career year in points (9.7), FG% (46.3%), 3pt% (40.7%), steals (1.3) and minutes (21.5) which could drive up his price tag. Thankfully, there's not a huge market for point guards in today's NBA and Portland has the ability to match any offer. I know we're in soon-to-be luxury tax hell, but I don't see anyway the Trail Blazers improve without Bazz on the roster. He's won a handful of games just by himself and is that illustrious back-up point guard Blazer fans have been dreaming of since the turn of the century. Lastly, he is one helluva insurance policy in case Dame or CJ get dinged up over the course of an 82-game season. KEEP Pat Connaughton Along with Shabazz, Pat has been the biggest surprise this season. To be honest, I was ready to send both he and Jake home packing after Summer League, but he has turned into a legitimate NBA rotation player, hasn't he? He's arguably our best player without the ball, his three-point shot continues to improve, and he's even showing the ability, at times, to put the ball on the floor. At 25, I believe there is still room for his game to grow. Although, unlike Bazz, Pat is a UFA so if he gets a big deal from a team that needs a starting shooting guard (wings are in high demand), he may have to go. KEEP* (within reason, if he gets anything north of 8 million a season, good bye) Al-Farouq Aminu Can Chief play the 3 long-term? If you hesitate on the answer, then he's got to go. Portland has a plethora of power forwards in the waiting and needs to find a solution at the 3. While AFA has cooled a little from downtown, he's still hovering around 40% on the year which has really spaced the floor for our guards. At 27 and entering into a contract year in 2018-19, this will likely be Aminu's final chance at a huge pay day. I love his versatility and defensive prowess, but the fact remains he's one of our realistic trade chips. Whether it's at the draft or at the deadline, I'd look to move the Chief. MOVE Noah Vonleh Can you believe Noah's still only 22? I'm not saying he is Jermaine O'Neal 2.0, but JO was around that same age when Portland moved him for Dale Davis. I'm higher on Noah than most. I see the 8-3 record Portland posts when he plays 20+ minutes a night. I see how well he and Nurkic feed off of one another. I see Portland's best overall defender and, in today's NBA, his ability to hold his own on the perimeter against a guard is invaluable. But why is he racking up DNP-CDs? Are we showcasing Ed? Are we trying to lower his value, which would be highly unethical? Right now he has no value as a trade chip and I don't see him commanding a large salary. Portland needs to carve out some time for Vonleh. It's a low-risk, high-reward proposition. KEEP Ed Davis Remember when we lost Wesley Matthews and a little bit of the heart of the Blazers left along with him? Well, it's back in the form of Ed Davis. he is the heart and soul of the Trail Blazers roster and, maybe more importantly, he's able to play nearly all of his minutes at the backup center position, allowing Aminu and Collins to log their time at the 4. Yes, he gets bullied at times against bigger centers but those players are few and far between these days. His stats don't jump off the board (5.4 its, 7.0 rebs, 56.6% FG), but his intangibles are what matter most. Dame has said countless times that Ed is the guy he would choose to go to war with. Ed himself has said earlier in the season he wants to remain a Blazer. He is set to turn 29 before July 1st and will likely receive an increase in salary (currently making $6.3 million) so I would keep him on a short-term deal. Coming into this season I was ready to move him for anything since he was expiring, but I have a hard time seeing a Blazers squad without Ed Davis on it doing much of anything. KEEP Caleb Swanigan A true throwback player. If only he was around 15 years earlier, Portland would have a gem on their hands. I love his floor vision and his relentlessness on the glass but his lateral quickness, especially on the perimeter, scares me. Can he play in today's NBA? With Portland's log-jam up front, I'd look to move Caleb for either help on the wing of a future 1st. MOVE Jusuf Nurkic Nurk Fever feels like eons ago, huh? There's no denying how impactful he is on the defensive end of the court. However, you just never know what you're going to get out of Nurk on a nightly basis. He's like Darius Miles and Nicolas Batum in that regard. Which Nurk will show up? Not to mention, he has no touch around the rim and hasn't shown an ability to finish with authority which leads to many missed lay-ups. He's a young big who will command a lot of attention on the open market, especially with the injury to DeMarcus Cousins. Portland should look to move him before the deadline so they don't have to face the decision of matching a huge contract offer to Nurk come July. MOVE What would you do?
Ed Davis is playing like a person who wants to get PAID and be a starter in this league. I think he'll command Meyers type money in the off season, money we don't have. Love big Ed but if we can get something for a player that we're not going to have next season you have to make that move. Aminu is the cheap money role player that every team is desperate to find. He would be a bargain coming off the bench. Keep him. Vonleh is going to be an all star.... in China. Buh bye. Swanigan stays, slip him into the Ed Davis role. Nurk, we get to see what the rest of the league thinks of him. any contract offer $14mill and under you match. Anything $16 mill and over you try to make a sign and trade happen.
Keep Aminu and move Ed???? Dog, lay off the weed so early in the day. It makes you utterly crazy......
I don't think Nurk is going to command this big contract that other people are seeing. I would keep him. I am always looking to upgrade but I just don't see a realistic deal that upgrades in that area. We could do a lot worse. Heck, having Plumlee back would be a lot worse imo. I would move one of Ed or Vonleh. I don't think we keep both long-term. I want to keep them both but we just don't have room to pay (or even play) both imo. I would try not to move Shabazz. I would move Chief but a lot of people disagree with that. I would be fine moving Caleb but also fine keeping him. I think Leonard (and more-so) Harkless are both moveable. IF we move Chief or Turner then I would keep Harkless. I think the guy is still of value to us. Turner is playing great lately but I would not be opposed to moving him regardless (build up that trade value!). I still haven't found a deal for CJ that makes sense for us but that doesn't mean I am opposed to moving him in the right deal. There is just not one out there (yet).
This trade deadline truly is Neil’s moment of truth. He has had plenty of time now to accumulate assets and evaluate the roster. With the team in position to move as high as 3rd seed, now is the time to balance the roster and go for it.
You need role players at reasonable contracts. That's exactly what Aminu is. We're the ones putting him in a starters role. He would be perfect coming off the bench. D and 3. I love Davis but this contract year for him. He won't be on the team next year.
They own Davis's rights, right? So they will have the money to keep anyone and everyone they want. It's a matter of wanting to pay the lux taxes eventually.
I think Davis is gone as well (in a perfect world we would love to keep him but this isn't a perfect world) but I also feel Stotts needs saved from himself when it comes to Aminu. Guy would be great off the bench or even starting (but not playing huge minutes) at the 3. Stotts isn't willing to do that though. His contract is great which means he will have the most value of players we might move. Teams might take him on even as the sweetener to get rid of Leonard (as an example). Once again, perfect world we keep him off the bench. But our previous contract issues make this not a perfect world unfortunately. He wouldn't be near the first guy I look to move but he might be one of two guys who teams only want to take on from our lot.
If we can get under the tax some other way this season then I think Paul is fine paying it next year. But not starting this year. That kicks in repeater much too soon for our timeline of competing.
That's not the argument you presented. You said they didn't have the money. They have the money to re-sign Napier and Davis if they so want to. Whether or not that's a good choice is a different matter. IF they can somehow con some Chinese league in taking Meyers leonards contract...
Unfortunately, moving Ed is the easiest way to get under the luxury tax threshold this season and postpone year one of the eventual repeater penalties. At least half the teams in the league would gladly take him off our hands. Let's hope Neil doesn't take the easy way out. Same with Shabazz, he's cheap and productive and any team we trade him to would hold the right to match any offer he gets next summer. I disagree with the OP's premise that there isn't a huge market for PGs in today's NBA. I think the opposite is true. I think PG is THE most important position in today's NBA. Sure, there are a lot of great ones out there right now, which means you need a good one to compete. Shabazz has shown he's capable of running a team and he's also shown he's an excellent defender. Most top teams already have a very good to elite PG, but there are also several other teams that would love to have an upgrade (DEN, MIN, NYK, CLE, UTA, IND, PHI, SAC, DET, CHI, BRK, ORL, NOP, PHO...). Not saying every one of those teams would be interested in Shabazz, just pointing out there is a market for PGs. BNM
Well duh, Jules. I'm well aware that Paul Allen has the money to sign everyone on the team to max contracts. So you sign Napier and Davis for $8 mill each and match a $14 mill offer for Nurk and stack $30mill on our salary cap. I know PA can afford that.
I think Ed re-signs with Portland @ $8-9M per year. He gets a well deserved minor raise. He'd still be a great roll player on a good contract. Going back to the OP's question.... Trade: - Mo ( I think there is a trade available for him out there somewhere... but maybe that is just wishful thinking) - Layman (he's not a nba player, but just filler in a trade) - Shabazz (he's one of the few that has some value. I don't see Portland re-signing him, so find a team looking for a PG. Additionally, Portland has Baldwin IV who looks to be a better fit there longer term) - Noah (this one hurts... I have high hopes for Noah, but he duplicates Ed & Ed is better right now. I just don't see a long term role for him) KEEP: - Pat... I mean " It's Pat! " (Pat fills in his role nicely. He has a big game once every couple of games. He's not a difference maker, but he's cheep & we should be able to re-sign him reasonably under $4M) - Chief (good role player on a good contract) - Ed (keep him. He's a beast!) - Caleb (rookie contract. Let's give him some time) - Nurk (keep him. There's not many better options out there. Going into free agency, Portland just has to make sure they don't fall into the 'keep at any cost' (Crabbe) mindset or the 'bidding against yourself' (Meyers) mindset)
i think aminu is a keep, but ideally not as a starter. I'd love to keep ed at a good price swaggigan - keep, too early to call anything id love to keep bazz, but if we have to include him to trade ET or something, im fine with it. meyers, my god. nurk is the tough one, as someone said above, you match if it makes sense, if its ridic, S&T it is.
Aminu is such a hard player to attach a value to, because his value is totally wrapped up in whether he can knock down swish-3s. Last season, he couldn't and he was pretty unplayable (and yet, still got played). Season before last and this season, he was/is knocking them down and then he's a valuable stretch 4. So, do you trust him to hit three-pointers next season? The season after? If you do, he's an absolute keeper and a key supporting player around the McLillard core. If you don't trust him to do so, then he should probably be moved before the deadline while he has value. Nurkic is a tough call, too. He's been a big driver in the team's defensive turn-around, but he looks like the same offensive liability that he basically was in Denver. Too many turnovers and missed shots to create positive offensive value despite having legitimate passing skills. If you think that his performance last year after the trade is his offensive potential that he can still reach, then he's a crucial piece of the future. If you think last season's performance with Portland was just a small sample size fluke and the other seasons in his career point to a career of being a good-defense/low-offense big, then he's an anachronism in this era. How I come down on those two: I trust Aminu's shooting enough to keep him. I think he'll be somewhat volatile, but what he provides when he's hitting shots is just too hard to find to toss Aminu away. Nurkic, like Sly I'd probably go as high as around $14M per year. I don't think he's worth that right now, but I'd add in a little "paying for potential" money. At that price, even if he never really pans out on the offensive end, he might possibly still be movable in a trade. Especially if his defense improves further.
