For some historical perspective: 18-19-- O/U: 41.5, Won 53 17-18-- O/U: 42.5, Won 49 16-17-- O/U: 46.5, Won 41 15-16-- O/U: 26.5, Won 44 14-15-- O/U: 48.5, Won 51 13-14-- O/U: 38.5, Won 54 One year below projections.
I think we are a high 40's win team as currently constructed. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Hassan to be as good as Nurk was last year (4.16 RPM), but think he could be a +2 guy or so which would only costs us a couple wins. Aminu+Collins+Meyers was worth roughly 10.5 wins last year. Right now, I have Collins projected to be worth between 5-6 wins in about 2000 mp--which is on the optimistic side--but I really think a 3rd year jump plus playing with Dame / better players more often (last year, he played nearly 75% of his minutes w/ Turner on the floor) will help him quite a bit. That leaves 4-5 front court wins to come from Tolliver / Skal / Hezonja if no further moves are made. I do like Tolliver's fit with this roster and especially like him with Dame and Whiteside. Had a rough year last year, but if you surround him with the right players, he's proven to be a positive player. I could see him getting close to replicating his 17-18 season with Detroit, where he was worth over 4 wins in about 1750 mp. A safe estimate is 2-3 wins in about 1500 mp with some upside for more if he plays with Dame+Whiteside for a good chunk of his minutes. Finally, we've got Turner+Harkless+Curry+Layman+Stauskas+659 minutes of Hood (worth around 7.5 wins in 6300 mp last year) being replaced by Hood/Bazemore/Simons/Hezonja If Hood starts, I could see him being worth over 4 wins on his own. Bazemore on the other hand has a bit more variance in his projection. If he comes off the bench and has a down shooting year, he's likely not much better than Turner was last year. But right now, I have him being worth 1.5 to 2.5 wins in about 1700 minutes. The rest of the guys are wild cards. I'm high on Simons, but I think he's likely worse than Curry was last year, especially defensively. With that said, I think he's the most likely in this group to be in the rotation all year.
Clippers 55.5 - Over. Jazz 52.5 - under Lakers 51.5- under Rockets 51.5 - over by a lot. One Seed. Nuggets 50.5 - Over by a hair. Warriors 47.5 - under by a hair. Trail Blazers 44.5 - over. Slow start but end strong. 50 win Spurs 43.5 - Way under. Misses playoffs. Mavericks 41.5 - over Pelicans 36.5 - Over. Kings 35.5 - Over Timberwolves 35.5 - under Grizzlies 27.5 - Under. Worst record in the conference Suns 26.5 - Over.
I think the big difference from last season will be Whiteside (obviously) and Simons. I hope and expect that Simons is played like a burgeoning star, not a role player. He should get a lot more playing time than Curry did.
I'm hoping we see some benefit from Mario and Baz, but I'm guessing those two will be more treading water moves. Hood, Simons and Whiteside have the chance to really help this team excel. Of course, I'll be ecstatic to see Mario or Baz tear it up, I just have my doubts.
Yeah, the starting front court will be all new. One guy's never played for the Blazers (Whiteside) and one guy (Collins, assuming he's a starter) didn't start one game last season and only had one start in his 2 seasons. It's a lot of unknowns, but with potential. Seems Utah (and other teams) gets lots of praise for what they did, while the Blazers seemingly got a center off the trash heap. Whiteside led the NBA in rebounds per minute last season and was 5th in blocks per minute. He was also #1 in defensive rating, defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage, for whatever those are worth. If Hood can find a way to score consistently, that should really boost the offense over the season.