The Bulls figure to be near the top of the Eastern Conference this year, and have a small albeit legitimate chance to make it to the Finals. I think most people agree that if everyone replicates what they did last year that that outcome won't happen. So it's useful to think about what would have to go right for the Bulls to beat the Cavs and one of Spurs/Rockets/Warriors in a series. Here's my take: 1). Continued improvement from Derrick Rose. This one's a gimme, but it's important enough that it still ought to be #1. In particular I think we'll need Derrick to be a dangerous cog in a non-PG dominated offense and improvement in his outside shooting, which was the biggest reason for his sub 0.500 TS%, a disastrous number for your highest usage player. 2). One of Gasol or Noah to accept a bench role. I prefer benching Gasol and starting Niko, but I have no idea how feasible this is compared to the alternative. My best guess is that Gasol didn't take a below market contract to come here, be an All-Star starter and 2nd team All NBA in order to get benched so I would guess Noah's more likely to take the demotion in stride. In any event, it's hard to see Hoiball operating to its fullest capacity with both of those guys starting again. It kills spacing. Gasol/Taj or Noah/Mirotic make more sense as the primary lineup combinations. 3). We need to be a top 5-ish offense. A weird criteria given our history, but nevertheless true. I think our biggest room for improvement is on this side of the ball, mostly due to personnel and the assumption that Hoiberg's an offensive coach first and foremost. I don't see the defense being dominant next year, so we're best off aiming for it to be at least "competent" and trying to play to our ceiling on offense. 4). Noah needs to return to a plus defender and garbageman......as a center. Last year Noah had the second lowest ORB% of his career, the lowest block % of his career (by a decent margin) and shot 49% within 5 feet of the basket. For a 7 foot hustle player turning 30 those are scary numbers. If we become an offensive oriented team I think Noah regaining some semblance of his old self is key for maintaining enough grit to still be credible on the defensive end. I think it's way easier for him to do this as a center than PF. Part of this might be easier because I expect his role on offense to change and be able to play closer to the basket instead of doing so much of the point center stuff but of course it's anyone's guess how much of his health he still has. 5). Mirotic needs to be a part of our go-to lineups. A few days ago I was playing around with the best 4-man lineup combinations the team used last year. What caught my attention is how many of them included Aaron Brooks and Mirotic: http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/161061...e=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=4&CF=MIN*G*100 There are a number of ways to explain this, but my guess is the combination of ball handling + spacing makes guys like Rose and Butler especially hard to defend. Mirotic is especially important because Brooks is always going to be a situational player due to his position and defensive limitations. I think there's a very good chance that the team will need to make an effort to maximize the talents of Mirotic more than the other bigs in order to play to our ceiling. 6). One of Doug or Snell needs to become a decent +/- guy. This has been talked about often enough and I think it's widely agreed upon that one of these guys needs to pan out for our wing rotation to be playable in the playoffs.
Great stuff, rosenthall. I wouldn't argue with any of it. I expect the offense to be improved, particularly the "early offense." However, what I'm more interested in seeing is the team's "late offense," that is, when the shot clock is running out and it's "improv time." Lots of games are won or lost at these times when the set offense goes out the window. The ball figures to be in Rose's hands and subject to his decision-making. Rose needs to break down defenses like the MVP Rose, but with weapons like Butler, Gasol and Mirotic, his game is going to need to "grow up."
Rosenthall, Your list really makes things seem bleak because I can't imagine all of those things going right this upcoming season. The Heat won with two top five guys and an allstar. Could the Bulls win with that? That feels way more promising. Jimmy Butler was there for stretches of last season; D. Rose has been there in the not so distant past; and any of Noah, Gasol or Mirotic could be an allstar. Transplant, your sig is hilarious.
I don't think it's as bleak as you think. Most of the time a lot of things have to go right for you to be a serious contender. The Warriors last year were a great example. Have your best player go from "All Star calibre" to "MVP" Have your highest paid player graciously accept a bench role in favor of a 2nd round draft pick. Have your do-it-all glue guy become a max player. Have an aging-vet who lost his game two years ago be the Finals MVP, and a lost young player find his game at a new position. If you line it all up, it looks pretty improbably. We need D. Rose to come back strong, Niko and Jimmy to keep their momentum, make certain lineup changes without destroying morale and one of our young guys to find their games. Not likely, but stranger things have happened.
Stranger things have happened, and you know, things always seem worse when you're at the end of a coaching stint and players are tired of hearing the same voice. I'm not suggesting that Fred Hoiberg is going to unleash some hidden potential through his offensive masterminding -- just that everything about this team was less than the sum of its parts last season. Maybe any new competent voice (provided he is indeed competent) is exactly what this team needs to help things that were tipping in the wrong direction. The counterargument would be that unless Hoiberg has magical healing powers, the chances of D. Rose recovering to what this team needs are pretty slim.
The Bulls are a decided dark horse for the NBA title. Rosenthall gave the darkness of that horse some dimension. I'm guessing that the Rockets, Grizzlies and other longshots have similarly daunting lists. I don't expect the Bulls to win the title this coming season, but I do expect them to make it interesting. Looking at the roster, you see a lot that's good, but wonder where the great will come from...they're going to need some great. A couple of their players have been great and a couple others may have it in them. Like I said, interesting.
This sums up the issue rather succinctly. When I think about where the great might come from, four possibilities come to mind: 1). Derrick 2). Jimmy 3). Niko 4). Doug #4 might seem loony given last season, but I think there is a possibility that Doug gives us some "great" if he finds his role. Otherwise he might be terrible.
I'd only add that Pau can give you some great from time to time even at his age, but I agree that he's past the point that you can consistently rely on him being a difference-maker. Yeah, the McDermott greatness thing is a serious reach. He was undeniably great in college, but we all know that this means nothing.
I openly admit that using the words "great" and "Doug McDermott" together in the same sentence with regards to his NBA production sounds absurd. I'm not expecting him to be "great" in an absolute sense, but I think there's a possibility that he can be a high usage/high TS% player in a given role, which is what I was referring to. Pau is statistically prolific but he doesn't seem to push the matchups too much. He's kind of like Boozer that way, but I agree he should still be able to roll back the clock from time to time.
I had high hopes for McDermott so his rocky start was disconcerting. While we all know that college success ensures nothing in the NBA, I saw McDermott consistently score at Creighton, against quality competition, in a variety of ways and despite the fact that every single game the defense was designed with him as public enemy #1. Reminded me of Bird at Indiana State, but more athletic (yet not quite as big). I haven't given up on him by any means, but my enthusiasm has certainly been dampened.
