In a quest to determine my own expectations of the Blazers this season, I thought it would be interesting to identify every team that finished .500 over the course of the last 18 years, and see what they did the year AFTER their .500 season. Now I know, statistically speaking, the below numbers don't draw any solid conclusions. They're a baseline. So many questions lie beneath those static numbers. Like, if a team was .500 one year, what was their record the previous year? Were they on their way up? Were they on their way down? Or....who did they pick up/draft/lose after their .500 season? Did they change conferences? Divisions? Coaching changes? What about teams that won 40 games? Or teams that won 42 games? Should they be out of scope? So many variables. Eh.....I'm starting this conversation, that's all. I highly encourage those of you that don't suffer from ADD (like me) to take what I've provided below and dissect it, elaborate upon it and build upon it to form a solid prediction for where the Blazers will finish this season. I suppose the main reason I'm doing this is because I want to temper my expectations for this season. The Blazers, as a .500 team, are walking in to this season under some extremely unique circumstances. Historically speaking, how many .500 teams, on the rise, not on the decline, add three lottery picks to their squad? - (Oden and Bayless obviously, but Rudy would have been lottery this season as well) - One lottery pick, in Oden, stands as an "all time" prospect! I can't help but try to temper my expectations, because lately my expectations have been flying off the handle like I'm a 16 year old Blazer fan again. No levity. No logic. Pure emotion......trying.......to........separate logic from emotion....but my logic is feeding my emotion......I NEED HELP. Example: 1989-1990 teams finishing at .500 are below Atlanta - the following year, 90-91, Atlanta finished at (43-39) Houston 90-91 (52-30) Seattle 90-91 (41-41) 90-91 @ .500 Indiana 91-92 (40-42) Seattle 91-92 (47-35) 91-92 @ .500 None 92-93 @ .500 Orlando 93-94 (50-32) Indiana 93-94 (47-35) LA Clippers 93-94 (27-55) 93-94 @ .500 Charlotte 94-95 (50-32) 94-95 @ .500 Denver 95-96 (35-47) 95-96 @ .500 Charlotte 96-97 (54-28) Phoenix 96-97 (40-42) 96-97 @ .500 None 97-98 @ .500 Orlando 98-99 (33-17) - strike season - .660 winning % Houston 98-99 (31-19) - strike season - .620 winning % 98-99 @ .500 = 25 W’s 25 L’s previous year Minnesota 99-00 (50-32) - .610 winning % Seattle 99-00 (45-37) - .549 winning % 99-00 @ .500 Orlando 00-01 (43-39) 00-01 @ .500 Indiana 01-02 (42-40) 01-02 @ .500 Milwaukee 02-03 (42-40) 02-03 @ .500 None 03-04 @ .500 New Orleans 04-05 (18-64) Moved to the Western Conference Milwaukee 04-05 (30-52) Portland 04-05 (27-55) 04-05 @ .500 None 05-06 @ .500 Indiana 06-07 (35-47) Chicago 06-07 (49-33) 06-07 @ .500 New Jersey 07-08 (34-48) Washington 07-08 (43-39)
Well I do have ADD, so I just skimed it. Looks like a mixed bag . . . many teams did worse and many teams did better. But I wonder if any of those .500 teams had the number pick for next year. I know the Blazers didn't, but with Oden being out a year, it is like the Blazers had the #1 pick . . . and #11 pick . . . and Rudy.
It really depends on the stages the team is going through. Think trends. If a team was lower then the year before it went .500 then it is showing improvement and it should be expected to continuing improving unless it suddenly implodes. While if it has declined from the previous year the team has problems and should find a competent GM Stat. I would think Portland is a little like Chicago a few years ago without the Ben Wallace Gaff.
Exactly. To me, it's almost like you can throw out all history regarding previous .500 teams. The Blazers are breaking new ground, potentially. The biggest jump is Charlotte 95-96 @ .500 Charlotte 96-97 (54-28) Quick Google check, Charlotte drafted....Kobe and Tony Delk in 96. Lol. Ok....Vlade traded for Kobe. How did Charlotte do that? Another quick Google check, I think that was Glenn Rice's best season. When he won the All-Star MVP. Weird. Am I off on my years? It only took Vlade and a really good Glenn Rice to improve the Hornets by 13 games?
I got to wonder if Vlade had a bigger impact that first year in Charlotte than Oden will have. Because Vlade was a seasoned pro by that time. Nah, we are still talking Vlade and Oden. 13 games looks like a good starting base . . . now let's aim higher because it's Oden and Rudy and Bayless. Are your expectations being tempered? : )
The first 25 games is going to be a bitch for us this year! I wouldn't be surprised if we were around 500 at that point.
To dovetail this analysis with another statistic, the average win improvement after acquiring a #1 pick is 11 games. Now, we're already starting off with 41 wins, but factor in the thought that GO is the best big man prospect since Tim Duncan, that the best player in Europe is joining us and we're also adding the SL MVP and I think we could match it. As has been stated by other posters, however, we're in uncharted territory.
The Best comparison may be Orlando with Shaq and Penny or San Antonio with David and Timmy with Orlando being the closest, heck we have the the next great big and are thinking of signing the once thought " He could be as good as a young Penny" Livingston.
Yeah, I'm predicting between 48-52 wins this year for this team, or a 7-11 game improvement (as opposed to a 7-11 convenience store).
I sometimes wonder if Shaq would have stayed if they had won the trophy, then I remember the money he signed for and really it would be stupid to not leave for the money. Just wish it had not been to the Lakers.
Had Shaq stayed in Orlando and Penny Hardaway not ruined his knee, that Orlando team could have been special. They were so well constructed...two superstars, one a beast in the post, one a slick perimeter player, and good, solid supporting players in Nick Anderson, Dennis Scott and Horace Grant.
At the end of next season we'll pretty much be at the same point as Chicago was when they made that Ben Wallace Gaff. Hopefully we learn from that mistake.
Nice research, Professional Fan! Why Charlotte fall back in 95-96? Did Orlando fall back in 99-00 or was their good record in 98-99 a fluke due to the small sample size of the strike season?
