Since Terry started coaching in 2012, Portland has been among the leaders in 3pt shot attempts and makes. The rules were making it tough to defend players and Stotts/Pop/et al realized the importance of the 3pt shot. In 2013, Wes, Dame, and Nic were all top 10 in threes made and attempted per game in the entire league. We were consistently going smaller and smaller with guys like Nic and Dorell Wright playing PF, with Dame sliding to SG, etc. Meyers Leonard was shooting threes, and we thought he was a unique piece in our roster and attack. We, along with the likes of GS/HOU were essentially revolutionizing the game. Fast forward three years and now everyone is doing it. Pace is up, positionless, 3pt heavy basketball is in. Currently, there are 70 guys averaging at least 5 three point attempts per game. In 2014, there were 42. And the teams who were the trailblazers in playing this way like GS/HOU are now doing it better than anyone else, and have more talent than 95% of the league, while we are trending downward and our offense getting more and more stagnant. So what's the next big trend in basketball after this three point revolution? If we want to stay ahead of the curve, is it best we develop our talents? Are big men and post play going to make a comeback? We won't be able to beat GS at their own game. And our talents are far inferior in pretty much every respect as is. I get the feeling that Neil gives very little thought to roster-building and style of play, but maybe I'm not as perceptive to what he's doing?
I think Milwaukee and Philadelphia may be on the bleeding edge of the next big trend with their insane length. Guys like Simmons, Middleton, Covington, Antetokoumpo, Embiid, Maker make it incredibly difficult on their opponents defensively, and most of those guys are very young and will only improve in their shot-blocking and passing-lane disruption. I could see a super-long team being precisely the antidote necessary to possibly overcome the pace-and-space trend.
Ya that's what I was thinking too. Philly can put together a lineup of Simmons-Covington-Saric-Holmes-Embiid. They're all huge and have long arms. And the speed to play defense. Scary. So on our roster, we have Collins, and maybe Nurk if he can remain healthy and figure out his offensive game. Man this needs some work.
From a pure math standpoint, three pointers should be at least half of every team’s shots because of the reward vs shooting percentage. This means every player on every team should be able to shoot 35% or better from anywhere on the court. As larger players get better at ball handling and shooting, the demarcations between positions will blur further and further. I agree that length with agility is the next big threshold, but that's a 10-year thing, not a three-year thing. If we want to chase the next big thing, acquire young players with length, range, and agility (Collins, Nurkic, Vonleh) and ride out our current stars while Golden State and Houston play out the current paradigm.
When you can switch all five positions without giving up any weaknesses, your defense can be pretty much unstoppable.
It has been so long since we've had a physically imposing team. The game was completely different, but I miss our early 00's teams when we even flirted with the idea of playing Sheed at the 3, with a 6'8 Pippen at PG. Hell, we don't even have superior athletes anymore. Who's our best dunker? Dame? And he's tiny in comparison. To an extent, we had the pieces with Nate's teams, but he was so rigid about conventional positional roles, that we never got to unlock that team with BRoy as a full time PG. (another indication of how much teams are copying this 3pt craze is Nate's Pacers being top 10 in pace).
Yeah but the only thing that really makes both of those teams unique.... are their two young international stars. How many years have we been waiting for the next Magic? It's not easy to find guys who are 6'9" + who can play like that. But there are lots of smaller guys who can live in the gym and master the 3pt shot. So if we are talking trends, my money's on the 3 pt shot. Not saying Philly and Milwaukee can't win it all, just that I don't think the tread will go that way unless we see an abundance of "freaks" developing in the youth leagues. And again other than LBJ that does not seem to have happened even after all of Magic's success.
It took 22 years between Magic and LeBron (with Shawn Livingston in between), to get just one... but now in 12 years we have two? In the 90's, you have Sabas and Manute Bol shooting threes, but now you have probably 10-20 centers with a decent three point shot. Remember when PF's shooting threes was really really weird? As these skills are shown on TV, kids will mimic them. It takes time, but as kids see players their size handling the ball, they'll practice that more, and get good at it. I bet in 8 years we'll have two dozen 6'8"-6'10" combo guards in the league. Will they all start? Probably not, but they'll be there.
efficiently defending the swish3 should logically be the next league wide focus. If everyone wants to shoot 3s, become the best at defending that. obviously length can help do this, but there are other factors as well. like not opening up underneath for a layup line. so yeah, maybe having smothering perimeter defenders and an all world rim protector. or someshit.
That's where overall length has to increase. You can't have two shrimpy guards anymore, because you need to switch every pick.
robotics replaces refs...coaches will challenge calls by pushing a button and will coach from a gaming console and have valet parking
As for game changes vs player trends, I think the 3 point line will move out about a foot, to a point where the league average drops to .338 (to be in parity with the league average .507 two-point fg%). I think this should be a thing that happens every three years. As the percentages change, the three point line moves in and out so that neither shot is more important than the other. Just make it standard game maintenance, like the salary cap or roster size.
Are they really that hard to find? I think freakishly athletic wings with ball handling ability and playmaking skills have been abound, but they aren't getting noticed until recently. Batum has been averaging 5 assists a game for like 3 yrs now. Harden isn't 6'9, but he led the league in assists and is physical freak. Kirilenko was amazing, but he never got the credit he deserved for how versatile and long he was. TMac put up nearly 7 assists a game on a slow paced team back in the mid 00's. Grant Hill and Penny were also amazing talents with ridiculous physical tools. Same with Pippen. All these guys were ahead of their time unfortunately.
Awesome post. Long term 76ers will also rely on Fultz's production but he might be the only shorter guy on that roster getting heavy minutes. Both have a very tall forward with great passing skills, creativity, length and defence. Simmons is a better passer, Giannis is a much better defender. Long term I think 76ers have a much bigger potential because Embiid is three times the player Maker will ever be but a lot could change roster wise.
