What kind of month has it been?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by such sweet thunder, Mar 19, 2015.

  1. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    The Bulls have basically played without three members of the team's core since March 1st. Derrick Rose's last game was February 23rd, Taj's was March 27th, and Jimmy Butler's was March 1st. I would never argue that the roster is in a better position because of the injuries. We have no idea how long it will take Rose, Butler and Gibson to return to the court, and when they do, we have no idea of how much they're going to be able to contribute. That said, I'm wondering what people think about how the team has fared over the past month?

    Greg Popovic makes two arguments when he discusses his decision to curtail player minutes during the regular season. The first is that he wants to preserve his players for the playoffs. I find this rationale to be difficult to discuss since we have limited information. Somewhere in the depths of the Advocate Center is a person or group of statisticians, working on formulas to see how much playing time impacts playoff production. I'll bet there are similar employees with just about every team in the league. But we don't have access to those figures and analyses. I feel like there's a correct answer to the questions about playing time (and that I'll ultimately be vindicated :-)) but as of right now, it's just educated guess verses educated guess.

    The second rationale Popovic makes is more interesting, that he limits playing time so that role players can emerge. The Bulls have been 4-6 since the beginning of March which is not what you want to see consider the middling schedule. On the flip side, in the absence of the three core players, Niko is putting up all star numbers, 20.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 1 steal, 1.2 blocks on a .566 TS%. Tony Snell is cementing his role, with 10.6 pts, 4.8 rebs, and 1.4 assists on .521 TS%. Aaron Brooks has recovered as of late from what was a brutal February to put up 16.2 points, 2.2 reb, and 4.1 assists on an average .498 TS%. Doug McDermott is starting to put things together, and even Joakim Noah is showing some signs of rounding into shape.

    My question is this: ignoring the injuries themselves, has this been a good month for the roster because of the player development or bad because of all the losing? And if you believe that it's been a good month, how does this inform what you think about Thibodeau's short rotations?
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2015
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Teams don't win playing so many inexperienced players.

    Guys on Philly will put up good numbers, but they aren't even a playoff team in the Least Conference. Those guys are really talented, too. We don't have some monopoly on talent.

    The rotations at 8 or 9 deep are fine.

    The rotations now are still short with guys playing big minutes. Particularly Snell, who is playing Deng/Jimmy minutes.

    The thing is, we are most certainly better off playing Jimmy every minute possible.

    That we are playing our scrubs and filling in bench minutes with Kirk (still!) and Nazr, etc., and still pushing .500 (4-6, one win shy of .500) is coaching.
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Also, Popovich is resting guys that are in their mid and late 30s.

    Look at Duncan's playing time over the years. I noted at 29, Noah's age, for comparison.

    upload_2015-3-19_18-31-6.png

    This is not 1990s stuff, it's through the 2000's.
     
  4. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I think the month has been good for the Bulls.

    Usually you need a good performance or two from an unlikely guy in the playoffs and I feel much better about that possibility now than I did in February. Snell and Mirotic are legit players.....that's pretty big. If Niko were a FA this offseason I'd expect him to get a max contract from someone. He's a star.

    I actually wouldn't be surprised if Thibs deliberately incorporates the possibility of player injury into his player development plans.

    He's stubborn, but not blind. I'm sure he knows how good his guys are. But I think his philosophy is to start with the vets you trust, make rookies learn the basics of the trade before they step on the court, and when injuries inevitably happen, they'll be hungry and ready to go when it's time to put their helmet on and get out there.

    This would explain the minute patterns of a lot of our young guys over the years. It might serve a political function too, since vets are often proud and don't want to lose their spots in rotations to young unproven guys. If you go out and the rook plays balls out it's much easier to make the change permanent without affecting morale.
     
  5. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    Outstanding thread and great post, SST.

    First on Pop - there is no doubt that he is the #1 elite coach of his era. If he says there's a good reason to rest your players throughout the regular season, by keeping their minutes per game low and giving them nights out throughout the year. And just because we don't currently have access to the exact numbers, when 95% of the league is doing it, I think it's safe to assume that there's a good reason for it.

    Simple common sense dictates that when the game reaches crunch time (last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter), the guy who has played 30 minutes will have less energy than the guy who has only played 25 minutes. Obviously players need rest during games, or else everyone would play all 48 minutes, right? Of course, again it's just common sense.

    Back to Pops, let's clear up a few myths that were attempted in this thread.

    - He isn't just "resting guys that are in their mid and late 30s" - Leonard is only 23 years old, he was Finals MVP and All-Defense last season, and he leads the league in steals this season. He's also their leading scorer. And he only plays 32.1 minutes per game. Danny Green is only 27, and he's playing 29.4 minutes.

    - Duncan played 34.1 minutes when he was 30 (Noah's current age). As I pointed out in another thread earlier this week, players as a whole are playing about 2-3 minutes less per game now than they were 10 years ago.
    /
    Duncan is playing 29.7 minutes now at age 38, 5 more minutes than Gasol who is only 34.

    As you mentioned, Pop does an outstanding job of developing his bench. That's why you see a "nobody" come in from nowhere to give the Spurs a big lift in the playoffs- those guys have gotten serious, meaningful, non-garbage time minutes during the season, so they are ready when their number is called.

    To put it in numerical terms - Bonner is 11th on the Spurs with 804 minutes, while the Bulls' 11th, 12th and 13th have played 858 combined. Their 12th man has played 608 minutes.

    They have 11 players who have started at least 8 games, and that doesn't include Manu who hasn't started a single game. That's how you develop a bench.

    The Bulls might well be much better than 4-6 this month is Thibs would actually bother to develop the bottom end of his roster. I realize that by saying this here I am "harassing" Thibs, but if the best coach of our time can do it, that might be someone Thibs wants to model himself after.

    I have actually enjoyed this month more than any other this season. Thibs FINALLY gave Niko consistent minutes, and Niko is doing exactly what I have been saying for two years. Same thing with Snell to a lesser extent, you could see the talent he had, he just needed some game experience and for the coach to show some faith in him by not pulling him every time he makes a mistake.

    Unfortunately, I have zero faith that Thibs won't go right back to playing Taj over Niko and Kurt over Snell when the playoffs start.
     
  6. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    I think this is exactly right. A very large component of being a NBA coach is ego management and Thibs is very good at it.

    Coaches also tend to start veterans over rookies due to lower perceived variance of quality of play. People are naturally averse to risk and don't like to be surprised on the downside, all of which rookies bring to the table. If the wins and losses don't matter much, then you can just dole out development minutes. That clearly isn't the case for the Bulls this season.
     
  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I read where Thibs said that it's been a long time since a team won a championship with two rookies in the rotation. If that's true, there's every reason to not have two rookies in the rotation.

    "Nikola and Doug are two guys we're real excited we got. Nikola we waited for. And there will be a period of adjustment for him. And Doug as well. It's a big jump coming into our league. When you look back through history, you see that there hasn't been two rookies in a championship rotation for a long, long time. They're unproven. We have to be patient and give them an opportunity to grow and learn. But I like the way they fit. They're a good fit for us."

    But yeah, the armchair bloggers know more than the coach it seems.
     
  8. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    It is quite nice to see that Snell and Mirotic look to be competent to more than competent NBA players. They are not good enough to lead a winning NBA team (4-6), even with guys like Noah and Gasol playing, but its nice to see. 4-6 across an entire NBA season though means you miss the playoffs.

    As the veterans come back both minutes and shots will decrease for them, so the hope would be that they can continue to be productive in their new roles.

    Building comfort and trust on the court is vital to winning, and this is only gained through playing together in practice and games. If the Bulls look like a team that isn't comfortable playing well together come playoff time this lack of playing together will be a large part of the cause, IMO.

    My focus as a fan is for the Bulls to win the title either this year or next. Rookie / young player development is secondary and a "nice to have." Let's hope that this time for Snell and Niko will bear fruit in the playoffs. Young players do crumble quite often when the super bright lights are turned on and seasoned NBA veterans are all giving 110% to win NBA playoff basketball games.

    Putting up nice stats while losing NBA regular season games can be quite different than the play needed to be besting quality teams in the playoffs.

    So, it is good to see Niko and Snell playing well. I spent many years of my life as a Bulls fan watching young players progress on losing teams. I think it very well may come back to haunt the squad in the playoffs since the comfort level won't be there, but we'll see.
     
  9. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Its always dangerous to be comparing to the Spurs.

    The Spurs have a solid, veteran trio of guys that know they can play well together at a level to win the NBA Championship, in Parker, Manu and Duncan. When you have this, along with a great coach, you can build a system where you can integrate guys in and out and build a "winning machine" which the Spurs have the last decade.

    The key though is the rock solid foundation of great vets who play well together and a great coach.

    The Bulls don't have that foundation of great vets that play well together. The reintegration of Rose this season has been clumsy, due mostly to his decreased quality of play. The defense hasn't felt right all season with Gasol playing the 5 and defense has been the core of the Bulls the last few seasons. Noah has been dealing with injuries and hasn't been his usual self at times. The Bulls veteran core is Rose-Butler-Gasol-Noah-Gibson but those guys don't really click together yet. Add into the mix the organizational demand to develop rookies (just trying to win the title is hard enough!) and you have a mish-mash, not a crystallized winning unit.

    Until the Bulls have a foundation like the Spurs have from a player perspective, its not really very useful to be comparing the two organizations. Its been very hard to build such a foundation here on the Bulls due to Rose's knee.
     
  10. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    upload_2015-3-20_7-59-9.png

    Blue arrows are championship teams. All but two paid the luxury tax the championship season. Only the Pistons paid it once among champions.

    Red arrows indicate the smaller town Spurs paid the LT 5 times in 11 seasons.

    I would not go anywhere near comparing the two organizations. If you want to say, "but the spurs do X" and whine that the Bulls should follow suit, then the Bulls should also pay the LT. But they avoid the LT like the plague - hurts profit.
     
  11. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I wasn't the one that compared the Bulls to the Spurs. Just going with the flow to the obvious points to be made.
     
  13. bulls_with_booz

    bulls_with_booz We're Selfish

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    Well I can't go as in depth as you, I'll give my two cents:

    Niko's confidence? Through the roof. Give me the ball. I want the ball. Is this the 4th? That means GIVE ME THE BALL! That's the attitude he has. If his shots aren't falling, he can still shoot them without losing a ton of momentum. Just has to pick his spots more. It's clear to me that he is 6th man material. Makes Taj expendable.

    Based Snell isn't playing the game mentally like Marquis Teague anymore so that's a great sign. Hitting the three, driving to the basket. He's fast and has good hands. Useful IMO...has made strides.

    Moore is another guy you can say has started to carve out a niche on the team as a scrappy combo guard. Moore's game is unpredictable. I've seen him hit post faders, threes. He mostly just takes what he can get. So his role on the team is one that's essential. Kinda how Kirk was supposed to be...

    Last, well...Doug. I've seen him show us flashes but nothing really sticks with him. Sometime's he's an impact player, other times he's invisible. Mike Dunleavy isn't making this race between he and Doug hard though. I mean Mike's been average, or below average this year...his shooting is off.

    So the negatives are the L's but I don't care about them...we still try hard.
     
  14. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    Great post rosenthall.

    Mirotic certainly isn't your typical rookie, having already played major minutes in the best non-NBA league in the world, including being named MVP of the league in 2012-13. He had something like 5,000 pro minutes under his belt before he ever came to the Bulls, all he needed was to adjust to the NBA game and was good to go.
     
  15. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    So "using the entire roster" and "paying the Luxury Tax" aren't directly related? :dunno:

    How dare you question the coaching techniques of poor widdle Tommy, don't you know that he is a god to be worshipped and not questioned?? :angel:

    You're such a non-believer, I bet you haven't even sacrificed your first-born at his altar, have you?? :rotfl:
     
  16. bulls_with_booz

    bulls_with_booz We're Selfish

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    this nigga laughin at his own jokes like he on def comedy jam smh
     
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