brings up an interesting GM dilemma... Right now, Leonard is about to enter his 4th season. He is eligible for an extension (up to the max, but not the 5-yr Designated Player Max, b/c Dame just got the only one we can give out), and can sign by Oct 31. I would imagine that right now he could be locked up for cheaper than he will as an RFA next year where every team can bid for him (especially b/c 18 or so teams will have max cap space and no one to use it on...why not max out a RFA and make it expensive?). For cap purposes, he will (unless he plays 2000 minutes, which actually could be likely if he stays healthy and plays well) be a 7.6M or so Free Agent Amount cap hold (even though his QO is only about 4.1M, it's the higher of the two for cap holds). So the question is: do you a) try to lock him up long-term for "cheap" right now (underneath his 7.6M cap hold), b) lock him up if his requested contract is over 7.6M (and it very well could be, if RoLo is getting 13M) c) let him go to RFA by giving the Qualifying Offer of 4.1M or so and seeing what the market is for him (knowing it could likely be close to a max for us to match) d) look to shop him now, since we have a bunch of bigs. The issue with b) is that, if we're going to pay him a boatload anyway, we could do what Kawhi did this year with the Spurs...his cap hold was 7.6M and even though everyone knew he was getting max (or really close), they got to keep an extra 9M or so in cap space by having a lower cap number and waiting to sign until after all the other FAs did.
This is a prove it year. Give him the QO, let him get to RFA and let the market decide what he's worth. The team would be stupid to extend him early, especially since they still have the leverage.
Save a few bucks and see if he'd take 4/40. If not, be prepared to max him next year, teams will be falling all over themselves to max anyone with a pulse.
I don't think it's stupid at all. A big man with his skills, even if his improvement is marginal will be worth ~8-12 mil. I think he and his agent realize this and we won't be able to get him for cheap. But if he does have a massive improvement, he will get near max from one of the 25 other teams with space next year, and we will have to match that.
And risk him outplaying his current value? If you can get him on a reasonable (or even slightly overpaid) contract why not? If this season has proved anything, it's that capspace means shit in Portland, who cares about the flexibility his QO gives us next season? Look at all the crazy deals handed out this off-season, extending Leonard now is a calculated risk so that he doesn't get something crazy like that next year when more than half the league is going to have crazy money to throw around. You best believe he's going to get paid. Oh and I just realized the devil is in my avi. I need to get a new one GAH.
He's worth similar money to these guys, imho. http://bkref.com/tiny/x5Ll7 Here's some recent performers in the same age range and PER range.
Be honest. How likely is it that Leonard becomes a max worthy player in the next year? And even in the unlikely event that he does make that kind of leap and some team throws a ton of money at him, if the Blazers think he's worth it then all they have to do is match and theoretically he'd be worth it right? There's really no rush. Let him prove it and earn his deal, it's a win-win. Bidding against yourself is not a great long-term strategy.
I think it is extremely feasible to see him put up 15/10 with great percentages next season. And at age 23, he will warrant a near max contract. The benefit in locking him up for ~8 mil is greater than the risk of us "overpaying" for a guy who has stagnates in his development.
The QO will be an anomaly because of the huge jump in cap. The market will outbid him well over what we could extend him for now.
Sort that list by Win Shares. The problem I see with Leonard is that he hasn't played enough to prove that he's worth a huge contract.
No, I mean the QO to see what the market decides will be the anomaly. There will be every team in the league with cap space, meaning you aren't bidding against a few teams with cap space.
