Let's assume we don't trade up or trade out. What should be the best strategy with the 23rd pick? First thing to do would be to look at recent drafts and see if there's any pattern to good players taken at or after #23: 2008 23 Utah Kosta Koufos - C 24 Seattle Serge Ibaka - PF 25 Houston Nicolas Batum - SF 26 San Antonio George Hill - PG 31 Minnedota Nikola Pekovic Serbia - C 34 Minnesota Mario Chalmers Kanses - PG 35 Clippers DeAndre Jordan Texas A&M - C 36 Portland Omer Asik Turkey - C 37 Milwaukee Luc Richard Mbah a Moute UCLA - SF 39 Chicago Sonny Weems Arkansas - SG 44 Utah Ante Tomic Coratia - C 45 San Antonio Goran Dragic Slovenia - PG 56 Seattle Sasha Kaun Kansas - C 60 Boston Semih Erden Turkey - C Wow: that was actually a pretty stacked draft after #23! And that isn't even all the players still in the NBA, because I omitted some (like Donte Green) who I think are totally meh. 2009 23. Kings Omri Casspi SF 26. Bulls Taj Gibson PF 27. Grizzlies DeMarre Carroll PF 28. Timberwolves Wayne Ellington SG 29. Lakers Toney Douglas SG 31. Kings Jeff Pendergraph PF 33. Trail Blazers Dante Cunningham PF 34. Nuggets Sergio Llull PG 37. Spurs DeJuan Blair PF 39. Pistons Jonas Jerebko SF 41. Bucks Jodie Meeks SG 42. Lakers Patrick Beverley PG 43. Heat Marcus Thornton SG 44. Pistons Chase Budinger SG 45. Timberwolves Nick Calathes PG 46. Cavaliers Danny Green SF 52. Pacers A.J. Price PG 53. Spurs Nando De Colo PG 55. Trail Blazers Patrick Mills PG Fewer starters in this one, but just as many rotation players. I included Llull even though he may never come to the NBA, because he's a legit star in Europe. (I don't actually like his game much - he's sort of the White Westbrook.) 2010 23 Minnesota Timberwolves Trevor Booker F, 6-7, 240 Clemson 26 Oklahoma City Thunder Quincy Pondexter F, 6-6, 225 Washington 27 New Jersey Nets Jordan Crawford (Traded to Atlanta) G, 6-4, 195 Xavier 28 Memphis Grizzlies Greivis Vasquez G, 6-6, 210 Maryland 33 Sacramento Kings Hassan Whiteside C, 7-0, 235 Marshall 34 Portland Trail Blazers Armon Johnson G, 6-3, 195 Nevada 39 New York Knicks Landry Fields F, 6-7, 210 Stanford 40 Indiana Pacers Lance Stephenson G, 6-5, 225 Cincinnati 55 Utah Jazz Jeremy Evans F, 6-9, 190 Western Kentucky Wow. This SUCKED. And I left Armon in there just for old time's sake. Let's hope it's not like THAT. 2011 23. Rockets Nikola Mirotic SF 24. Thunder Reggie Jackson PG 28. Bulls Norris Cole PG 29. Spurs Cory Joseph PG 30. Bulls Jimmy Butler SF 31. Heat Bojan Bogdanovic SF 33. Pistons Kyle Singler SF 34. Wizards Shelvin Mack PG 38. Rockets Chandler Parsons SF 46. Lakers Andrew Goudelock SG 55. Celtics E'Twaun Moore SG 60. Kings Isaiah Thomas PG Better. Don't get me started on Mirotic. But interestingly, other than him, the best ones are all Americans. (I included Goudelock because he too has become a star in Europe. Word is he'll get $2M from Fenerbahce. He's very CJ-ish.) 2012 26. Pacers Miles Plumlee PF 28. Thunder Perry Jones PF 30. Warriors Festus Ezeli C 34. Cavaliers Jae Crowder SF 35. Warriors Draymond Green SF 39. Pistons Khris Middleton SF 40. Trail Blazers Will Barton SG 48. Knicks Kostas Papanikolaou SF 58. Timberwolves Robbie Hummel SF 60. Lakers Robert Sacre C Some players here who are about to get very rich. 2013 23. Pacers Solomon Hill SF 24. Knicks Tim Hardaway Jr. SG 25. Clippers Reggie Bullock SG 26. Timberwolves Andre Roberson SF 27. Nuggets Rudy Gobert C 31. Cavaliers Allen Crabbe SG 32. Thunder Alex Abrines SG 34. Rockets Isaiah Canaan PG 35. 76ers Glen Rice Jr. SF 44. Mavericks Mike Muscala PF 45. Trail Blazers Marko Todorovic SF 48. Lakers Ryan Kelly PF 55. Grizzlies Joffrey Lauvergne PF Too soon to tell at this point. I've included Abrines and Todorovic because they are "rising stars" in Europe (the latter voted the best center in the ACB, ahead of guys like Ante Tomic and Willy Hernangomez). So this tilts international, with Gobert of course the pick of the bunch. 2014 23. Jazz Rodney Hood SG 24. Hornets Shabazz Napier PG 25. Rockets Clint Capela PF 27. Suns Bogdan Bogdanovic SG 30. Spurs Kyle Anderson PF 32. 76ers K.J. McDaniels SF 38. Pistons Spencer Dinwiddie PG 43. Hawks Walter Tavares C Who knows with this lot? There could be players I've deleted who will bust out next year or in a couple of years. So you can't really tell. Probably McDaniels is the pick of the weak litter at the moment. Although I like Walter Tavares, who is HUGE (but slow) and had a big year in Europe.
I think this draft is deep enough that at 23 we draft an American unless we know that the international players is coming over next year. We need the player now. What I am leery of is taking a 6'8" tweener or a one dimensional player. If you can get a Gobert you do it. 23 is a pretty good spot for a Euro center......if he comes over now. I am still holding out hope for Wright, but I doubt he lasts that long.
Okay, now let's look for patterns. Big name college player, deemed too slow or too small: Mario Chalmers ('08, 34) DeJuan Blair ('09, 37) Nick Calathes ('09, 45) Danny Green ('09, 46) Kyle Singler ('11, 33) Chandler Parsons ('11, 38) Isaiah Thomas ('11, 60) Draymond Green ('12, 35) Kyle Anderson ('14, 30) These are the guys that people in Madison Square Garden would be chanting for. But for every one of these there's the fear of the next Shelden Williams. Misc. American college players: Kosta Koufos ('08, 23) Too slow? Taj Gibson ('09, 26) Too old? USC not that good? Patrick Beverley ('09, 42) A SG in a PG's body? Trevor Booker ('10, 23) Too short for PF? Reggie Jackson ('11, 24) Just a stacked year for PGs? Jimmy Butler ('11, 30) You got me. Too slow? Not athletic enough? Jae Crowder ('12, 34) Classic tweener Khris Middleton ('12, 39) Again, no ideas. Spencer Dinwiddie ('14, 38) Injury? Former blue-chippers who slid because of character concerns: DeAndre Jordan ('08, 35) Hassan Whiteside ('10, 33) Marshall Lance Stephenson ('10, 40) Not many of those, but is Robert Upshaw this year's model? Small school heroes: George Hill ('08, 26) IUPUI (!) Norris Cole ('11, 28) Cleveland State Andrew Goudelock ('11, 46) College of Charleston Isaiah Canaan ('13, 34) Murray State Mike Muscala ('13, 44) Bucknell Slim pickins. Clearly the lesson here is go with the guy from the big name program rather than the star from the tiny school. Sorry Lillard. International: Serge Ibaka ('08, 24) Nic Batum ('08, 25) Nicola Pekovic ('08, 31) Omer Asik ('08, 36) Goran Dragic ('08, 45) Nicola Mirotic ('11, 23) Bojan Bogdanovic ('11, 31) Rudy Gobert ('13, 27) Some really good players here. There are also international players who have yet to come over, but who could be good, like Tomic, Llull, Todorovic, Tavares, Abrines and the OTHER Bogdanovic. What moral(s) can we draw here? 1. Avoid small school stars. Unlikely to be great. 2. Going international is a safe bet, if only because you may never need to pay them and can find out if they're busts before you sink money into them. 3. At this point go for players with big hearts and good characters, tweenerism be damned. All Star 23-and-after team: Cs: Gobert, Jordan, Whiteside, Pekovic, Koufos, Asik (Surprisingly there are good Cs to be had this low, just don't expect them to be good at BOTH O and D) PF: Ibaka, Draymond Green, Nicola Mirotic, Taj Gibson, Trevor Booker SF: Batum, Chandler Parsons, Demarre Carroll, Jae Crowder SG: Butler, Middleton, Danny Green PG: George Hill, Goran Dragic, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Thomas, Patrick Beverley
If we need the player now and we're going to be good, then we sign a veteran. Rookies just don't tend to contribute that much in their first years, except the absolute top players. If we need the player now because we're going to suck, then we're shit out of luck, because we're picking at 23.
who we draft at 23 IMO depends on whether LMA stays or is gone, if he is gone I say take a chance on Upshaw IF our psych gal gives her OK
Like Draymond Green? (In stacked shoes) Like Rudy Gobert? Or Hassan Whiteside? Or Omer Asik? Don't you remember how much of a bust Gobert looked his first year? I have a real weakness for big PGs and every year I fall in love with one or two. This is probably the Alvin Williams effect. (Cookie Belcher was a big crush back in the day, but that was probably the AWESOME name.) But they just. don't. pan. out. Here are the big PGs that I found in the above list: Reggie Jackson Spencer Dinwiddie That's it. Don't make me go back and find all the ones that didn't (like Kyle Weaver, another crush). MAYBE Wright's good. Maybe he's Will Barton II. Fun for a fling but not a long-term relationship.
Unfortunately, the draft comes before free agency, so we really can't base our pick on LA's decision.
Olshey said they should have a good idea what the plan is by draft night and that that's when the roster building begins, not July 1st.
When I said one dimensional I was not thinking centers. I was thinking defensive minded SF's with no shot. Or tall SF with a great 3 point stroke but no in between game and average at best on D. However I would not consider Gobert or Whiteside one dimensional at all. As for Delon Wright......I have seen enough to make me think he is a true PG. Will Baron was not. Unfortunately I doubt I am alone on that and he won't fall to us. Unless there is a run on Euros right before our pick............
You can find gems outside the lotto. You have more luck with Euro's. Jokic last year and this year it'll be Hernangomez.
Hard to believe after watching that video that was linked on this board before the draft, of him running the break like a guard. I understand that does not represent lateral movement, but it sure showed he was agile. Especially for his size.
I hope we draft one of the following: Norman Powell Delon Wright Jerian Grant RJ Hunter Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Robert Upshaw Danilo Fuzaro
Terrific breakdown, Rasta. You might be onto something here, and there's sufficient sample size to find trends
I told ya, I gots a weakness. If I think of him simply as "international" then that trumps "big PG". Plus it helps that he's so young, so you can say he's a wild card. See? I can talk myself into anything.
