Worst Defense Ever?

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">It wasn't supposed to be like this in Seattle. Coming off a 52-win season that saw the SuperSonics give the eventual champion Spurs all the Texans could handle in the second round, the Sonics were looking forward to continuing their winning ways in 2005-06.

Yes, they were a poor defensive team, but they could score in bunches. Thanks to their potent 3-point shooting and ferocious offensive rebounding, the 2004-05 Sonics had the NBA's third-most efficient offense. Thus, even with a defense that ranked a mere 25th out of the league's 30 teams in defensive efficiency (my measure of a team's points allowed per 100 opponent possessions), the Sonics scored enough to win on most nights.

This year, that equation changed in a major way. The Sonics still had the great offense. Through Wednesday's games, the Sonics ranked fourth in the NBA in offensive efficiency and were just a hair behind Detroit for third, which would be a repeat of last year's performance.

Defensively, however, things went from bad to worse. Or worst, I should say. Not as in "worst in the NBA," although that certainly applies. No, I mean worst as in worst defense ever.

You heard me.
Worst.
Defense.
Ever.</div>

Source (Insider)


I can't read this whole thing, but from what is available.... the worst defense ever? I knew we were horrible, but has our defense got this bad to warrant a column on the Sonics definitively being the least productive defense in history?

 

His argument is as follows:

He defines defensive ability by points given up per 100 possessions (makes sense). He derives this value by an estimate of possessions per game for each ball club.

<div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>RankTeamPossPts/100poss<br/>1San Antonio90.896.4<br/>2Indiana92.299.4<br/>3Memphis88.599.6<br/>4Detroit8999.7<br/>5New Jersey91.999.8<br/>6L.A. Clippers94.3100.3<br/>7Chicago95.4100.3<br/>8Houston90.5100.5<br/>9Miami94101.6<br/>10Minnesota91.2101.6<br/>11Dallas90.3101.7<br/>12Denver96.6102<br/>13Phoenix98.1102<br/>14Sacramento94.7102.2<br/>15Cleveland92.1102.3<br/>16NO/Ok91.5103.1<br/>17L.A. Lakers93.3103.1<br/>18Golden State95.9103.7<br/>19Utah90.4103.7<br/>20Boston94.5104.2<br/>21Milwaukee93.5104.4<br/>22Charlotte95.9104.6<br/>23Philadelphia95.3104.6<br/>24Washington94.7104.8<br/>25Orlando90.6105<br/>26New York93.6108.4<br/>27Atlanta92.9108.5<br/>28Toronto92.9109<br/>29Portland89.7109<br/>30Seattle94.1112.4<br/></div>

Obviously, Seattle is the worst by this method for the current season. Hollinger's claim that they're the worst historically is based on difference from the average. Currently, Seattle is -9.2 pts/100poss worse than the NBA average this season on defense. Historically, the next worst would be the Clippers (-7.8) and Mavs (-7.6) from the lockout season, Mavs from 92/93 (-7.5), and the Magic from 03/04 (-7.5). He's looking at teams from the 73/74 season onward. So, relative to the league average, Seattle certainly appears to be far and away the worst NBA team defensively in recent memory.

The assumption with this comparison is that the distribution of defensive efficiency accross the league is similar from year to year. Instead of simply taking the difference from the average, I think it might be more accurate to look at the number of standard deviations from the average. For instance if you had teams with the following ratings (95, 95, 100, 105, 105) in one year, but (95, 100, 100, 100, 105) in a second year, the worst defensive performance from the whole lot would be the team giving up 105 in the second year (since they are far worse than the rest), even though the difference from the average is the same as the two teams giving up 105 in the first year.

I think I'll try to look into this a bit more. I'll use the data at B-R.com to check how teams historically did defensive in terms of standard deviations from average, and compare that to the current Lakers. I'll have to calculate the defensive efficiency numbers for the current season a little differently than Hollinger to conform to how B-R calculates possessions.

 

Alright, I did some calculations using numbers from dougstats.com, and the possessions formula used at B-R.com.

Here are the defensive rankings (points allowed per 100 poss) for the teams currently, including number of standard deviations from average (diff):

<div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>rankteamratingdiff<br/>1SanAntonioSpurs98.9-1.94<br/>2IndianaPacers101.6-1.13<br/>3NJNets101.9-1.07<br/>4DetroitPistons102.4-0.92<br/>5Memphis102.6-0.87<br/>6LAClippers102.7-0.84<br/>7ChicagoBulls102.7-0.83<br/>8HoustonRockets102.8-0.81<br/>9MiamiHeat103.6-0.56<br/>10DallasMavericks103.7-0.55<br/>11ClevelandCavs103.8-0.50<br/>12UtahJazz104.6-0.27<br/>13NOrleansHornets104.8-0.21<br/>14DenverNuggets104.9-0.20<br/>15Minnesota105.0-0.16<br/>16SacramentoKings105.0-0.16<br/>17LALakers105.2-0.12<br/>18PhoenixSuns105.60.01<br/>19MilwaukeeBucks105.70.04<br/>20GSWarriors106.00.13<br/>21Charlotte106.50.26<br/>22Washington106.80.35<br/>23BostonCeltics107.00.41<br/>24OrlandoMagic107.20.48<br/>25Philadelphia107.70.62<br/>26NYKnicks109.81.22<br/>27AtlantaHawks110.21.33<br/>28TorontoRaptors111.11.60<br/>29Portland112.31.95<br/>30Seattle115.02.73<br/></div>

The league average defensive rating is only 105.6, and the standard deviation is 3.5.

Here are the worst 10 teams historically in terms of points given up per 100 possessions, according to B-R.com.

<div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>TeamYearRatingLg. Avg Ratingdiff<br/>1Dallas Mavericks 1993115.51082.43<br/>2Denver Nuggets 1991114.7107.92.45<br/>3San Diego Clippers 1982113.9106.91.89<br/>4Denver Nuggets 1982113.8106.91.86<br/>5Orlando Magic 1990113.8108.12.04<br/>6Philadelphia 76ers 1996113.3107.61.77<br/>7Minnesota Timberwolves 1992113.2108.21.95<br/>8Golden State Warriors 1990113108.11.75<br/>9San Antonio Spurs1988112.9108.01.95<br/>10Golden State Warriors 1985112.9107.92.22<br/></div>

So, this Seattle team is second worst all time in giving up points per possession, not taking into account league average in defensive rating. But relative to the rest of the league at the time, they are far worse than any of these teams.

 

Hollinger mentioned 4 other teams in the article as the next worst defensive teams after this current Sonics team. Here, I'll compare all five:

<div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>TeamYearRatingdiff<br/>Seattle20061152.73<br/>Orlando2004108.12.45<br/>Dallas1993115.52.43<br/>LA Clippers1999110.22.13<br/>Denver19991102.08<br/></div>

If you look at diff as the key metric in measuring defense (relative to the rest of the league), the '91 Nuggets and the '85 Warriors were worse than the '99 Clippers. Like I said above, Hollinger just compares it relative to the average, but diff is number of standard deviations from average and I think that's more useful. And it seems like there's a discrepency between his numbers on the '93 Mavs and mine (B-R shows that they gave up more points per possession, but he says differently).

Anyways, however you look at it, Seattle is really, really bad.

 

oy...the game against the Lakers is becoming horrific to watch. gawr.

 

I really thought it was the raptors. but i think ever since they got who they have their defence is stepping up

 

yeah, Sonics are horrible at D this year. last year the games were at least manageable to watch...

 

I know that I've never seen a team with worse defense than this year Sonics.

It was damn near a miracle that Weiss was able to have a .433 winning percentage with those atrocious numbers.

When watching this team I don't know how we've been able to put up some of the offensive numbers that we have. When our transition game isn't working, we take some of the lowest percentage jump shots that I have ever seen in the half court.

 

I like the Sonics team but I do agree with them being the worst defensive team. I personally think that the Hawks is a close second .