a) KP is waiting for Webs to get back to have an insurance policy to trade Outlaw and Raef for a SF like Marion b) KP (and the league) is waiting for Webs to get back and show he can play so he can trade Webs with Raef for a SF like Marion c) Raef's contract isn't as valuable as we were led to believe d) KP hasn't found a good deal yet e) KP knows a better deal is coming closer to the deadline f) The Untouchable 3 ARE Untouchable, and he's turned down good and fair deals b/c one of them was in it (like LMA + Stuff for Bosh scenarios, for instance) g) Raef hasn't hit the 41-game mark yet h) Kirk Hinrich hasn't come back from his injury yet i) Other scenario j) We're baking cake, dangit...no trade will happen this year
Steve Blake > Kirk Hinrich. Surprising, yes, but true. I think we are waiting to hit that 41-game mark with Raef which will make him even more valuable. <-- This is my best guess.
A combination of these: d) KP hasn't found a good deal yet e) KP knows a better deal is coming closer to the deadline No take-it-and-run-away-giggling deal has come along, so it makes sense to keep talking to GMs and waiting, to see what further possibilities will emerge as more teams decide where their priorities lie. Short of a no-brainer deal coming along, I always expected any major deal to come closer to the deadline.
People tend to remember the occasional-really-blatant-salary-dump (or ORBSD), and have an exagerated view of what expiring contracts are worth. There are only a very few teams that would be interested in the RLEC as part of a ORBSD....and if they have nothing the Blazers want, the use of the RLEC for an ORBSD is DOA.
I don't think KP feels rushed to do anything. Really, he holds the cards with Raef's contract, young players, draft picks, and PA's money. I'm sure he's actively looking to improve his team at all times, but he's not going to panic and give into any team's demands and be bullied around. Someone will get pritch-slapped by the trade deadline.
Agreed. Another factor? The team is playing well. If it were in the 11th spot in the West, he might feel some pressure to do something. Right now? The Blazers are in the driver's seat because they don't have to do anything to have a successful season. Ed O.
That's the drum I've been beating for a number of years, but I think there is something new right now...the looming 2010 free agent class. It really is going to be one of the greatest (if not the greatest) free agent class ever. It's clear that a number of teams would like to position themselves for a shot at one of them...either out of real belief that they can land one, or to provide the semblance of a plan/hope for their fans. The 2010 free agent class (which, thanks to the hype, has caused basically all of the major free agents to resist the idea of signing beforehand with their current team, as most big stars end up doing) makes the idea of dealing RELC as a piece of a major deal much more likely than normal, IMO.
Someone else has to offer up someone who would improve the club, and thats not a given. If no real improvement is possible I doubt KP will make a move just to make one... especially since he'll potentially have the same sort of ability to clear salary from other team's cap in inbalanced trades next offseason if he allows Raef and others to come off of his cap. STOMP
I think the Blazers are working on the best possible deal and the rumored 41 game insurance kicker to take place where it pays 80% of the last 41 games of Raef's contract. I know we may not think a $1M+ is nothing to these owners, but it is and Raef's insurance kicker is worth ~$5.08M to the next team that gets his salary (i.e. 41 game $6.36M salary - $5.08M ins. kicker). So that alone is a huge bargaining chip.
Teams can get pretty desperate at the deadline, i.e. Dallas giving up Devin Harris last season or Memphis giving up Pau for cap space. There's no telling what will come or who will be available a month or two from now. And like discovery pointed out, that insurance kicker is a pretty big chip for the rest of the season for the owners in this economy. I don't think KP will make a move just to make one either, but the trade deadline will be really interesting for this team. Even MB -- the king of homers -- believed we would make one by the trade deadline. But even so, I agree we're in a good spot either way whether we make a move in February or just wait til the summer. We hold the cards of what we can or want to do.
Good teams RARELY trade mid-season, unless they are desperate or making a championship run, and even then it usually upsets chemistry. Detlef Schrempf anyone? We're a good team. No deal.
