It's a bigger piece about free agency winners and losers (I won't spoil what the Blazers were listed as), but this the main Blazers-related piece: Link
You know what, I'd a whole lot rather be a second-tier contender than a rebuild team. I think it's a lot more likely that there would be another unhappy Chris Paul-type player that you could work a deal with using guys like Wes and/or Batum to upgrade to contending status than it is to dumpster dive into the lottery in hopes that you'll snag a future All-Star vs. a bust and then wait 3-4 years until he knows his backside from a hole in the ground. That said, we are where we are. Hello, dumpster.
Considering the Blazers will go into next summer with the most cap space of all the teams, this bit in the article is also of interest: Psst. Have you looked at next season’s free-agency class? Kevin Durant is the headliner, but it’s thin at the top after him. Among this season’s starry free agents, only Wade opted for a one-year deal that would plop him back into free agency for Year 1 of the cap extravaganza.3 Lillard and Anthony Davis, the two game-changers among next year’s potential restricted free agents, locked in deals a year early. There are still some big names, including Al Horford, Mike Conley, Joakim Noah, and perhaps Dwight Howard,4 but next summer’s class lost star power when Kevin Love, Aldridge, and others chose security over higher-risk, higher-reward short-term deals. There will be more star-level salary slots next summer under the $90 million cap than star free agents. That is very good news for Jeff Green, Luol Deng, Eric Gordon, Nic Batum, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, DeMar DeRozan, Chandler Parsons, and other third-banana types. These guys are going to get paid. DeRozan and Parsons hold player options for 2016-17, and the best intel is that both will opt out to secure longer-term deals based on the higher cap.
But will you spend your money to go to games? I won't and I've been a full STH or partial since 2006. I've been through rebuilds and watching a young and exciting team lose 20-25 home games a year Is not an enjoyable experience. I'd pay for a second tier team one player away. I'm not paying this season for the heartache of watching this. I'm sure that's seen as "not a true fan". Truth is, now that I'm older and have more disposable money, I choose to do things that make me happy. I lived through the .500 teams that made the playoffs in the early 80's. Those were more like third tier teams but the MC rocked and it was a good experience. Rebuilds are not enjoyable.
I read the title and thought the Blazers must be getting desperate if they just signed Zach Lowe to the roster.
My advice would be to give it a year and see if Neil can't do a near complete rebuild by next season. It's worth taking a one year hit to build a winner, no?
I will for sure, and truth is season ticket prices will drop in the next few seasons. The problem is, most of these guys are further away than one year. This feels like another 3 year rebuild and your fringe fans will lose interest again. It becomes disheartening to lose that positive energy the franchise can bring to the city. I'll obviously always be a fan, it's in my blood. But with all games being available via TV for me (sorry to those who can't see all them) I'm just not going to spend my money at The Moda.
Yes, a one-year hit to rebuild a winner is fine and always the idealized version of this. Then you have franchises like the Cavaliers after the Price/Daughtery teams, the Warriors in the '90s and '00s, the Clippers in the '90s and '00s who basically wandered in the desert for years and years when trying to rebuild. Yes, some of that is on bad management, but there are also some concrete problems: terrible, tanking teams are the opposite of destination franchises for free agents and finding franchise-changing superstars with lottery picks is really, really hard unless you pick #1 when a Tim Duncan or LeBron James is available, which is very rare.
I like to think the Blazers have a first rate GM and one of the very best owners in the league. I'm not sure you can say that about teams that have tanked and taken a long time to rebuild. The Lakers have rebuilt several times, as have the Celtics and Spurs. Memphis used to be Pau Gasol's team, now it's Marc Gasol's (rebuilt).
As I said, bad management is definitely partially to blame, which I don't consider a problem in Portland. But the other problems I highlighted are largely irrespective of how smart your front office. Certainly, one could argue that my second point about finding franchise superstars is related to how good your GM is, but I actually think that it isn't. Good front offices will nail more draft picks overall than bad ones, but I think finding the true superstars (outside of the obvious ones, like Duncan and James) is mostly luck. The Lakers have proven that they're always a top free agent choice, the Blazers will never have that kind of allure. The Celtics really have only managed one clearly successful rebuild, in my opinion (since we're arguing about whether it's better to tank or be a "second-tier contender," success can only be defined as a top-tier contender). And the Spurs have been rather freakish but even then instructive: outside of the original tank job that got them Duncan, they've never tanked to rebuild...they continue building the best teams they can and try (successfully) to find new players to add in. The Spurs of the past decade are pretty much the best argument for not tearing down but trying to consistently build from what you have.
Vonleh and Connaughton are the only guys on the roster that are further than one year away, IMO. CJ and Leonard were already being heralded as our prospective 6/7th men for this season, Henderson's a veteran (as is Kaman, of course), and Aminu, Davis, and Plumlee have already shown that they can contribute on their former teams.
The Celtics have rebuilt at least 3 times. Russell era, Cowens era, Bird era, Garnett era. I don't see why Boston would be more of a popular destination for FAs than Portland. In fact, I don't remember them signing any FAs. They acquired their big 3 for the last championship by draft, trade, and trade. After being pretty bad.
From the last time they made their playoff run in 2008 with Baron Davis, they had one down year to get Curry, one development year for Steph and the crew, and bounced right back. They weren't like Philly or Minny.
Over what timeframe are you talking about? Since the 1980s, they've only built one top-tier contender, the Garnett/Pierce/Allen/Rondo nucleus. And that is also interesting to look at: that came after a failed attempt to tank for Oden or Durant. They rebuilt with two big trades, around their holdover star, and nailed a late first round pick (Rondo was technically also a trade, but a draft day deal).
You may be right, and I hope you are. Im pretty old school, I don't look at analytics to view a players worth. I'll still use the outdated "eyeball test", and feel comfortable with it. I like Henderson, but he won't be here when this team starts making its playoff runs. Aminu to me is what he is at this point. While young still and obviously a good defender, he's destined to be a role player and not that second or third star a team needs. The same can be said for Ed Davis as well. Rookies are hit and miss, I hope we hit on the kid from Notre Dame. Here's the thing. Can you honestly look at Meyers and in your gut say he's a difference maker? Great shooter and improving, but he has zero feel for the game. You just don't learn that, it's not an acquired skill. You can teach a kid to shoot, but being in the correct spots at the correct time is just one of those inate things. I don't believe he'll ever have that. I like CJ. He's going to be a player in this league, and probably our best hope for a third reliable semi-star. Question becomes, where does that 2nd star come from, to help relieve pressure from Damian? This is the issue I'm concerned with.
You must have missed him in March and April last season. He's not just a shooter, but he's also get terrific touch around the hoop, great hands, and extremely athletic. I did a complete 180 on Meyers over the last year, and often catch myself defending him these days. The guy is a baller, and the mental aspects of the game are coming with more PT. You can clearly see the game slowing down for him. A lot of the same things I am excited about for Meyers apply to CJ as well. Both these guys will top 15 ppg next year in my estimation if the roster stays mostly intact. The problem next year, and for the near future will be on the defensive end. I don't think you should be as concerned with completely bottoming out as the article intimates. If our team is mostly healthy, I don't see us winning fewer than 35 games. For a year or two, I can probably digest that if we come out of it as contenders after.
Not having a 2nd star is completely different than everyone being 2-3 years away. Based on this post, you could be suggesting that signing Kanter and trading for Derozan would put us right back in the mix again. For the record, no, I don't see Leonard as an all-star-caliber player; I see him as a 2nd or 3rd big, either alongside a low-post threat or bringing quick scoring off the bench.
