Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml

CBS Poll: McCain, Obama Tied

McCain Closes Eight-Point Gap From Poll Taken Last Weekend


(CBS) <!-- sphereit start -->The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama's supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain's. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain's supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama's supporters.<hr>

 

Virtual tie.

Remember, they think there's 4:3 or 5:3 registered democrats to republicans so they multiply the result by that factor to nomalize their results. If they called 2000 people and the votes were 1000 obama, 1000 mccain, they'd use 4:3 x 1000 = 1333 obama to 1000 mccain in the poll results.

It's not a bad methodology, don't get me wrong. What may make it way out of whack is that both obama and mccain are appealing candidates to people of neither party or at getting crossover votes. The 4:3 thing may not be as accurate this time around. It makes a lot of sense when voters of both parties are so partisan that they'd only consider voting for the guy at the top of the party ticket.

 

Actually, Rasmussen may explain it better:

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.

 

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

Released: September 06, 2008 Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge
But the race is tight, as both campaigns consolidate support

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.​

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="375"> <tbody><tr> <td>

[SIZE=+1]Data from this poll is available here​

​

[SIZE=+1] [/SIZE]</td> </tr> </tbody></table> [/SIZE]​

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure. ​

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="223"> The Ticket Horserace
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 9-5/6
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 8-29/30
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">

McCain-Palin​

</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 49.7%
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 47.1%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">

Obama-Biden​

</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 45.9%
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 44.6%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">

Others/Not sure​

</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 4.4%
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 8.3%
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%. ​

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="223"> One-on-One Horserace
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 9-5/6
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">

McCain​

</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 48.8%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">

Obama​

</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 45.7%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">

Others/Not sure​

</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 5.5%
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support. ​

The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. ​

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."​

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.​

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.​

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him. ​

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.​

-Z-
​

Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.​

In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18^th was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.​

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:​

http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1332​

(9/6/2008)

 

Obama peaked in the Rasmussen polls at a 6% advantage.

The Barak Attack and Obamania features of the election are over. Neither candidate has sealed the deal to be looking like an outright winner. The campaign can't be won on McCain's negative ads or Obama's stagecrafted big crowds alone.

 

I have to agree with Real's last post. McCain is well known to have a great handle on the issues, while it remains to be seen if Obama can handle himself in a setting that isn't scripted for him.

McCain clearly did way better in the Saddleback setting, and Obama clearly looked like he didn't have any firm answers to any of the big questions.

 

Ralph Nader said McCain wiped the floor with Obama. He's not the only left-winger to say so.

The one on one debates are not what many may think they are. Democrats went into the last ones thinking "win it" in the sense you win a HS debate club debate, and did. Bush went in with a different agenda, actually won the debate (his polls went up after), and won the election. Aside from that aspect, you have to realize that both candidates know what the questions are going to be and that they're going to rehearse their answers for days ahead of time.

Saddleback had none of these qualities; the candidates had to think on their feet. McCain clearly did that better.

 

To jog your memory, this piece from a very liberal news source from Nancy Pelosi's home town:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/20/MN5M12E16U.DTL&type=politics

Bad news should wake up Obama, experts say

Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer
Thursday, August 21, 2008



(08-20) 17:32 PDT -- It's not panic time - yet - but some Democrats watching Barack Obama say his campaign should have gotten a wake-up call this week, not only from his appearance with John McCain at the Saddleback Church but from a major poll suggesting he no longer leads his GOP opponent.

At the Saddleback forum with Pastor Rick Warren on Saturday in Orange County, the Republican presidential candidate delivered on-the-money messages and answers so effective they were "scary to me," said George Lakoff, a renowned author and UC Berkeley linguistics professor who has studied how the human brain absorbs and processes messages.

Lakoff, whose work has helped shaped numerous Democratic candidates' campaigns, said that "right through the motivational campaign theme, they were doing everything right."

By contrast, Obama was "overconfident ... and certainly not prepared" before the evangelical audience with definitive answers to clearly explain to voters his world view, values and vision, Lakoff said.

Lakoff isn't alone in his assessment that Obama needs to step up his game, hone his message and sharpen his contrasts with McCain as he heads into the final sprint after next week's Democratic National Convention in Denver.
A national poll released Wednesday by Reuters/Zogby showed McCain beating Obama 46 to 41 percent, an advantage that also shows that voters now see McCain as stronger on economic issues. The latest poll erased the strong seven-point advantage held by the Democrat just last month. Other polls had the race statistically tied.

Moreover, some recent polls indicate that some red states that Democrats had hoped they could flip to blue - like Indiana and Virginia - are tacking back slightly to McCain.

The latest polls show that even with gas prices rising precipitously under a Republican administration, the candidates are unusually close on whom Americans trust to deal with the issue.

Sharper message needed

Some Democrats - Lakoff included - say it's clear Obama needs to sharpen his message and get tougher on beating back attacks from McCain's campaign, which has suggested that Obama is elitist and even unpatriotic.

"John McCain is jujitsuing Obama's strengths," said one leading California-based Democratic strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of his work with a nationally known party figure.

The strategist said many Democrats witnessed their candidate's performance at the Saddleback forum with "a feeling of vague nausea" because "the stature gap (between Obama and McCain) widened dramatically in the mind of any viewer who watched."

Lakoff, a progressive academic often cited for his views on the importance of "framing the debate" in politics, said the discussion at the Lake Forest evangelical church provided an unusually clear window into the two candidates' strengths, including how effective they are heading into upcoming debates and the final sprint of the presidential race.

Two examples from Saddleback that Lakoff and others said underscore Obama's troubles:

-- McCain - asked his reason for running for president - confidently outlined a strong message of "country first," urging service to America. That idea, dominant in McCain's message and the theme of the GOP convention, showed that McCain Republicans have "figured out the formula" of effective campaign communication - and brilliantly melded ideas touted by both Presidents Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy.

-- Obama, in contrast, delivered a far more nuanced plea for empathy and building bridges across party lines instead of a more direct answer - telling voters what those values would mean specifically "to your children, your future, your environment," said Lakoff.

With just days until the Democrats head into their convention, the tough assessment by Lakoff, author of "The Political Mind: Why You Can't Understand 21st-Century American Politics with an 18th-Century Brain," might spark some panic among Democrats.

Even some Republicans agree that the forum should be a dose of very tough medicine for Obama.

"The nature of the campaign is changing less than a week before the convention starts," said Sacramento-based GOP strategist Patrick Dorinson, who also saw the Saddleback forum as a seminal moment. "Obama felt he was sitting with Dr. Phil, and he was trying not to offend anybody. McCain seemed to understand he was running for president ... his answers were more direct and aimed at the electorate."

"The primaries are preseason; you can make mistakes. But now we're into the first game that really counts," Dorinson said. "Obama's folks are reading their own press clippings too much - and they've got to understand they're in a dogfight."

Time to revamp

Barbara O'Connor, professor of political communication at Sacramento State University, agrees with Lakoff that "Obama's message of change needs to be revamped."

"Change toward what end?" she asks. "The party is very bad at labeling things that provide an umbrella for other positive memories. Democrats tend to mush around and don't give people slogans like 'Morning in America,' " which Reagan used to evoke a feeling of hope and promise in the country.

But she takes issue with some of Lakoff's tougher assessments of Obama's performance at Saddleback, a forum before evangelical voters that from the start constituted a challenge for Obama.

"When you talk about religion and faith-based values, you have to be nuanced. ... I thought he was really earnest, trying to explain who he was to an audience that largely disagreed with him. These weren't his guys."

E-mail Carla Marinucci at cmarinucci@sfchronicle.com.

 

"Country First" is consistent with the bashing of republicans during the convention and having a democrat speak.

"Party First" is consistent with appeasing MoveOn.org so they'll be your ATM machine for the campaign.