We touched on this in the T/F thread. Seems like Beasley is a beast and my Bulls may well regret passing on him. I see the ROY race coming down to Oden and Beasley, barring some other draftee, Mayo or Rose perhaps, being a significant impact player right away. If Beasley is a high teens or 20 PPG scorer with 9+ rebounds per game, what is it going to take for Oden to win the award?
If Be-easy throws up 20 and 10 as a rookie then I don't think Oden can do anything that will get him the ROY; Greg's primary impact is going to be on the defensive end and his stats are probably going to be something like 12 points 10 boards and maybe 2 to 2.5 blocks per game. Voters seem to be enamored with the scoring stat and I think the Al Horford vs. Kevin Durant ROY debate demonstrates that. The only thing I can see holding Beasley back is his attitude and the fact that he seems to already have a problem making good decisions, old-school voters seem to take that into consideration.
Similar points and rebounds. Voters seem to respond most to PPG/RPG/APG. Playing a dynamic type of game that generates lots of highlights helps. But if they're similar in those statistics, Oden's name recognition and defense, especially if it leads to an impressive number of blocked shots, should give him the award.
Maybe if the Blazers go deep in the playoffs and Oden is a big part of it, he gets more brownie points? Miami is hugely challenged at the C spot and is banking on Chalmers at PG; I do see them improving, but not that much. Or it could be that Beasley plays well and the team wins 30 more games than last season, which would make him a slam dunk, IMO.
My guess is OJ Mayo. I think he is being somewhat underrated by people on his chances next season. For Oden to win it, Portland has to be amazing and he needs to average at least a double double a game with a few blocks a game. Maybe 17 ppg, 10 rpg and 2.8 bpg could do it
I like Mayo, but I think his college season wasn't brilliant enough to suggest that he'll have bigger seasons than Beasley, Oden or Rose. I think Mayo is closer to the Bayless/Fernandez tier.
Didn't Kobe say Mayo looked like a stud against the USA Team? Rose is going to take awhile to be good. I don't expect much from him next season.
A lot of people say Mayo sleepwalked his way through his required freshman year in college, not wanting to risk an injury before getting his NBA contract. He was super hyped in high school.
Yeah, but that sounds like excuse-making to me, really. I don't believe playing worse is something that limits injuries. "Sleep-walking" sounds like more of an invitation to make a mistake and end up vulnerable. An unimpressive college year cost him a lot of draft position, which means millions of dollars on his first contract. I think he played his best, but simply had a so-so year. Sebastian Telfair was also extremely hyped as a high schooler. Mayo is better, I believe, but not as good as his hype. And I'm far from a "hater" of Mayo...I had him as the third-best talent in the draft, after Beasley and Rose.
http://willhicks.wordpress.com/2008/07/30/kobe-bryant-is-a-fan-of-oj-mayo/ I remembered right, Kobe thinks the world of him
That's a misnomer. I got into a debate about that very subject a few months ago. Go look up Yao's numbers, he was outvoted by at least six other players in the NBA (including Dwight Howard). It wasn't like he had 1billion votes. It was more around the 200k mark.
Ok, so I went back and looked. My memory was bad about the numbers, but I was right about the standings. Yao only got 1,709,180 votes. Dwight Howard got 2,108,831. Out of the two starting fives, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, and Carmello Anthony all had more votes than Yao Ming. The only players who were behind Yao were Jason Kidd, Dwyane Wade, and Allen Iverson. Oden is really well liked around the country. People love the guy. I could totally see him getting voted in like Tim Duncan in his rookie season and Grant Hill in his first year. He has to play well, and the Blazers probably have to win, but I could see it happening.
I think the best chance Oden has to be ROY is for Portland to come out blazing hot and ride to a top 4 or 5 seed out west. The perceived improvement of the team from last year to this would be largely attributed to Oden's arrival, even if it was actually due to a combination of Roy/Aldridge improvement and the additions of Rudy/Bayless/Oden. But I said this before, PPG is the most important stat, even if you shoot 39% getting there. Beasley should handle a lot of the scoring load inside for MIA and that will give him a big advantage.
Yeah, but Wade is still the workhorse for that team. I don't think Beasley would come in and take over as the first option.
Greg will not have the HUGE #'s that Beasley possibly will have. If him being on the court has an effect on the game like I hope it does, maybe the voters will recognize that and award the BEST player, not the player with the BEST #'s.
I don't think Greg will win ROY. He'll have too much trouble getting back into game shape and staying out of foul trouble. I don't think Beasley will put up 20/10 or something similar, either. Those are All-Star numbers, and I don't think he'll be an All-Star right out of the gate.
