Yesterday I made a post about ground game, and Obama's in Missouri, and how it is just so much better than McCain's, and much more effective. http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/ne...3368120E9B53BDC1862574D0000D8EF4?OpenDocument Down only 1 point to McCain now in the new Research 2000 poll.
Obama's opened up a 5 point lead in the Rasmussen tracker! http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll This is pretty big imo, because Rasmussen always seemed to lean against Obama a bit. When other epople had the race at +4 Obama, it had the race at +1 McCain. Looking at the polls, McCain's favorability has crawled back into the positives, while Palin's is falling again (probably from that horrible interview with Couric). Obama is at +24 favorability, with only 8% with no opinion at this point. Obama seems to have consolidated the Democratic vote, based on polling, better than Kerry or Gore were able to do, and also seems to be bolstered by the black and latino communities. (Remember when there was all that talk about how they have to pick Hillary, because the latinos would turn to the Republicans because they don't want a black man running things?). I think this race thing is overblown at this point. Obama isn't going to win over many white conservatives. But the White Indies and Liberals, he is doing pretty well in those. I just don't see there being 5 points to take of Obama. If anything, I see there being basically no effect in the North, maybe a -1 effect on Obama in the rustbelt (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, etc.)...but a +3 Obama effect in the South (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, etc.). I think a lot of people are over race in this country, and the people who are still hung up on race are already Republicans, or Democrats in states like West Virginia or Arkansas, which aren't important towards the electoral map this election.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%. Tonight’s debate, if it takes place, could be very significant. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say the same about McCain. The remaining 20% are the target audience for the candidates during the debates and throughout the rest of the campaign. Data to be released later today shows that Obama is seen as having better debating skills and is more likely to help his campaign at the Mississippi forum (Premium Members can get an advance look at the results).
Rasmussen's new poll confirms SurveyUSA's findings that Obama has about a 5-6 point lead in Virginia. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub.../election_2008_virginia_presidential_election John McCain: Uh Oh, Spaghettios!
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" id="AutoNumber2" border="0" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="650"><tbody><tr><td colspan="9" width="650"> Zogby Poll VOTE PROJECTION: Nov. 1-2, 2004. N=955 likely voters nationwide. NOTE: Projection released at 5 PM EST, Nov. 2. 10/4-31/04 REUTERS/ZOGBY TRACKING POLL: 3-day rolling sample of approx. 1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE � 2.9. <GRAPHIC></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9" width="650"> General Election Trial Heat:</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> </td> <td align="center" valign="bottom" width="75"> Bush</td> <td align="center" valign="bottom" width="75"> Kerry</td> <td align="center" valign="bottom" width="75"> Nader</td> <td align="center" valign="bottom" width="75"> Badnarik</td> <td align="center" valign="bottom" width="75"> Peroutka</td> <td align="center" valign="bottom" width="76"> Cobb</td> <td align="center" valign="bottom" width="76"> Other (vol.)/ Unsure</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> </td> <td align="center" width="75"> %</td> <td align="center" width="75"> %</td> <td align="center" width="75"> %</td> <td align="center" width="75"> %</td> <td align="center" width="75"> %</td> <td align="center" width="76"> %</td> <td align="center" width="76"> %</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td colspan="3" bgcolor="#f7f7f7" width="259"> VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:</td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td bgcolor="#f7f7f7" width="109"> 11/1-2/04</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7" width="75"> 49.4</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7" width="75"> 49.1</td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="75"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> <td width="76"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> 10/29-31/04</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 48</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 47</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 1</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> 4</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> 10/28-30/04</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 48</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 48</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 1</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> 3</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> 10/27-29/04</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 46</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 47</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 2</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> 4</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="14"> </td> <td width="109"> 10/26-28/04</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 47</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 47</td> <td align="center" width="75"> 1</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="75"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> -</td> <td align="center" width="76"> 5</td></tr></tbody></table>
As I recall, in 2004, he departed from his own data to say that he thought that despite polling data, he felt Kerry was almost sure to win. Just as he's doing now in saying McCain might win a landslide, despite his own data contradicting it. Again, when he departs from his data, he's nothing more than a pundit. Not really more or less credible than any other.
10/27 - 10/29 he had Kerry ahead. A week before the election. Looks like he was very close to accurate in the end.
His numbers were good. His vocal prediction on who win the election based on experience and gut sense wasn't. He was very sure Kerry was going to win.
The election is Kerry's to lose. The election is Kerry's to lose. The election is Kerry's to lose. The election is Kerry's to lose. I don't find any fault in his prognosis. Kerry lost the election as much as Bush won it. Released: May 09, 2004 The Election Is Kerry’s To Lose By John Zogby I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven’t had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election. Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry’s performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn’t, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion: First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected – compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new. In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago. Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative. Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters – 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry’s lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush. The President’s problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 – yet voters gave the President’s father only 38% of the vote because it was all about “the economy, stupid.” The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation. Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry’s campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possible positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can’t spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean’s message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: “I’m a veteran”, “I have the experience”, and “I can win”. His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one of his former Vietnam War colleagues told a television correspondent in Iowa: “John always knows when his homework is due.” Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President’s side). We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry’s to lose. John Zogby’s column appears in the St. Louis and Washington Business Journals.
That's from May. He was saying that Kerry was pretty sure to win as late as the week leading up to the election. I don't think Kerry "lost the election" in the final few days.
I don't see what makes Zogby so special for predicting the election right. Most pollsters got it right, and if you looked at the collection of polls, it was quite obvious who had the highest probability of winning. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html Also, I think Zogby lost tons of credibility, when his poll said that Obama was going to win the California primary by 9 points. That was one of his regular polls and not an online poll. Ever since then, Zogby has been a joke along with American Research Group when discussing polls (although Nate Silver says that ARG has done good in past general elections, and just their primary polling might have been weird).
I can't find any statements by Zogby declaring or projecting a winner in the last week leading up to the election. At that point, his polls were extremely accurate and there was no clear winner. I still don't find fault in his analysis. It's backed up by citing historical polling data, and the conclusion was right on. If he (Kerry) does lose, "it will be because he blew it."
I saw him on some cable news shows in the final week saying that based on trends and how things tend to break, that Kerry was pretty sure to win, even though the polling data was close. I don't know whether he published this prediction or not that late. In any case, it's interesting that Zogby sees McCain as a possible landslide winner, but there's not much that leads me to believe his opinion is quite likely right. His work has been quite questioned, his own data contradicts his conclusion and his conclusion that I remember from the last election wasn't borne out. But hey, he's an outlier opinion. Toss it into the data cloud! Or should we dispense with it, since it's an outlier?
His data doesn't contradict his conclusions, and his polls are not outliers. The only thing I see that leads me to believe his claim is possible is the high % of undecideds. If he's looking back at many elections' worth of polling data to see how the undecideds went when they were this high at ~40 days out, then his hunch isn't just a gut feeling.
His data does contradict his conclusion. His own electoral map doesn't suggest a possible landslide victory for McCain. It woul require voting to break in a way that his polling data isn't currently predicting. And I didn't say his polls were outliers. I said his opinion (that McCain could win this in a landslide) is an outlier. Very few people feel that way.
"The big shift in the race appears to have come among independent voters, where McCain now leads by nine points, 43% to 34%." "But McCain led by 5 points in polling completed after his statement about the suspension of his campaign. Overall, the interactive survey, conducted Sept. 23-25, 2008, included 4,752 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points."
I think this theory is unsubstantiated, unless you mean to say that "some %" could mean no meaningful %. People who aren't going to vote for Obama because of race aren't going to tell pollsters they plan to vote for him. They're more likely to lie about why they aren't voting for him. Source?
