All those stats you quote as being down are only slightly down, and thus has little game impact. There is one stat you missed that is having a HUGE impact on the games (so far). Last season Roy averaged 3.8 made Free Throws per game. This season that number has been 5.8. Roy is taking it strong to the bucket more often (in part to compensate for some poor shooting performances) and the officials seem to show him more love than in the past (he is a "star" now). When he gets to the line he is knocking them down at a better clip. That is why his PER this season is 22.0, compared to 19.4 last season (when he was voted to the All-Star game). http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roybr01.html
I see no reason for this team to regress from where they are now. They have Webster coming back soon. They have Oden getting better. They have 4, count them, rookies to teach and assimilate into the team and doing rather well so far. They have ten of the toughest games behind them. They showed last year that they can learn and improve a lot. They have a great work ethic. They are hungry. I say they get the 50 wins I predicted at least, this year. I think they would disappoint me if they do not. g
What's our pace so far this season? I think I just read that the league is down 2 possessions a game on the whole, and Portland is at, like, -2.3 possessions a game. Those fewer possessions impact points and rebounds and assists, etc. Ed O.
▪ Pace Factor: 85.1 (30th of 30) Offensive Rating: 110.0 (3rd of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 111.8 (29th of 30) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html Pace = last. Yipee. You can see how slowing down the pace improves the team defense. Rating 3rd in offense after playing the teams we have is pretty damn impressive though. Last season 07-08: ▪ Pace Factor: 87.9 (29th of 30) Offensive Rating: 107.3 (14th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 108.4 (17th of 30)
Really interesting point. I hadn't noticed the increase in free throws, but you are definitely right. As Oden gets more minutes and gets the other team in the penalty earlier, I look for Roy's free throw numbers to only go up. Remember the Finals series where Wade got free throws because somebody sneezed on him? Remember how we used to hate Shaq because everything he did was a foul on both teams (and yet he never got whistled)? I think I'm going to finally be over all that. As long as the NBA cheats, it's nice to have it cheat in your favor.
The first half of the season wasnt the Blazers problem last year either. You guys better hope the rookies dont hit the wall.
I dunno about that. Wasn't Portland like 5-13 or something like that before they ran off the win streak? I'd call 5-13 a problem.
Well, it was and it wasn't. Last season our first half schedule was MUCH easier than our second half schedule. This year, the opposite is true. Last year, in spite of the easier schedule, the Blazers started the season 5 - 12. They then won 13 in a row, again thanks to a highly favorable schedule (10 of 13 at home, no long road trips). The reason they didn't do as well later in the season had nothing to do with hitting any wall. It was the result of a much tougher schedule with multiple long road trips. This team's biggest problem last season was winning on the road. So, far this season, they are doing much better on the road. Last season they didn't get their first road win until early December. They had three this year by mid-November. So, last season they started 5 - 12 with an easier schedule and this year they are 6 - 4 with a brutal schedule - and injuries to two starters. With the more favorable 2nd half schedule, I'm expecting them to finish out the season much stronger this year than last. BNM
I predicted 46-48 as well. However everyone but Martel is playing better or the same as i expected(Batum, Rudy, Segio all better) Oden in the last two games equals my expectation as does Travis, LA, Roy, Joel, and Blake. I still think we will struggle for the next few weeks though. Then come alive in Mid December
48 wins is a big step in the right direction and shouldnt be looked at as a disappointment. That is freakin 14 games over 500! I also think that should be good enough for at least 7th in the West.
