This kind of talk didn't start with the Blazers, this kind of shit has been inked since he was a freshmen in high school. The only thing I've seen KP or Nate say is that "He's a load," or "He does things on the court other guys can't." Certainly not the kind of "He's the next Bill Russell" rubbish that has been thrown around for 6+ years. I think it is fair to say that minus the knee injury last year, we'd probably be seeing a much different Greg ... he's just got some physical and mental obstacles to clear right now that's all.
He also only played 11 mins because of foul trouble, which he hasn't had near the problem I thought he would have. You have to keep it in perspective. Just like if he did score 30 and grabbed 15 rebounds but the team he did it against didn't have anyone over 6'. Of course he seems to have problems against smaller faster teams so maybe that would be pretty impressive.
That's the main thing about this discussion. Sure it's been 15 whole games, but look at what has happen since he last played ball. That seems to be discounted fairly easily.
I can remember Zach Randolph (and I think Amare said it too) saying it took him a whole season to get back to 100% after his MF surgery. I'm really curious what people expected from him this year. No rookie has ever gone through this before so there is no "standard" for how fast one should learn the NBA game. He was apologizing when they rolled him out of surgery. Then he spends almost the entire season not just missing practice but seperated from the rest of the team (he didn't go on most of the road trips). Now he's back, out of basketball shape, having to face guys that are way bigger and stronger than anyone else he's played and you really thought he'd dominate? We know he's not a slacker, rookies ARE inconsistent. They're not used to traveling like this, everything is faster, and they're playing about 4 times as many games in a season than they did in highschool and college. Me... I'm excited and encouraged by the improvement he's made in just 15 games. I don't think there is any chance he's going to be a bust because he's MORE than that already. So we may have drafted a player who's not the next Shaq but we've got two centers on team who are better than most other team's starting center. So, what did you "realistically" expect from Greg this year?
You make some good points. Maybe my own expectations were unrealistically high. The only college game I ever saw Oden play in was the NCAA finals, so I was going mainly on the hype surrounding him. Perhaps he never deserved all those accolades, and we've just got to set our sights a little lower.
These growing pain struggles were supposed to happen last year. Instead, they're happening this year, with the added obstacle of regaining explosiveness in his legs and working his way into the insanely demanding shape that NBA basketball requires. I don't know why this is confusing and provokes outbutsts of anger after every poor game Oden has. He's having a tremendous rookie season, so far, on a per-minute basis, and that's without his top explosiveness. Once he's in complete shape, he'll start playing more minutes. And once his explosiveness returns, he'll also look more dominant on the floor (as opposed to merely in the numbers). I've resigned myself to the irrevokable fact that the rest of this season will involve "Okay, NOW Oden is a bust, for real this time!" threads after every down-game. For myself, I'm quite encouraged by how he's looked despite the obstacles and while I don't think it's a certainty that he'll become a dominant center, I still consider it the more likely outcome.
Indeed. This year is really just a year to note that Greg needs to work on his footwork this summer, develop some post moves and learn how to condition himself better in the off-season. The first two can be worked on at a big man summer camp which I imagine the Blazers are already planning on having him attend one. The second is just learning how to pace yourself on your first real year in the NBA. I still have high expectations but realize that a big time surgery coupled without ever playing in the NBA before said injury AND taking an entire year off is a big hurdle to get over and will most definitely not be done in 15 games or probably even 30. So I'll wait next year and even the year after that until I'll re-evaluate where my expectations should be in regards to Greg Oden.
Exactly. There is a huge middle ground between "flop" and the outlandish expectations some folks have for Oden.
It's fair to note that what you call "outlandish expectations" (assuming you're connecting that with Shooter's pondering that maybe Oden "never deserved those accolades in the first place") are essentially the opinions of the entire scouting community that has opined on the matter. Oden has been called one of the best center prospects ever, and the best center prospect since Shaq, continuously since his sophomore year in high school. Not that you or others can't choose to disagree, but it isn't like these are a product of some homerish wish-casting by a fanbase. His hype and expectations have been building constantly, fueled entirely by his performance and scouts' assessment of that performance. The scouting community could all be wrong on this one, but at least it's coming from an experienced and credible source.
I'll just throw in this. Effort can be brought on every occasion. That is my main worry with Oden at this point. I understand he is coming off of major surgery, but some nights it seems he isn't even trying. I'd start Joel again at this point.
It hit me while watching the Utah game. I now know why Greg Oden is playing so poorly. It's not any of the microfracture surgery baloney. It's not that "out of shape" stuff either, he should be in shape by now. You know what it is? He NEVER gets mad. Shaq dunks all over him, makes him look bad. He doesn't get mad, he gets depressed. Howard takes it to him. He doesn't get mad, he gets depressed. Garnett trash talks the whole team. He doesn't get mad, he gets depressed. The refs at Utah screw over the whole team, him included. He doesn't get mad, he gets depressed. Jesus H. Christ man, get MAD, get EVEN.
Your second paragraph is where we part company. During their "one-and-done" season in college, several observers raised the same issue: Oden made unbelievable plays, while Durant had unbelievable games. Durant played with more emotion and consistent effort. Oden's rep *wasn't* fueled by his actual performance...it was fueled by excuses. "If he is this good with a bum wrist, just you wait!" Wait till he is healthy, wait till he gets his timing back, wait till he gets his confidence back, etc. Sorry if I sound frustrated...but at this point, I'm not even sure how much the kid cares!
If he was playing like this last year I might be a little concern, maybe, but no way would I be hitting the panic button, but considering he has had surgery and been off over a year I'm not to concern. As to the effort I think it's there. I remember when he just threw some players off him, what happen? He got a foul. He goes for a dunk with a lot of emotion and a lot of times misses the dunk or gets called for hanging on the basket. He needs to stay in control or he's going to be on the bench with fouls. He knows that and is trying to find his rhythm.
You're talking about fans. Scouts continued to rave about him, based on his college performance. Oden's freshman season wasn't any different from those of Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing, etc. Very few big men come in and dominate college from their freshman seasons. He was still showing all the same things in college that caused scouts to call him such an amazing prospect: incredible athleticism combined with great size, skills developing extremely well for his age, elite defensive instincts, intelligence. Honestly, only people who weren't aware of how big men perform as freshmen, historically, thought Oden's freshman season was a warning sign. His performance was very much in line with what elite big men do in their first year in college. Leading up to the draft, the scouting consensus still was that Oden was a special prospect. I realize you're frustrated. I'm not. I had hoped he'd be closer to his peak shape earlier, but these things lead me to believe that this is just an inconsistent rookie campaign from a player recovering from a year away from basketball: -His rebounding has been exceptional (best in the league in Rebound Rate) -His defense has been exceptional (the team's scoring defense zoomed up in rank when he returned) -Opposing teams double-team him in the post constantly (so opposing coaches can't believe he's an offensive duffer) These points don't point to bust, or even disappointment, to me. They are entirely consistent with what Oden is supposed to be: a top center prospect who's early in his rookie season, not in basketball shape and still regaining explosiveness. I understand that people are going to look at his bottom-line raw stats and at the plays on court where he looks clueless or unenergetic and react mostly to those. That's fine...I'm not excoriating anyone for that perspective, even though I think it's lacking in perspective, personally. My response to you was motivated by the proposition you and Shooter seemed to be putting forth that Oden was really never considered anything special except by delusional fans and we should all bring "our" expectations back to Oden being a largely proven mediocre prospect. I don't think that reflects the reality of what scouts with no vested interest believe.
Effort can be brought on every occasion...if you're in shape. Clearly he's not in shape yet. Watching the game last night, it was obvious. He was running hard, working at getting position early in both halves. About 5 minutes into each half, he starts to slow down. He's just really, really tired and it looks like he's being lazy...which I guess may be technically true. He'll work himself into shape.
After a good night's rest, I agree with your post. I too think that Oden isn't conditioned enough at this point. I suppose the lack of effort that I perhaps see is more noticeable to me because of the outgoing young man that we were all introduced to last year.
