Basketball Prospectus on Roy's budding superstardom

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Minstrel, Dec 19, 2008.

  1. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    In addition to all the other things mentioned - I wonder what the knee injury (and surgery) in the off-season has done to him - he looks a lot more explosive this year. Maybe he was not 100% before athletically?
     
  2. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Or worse.... Adam Morrison and Sheldon Williams.
     
  3. Sedatedfork

    Sedatedfork Rip City Rhapsody

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    I am pretty sure I remember during that draft that Colin Cowherd claimed that Brandon Roy, Sheldon Williams, Adam Morrison, and JJ Reddick were can't-miss prospects. I guess a .250 Batting Average isn't horrible....
     
  4. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    I wonder who Pritchard would have taken had Chicago wanted Aldridge with their original pick. Would KP have taken Roy with this first pick?

    It's fascinating to think how the dominoes fell to allow Portland to take, basically, the two best players in the draft. (Gay is not impressing me this season...he hasn't improved, he's regressed a bit.)
     
  5. crowTrobot

    crowTrobot die comcast

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    or second pick even if charlotte took Gay and Ammo was still on the board. ironic if MJ ended up playing a roll in portland winning a championship : )
     
  6. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    of course, you could say the same about aldridge so far.
     
  7. LittleAlex

    LittleAlex Well-Known Member

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    Seems to me the problem there was he scored "only" in the thirties.
     
  8. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    He needs to score more than 38 a game for us to succeed, clearly.

    Ed O.
     
  9. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    At least two of 3. I am not sure LMA is better than Rondo.
     
  10. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    I can, and have (that he's regressed). However, he plays better defense than Gay and I think his role has been more unsettled. Though that's fairly debatable.
     
  11. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Rondo's doing well, but playing with three HoFers sometimes makes things easier. Rondo's perimeter game is atrocious but he fits in well with what the Celtics need from him.

    Ed O.
     
  12. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    Atrocious? This might have been true in their rookie year - but Rondo has a higher TS%, FG% and eFG% than LMA - and he is a freaking guard.

    If there is one area where Rondo is definitely not good - it's his 3P shooting percentage - but other than that he is a lot better than atrocious.

    Yes, Rondo benefits from playing next to the big 3 (it should be argued however that he is more important to Boston's success this year than Ray Ray) - but he is still a fantastic player. If you look at their respective games - Rondo is higher in PER and win-share this year than LaMarcus, despite being used less (his usage%) than LMA.

    There is a reason Rondo will likely make the all-star team this year - and that's because he is a fine fine player - there are only 4 point guards in the entire league who are clearly better than him this year (5 if you include Terry, I guess) - and these are CP3, Harris, Billups and Parker. I assume that when D-Will returns to form he will be better than him as well - but the kid is far from being atrocious in any way, shape or form.
     
  13. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Gay and Aldridge are both down, stat wise, by similar amounts this season, but Aldridge is still ahead of Gay in both EFF and PER.

    Aldridge:
    2007-08 - PER = 18.5 EFF = 18.46
    2008-09 - PER = 17.9 EFF = 16.85

    Gay:
    2007-08 - PER = 17.5 EFF = 18.42
    2008-09 - PER = 16.9 EFF = 16.12

    Gay scores more, but Aldridge remains a slightly more productive, slightly more efficient player. Disregarding positional need, I think if the 2006 draft redone today, most GMs would take the big man (Aldridge) over the higher scoring, but less efficient wing (Gay). Their performance is similar enough that the deciding factor would be their size/position and that tips the balance in Aldridge's favor.

    I also think both players' slightly decreased performance this year can be attributed to changing roles and adjusting to new teammates.

    BNM
     
  14. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Yes, atrocious. Not only does he shoot a horrific percentage from threes, he also almost never shoots them. He's really, really bad as a perimeter shooter.

    http://www.82games.com/0809/08BOS1.HTM

    He has a 24.7 eFG% on jumpshots. Compare that to Sergio's 44.1 and Aldridge's 40.7. And Telfair's 34.6. It's horrific.

    I think you're kidding yourself if you think he's anything better than an atrocious perimeter shooter. By your logic Shaq could never POSSIBLY have been a terrible free throw shooter because he was so great in other areas.

    And I think it'd be hard to argue that if he played for, say, Charlotte or the Clippers that he'd make the all-star game this year.

    Ed O.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2008
  15. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    i'd say that the players are close and that the blazers definitely got at least two of the top three players out of the draft. the top player obviously being roy and the next two being aldridge and gay.

    who is better between aldridge and gay is debatable, i just didn't think it was a good argument saying that gay has regressed as if that would suggest aldridge is better when in this case the stats would indicate that both players have taken a bit of a step back this year.
     
  16. rocketeer

    rocketeer Active Member

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    just in case you were wondering, 82games.com classifies anything outside of 7 feet in the "jump shot" category. so outside of 7 feet, rondo's efg% is just under 25%. that is pretty pathetic.
     
  17. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Agreed, and that was my point. Aldridge and Gay are close enough in stats/talent/production that I think most GMs would take the bigger player - not becuase he's head and shoulders better, but simpley because when two players are otherwise equal, you take the big. Talented 6'11" guys are harder to find than talented 6'9" guys.

    Still, I bet the Raptors, Bulls, Bobcats, Hawks, and Timberwolves would all be thrilled to death to have either Aldridge or Gay compared with the players they ended up with that day.

    BNM
     
  18. Entity

    Entity some guy

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    New Quick article on Roy

    The new Brandon Roy? Is this going to be permanent?
     
  19. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    The team leader and All-Star is asking Shavlik Randolph, the 15th man on the roster, to assess his game.

    The city of Portland has a very special player on their hands. Wow.
     
  20. Darkwebs

    Darkwebs Awakened to emptiness Staff Member Moderator

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    Hmm...interesting. But why didn't Brandon ask somebody who was playing in the game?
     

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