You are wondering about his psyche, yet you think that leaving him in to foul out in 14 minutes is going to boost his confidence? I will say this about Oden. He is a much bigger project than I imagined when he was drafted. I'm sure a lot of it has to do with his surgery, but with the flashes of potential we've seen from him, it puzzles me that he would check out of a game last night going against Kwame Brown.
Dude, you are comparing the #1 pick in the draft to a guy who was considered a marginal 1st rounder. I would hope that expectations for Oden are a bit higher than "well, he really isn't much worse than Outlaw!"
A telling thing, as I've mentioned before, is that opposing teams double Oden in the post more often than not. In fact, almost all the time. You don't double-team a player you feel is no real threat, because that leaves the rest of the offense better opportunities. You double team only when you feel you must. That opposing coaches feel Oden is a threat, even at this stage of his career, means a lot more than what we think and say about him. Portland has one of the most efficient offenses in the league. It's based largely on jump shooting. Oden, by virtue of the attention he draws, has been a big component in the team getting so many good open looks that they're such an efficient jump shooting team. So, forgetting PER and any other stats that you may be suspicious of, there's an on-court proof that Oden is already an effective player, as voted on by opposing head coaches.
Oden has been in plenty of "crunch times." But if Przybilla has played more at the ends of games, then sure...I'm sure that's largely a vote that Oden is more likely to commit/be called for a foul. If you think my argument is that Oden is a perfect player, you're misunderstanding me a lot. Oden makes plenty of mistakes and his fouling is his biggest problem right now. I was simply pointing out that there is more evidence than his per-minute efficiency that he is an effective and important presence on the floor.
I don't see you saying Oden is perfect. I get your argument about other coaches and thought it was cleaver to say that relects their "vote" . . . but the thought that came to my mind is that other if coaches may see Oden as a big offensive threat (I respectfully disagee), our coaches don't. So whoose vote count more? Anyways, I don't think coaches plan defenses around Oden are are overly concerned about his offense. Any double teaming (I don't see it happening every time, but haven't focused on it) I think is a result of the way the team is playing low post players and the tendency of players to help out on a big guy (the Rose garden crowd buzzes when Oden gets it down low). But who knows, maybe coaches talk about the need to double Oden during pre-game meetings . ..
But that seems illogical. First, he has played in crunch time. Second, playing a bit less in crunch time doesn't necessarily have anything to do with offense. It seems much more likely to do with not wanting a foul at a bad time. Teams don't compromise their defense just because the crowd "buzzes." If the crowd buzzed because Shavlik Randolph got the ball, the defense wouldn't double team him. Bad offensive big men don't draw double teams in the post. Double teaming incurs a significant cost...you only have three defenders for the other four guys. Which has led to lots of open shots. The result is that Portland has one of the most efficient offenses in the league (in the top three according to Hollinger, Basketball-Reference's Offensive Rating and Basketball Prospectus' team offense rankings). It's hurting opposing defenses to give up open shots, and yet they keep double-teaming Oden. All due to crowd buzz? Doubtful, IMO. I think it's much more likely that they don't think a single defender can keep Oden away from the basket, but Oden hasn't yet figured out how to score against two defenders.
No, i'm comparing a rookie who hasn't played in a year's consistancy to that of a 6 year player. I'm not talking about who is better, i'm talking about a certain person defending an inconsistant 6 yr player and giving up on a rookie after his first 30 games played (with all the shit he has gone through the past 18 months).
Well you seem pretty convinced that coaches are changing their defensive schemes around Oden . . . I don't think they are and if they are, then they are making a mistake. As for our coaches, if they thought Oden was this big offensive threat, they would get him the ball down low more often. I understand you and many others feel the Blazers should do that, but we are talking coaches "votes" here, and nate has said he wants defense and rebounds from Oden this year and his offense schemes support that. If you think my argument is they are only double teaming Oden because of crowd buzz, you're misunderstanding me a lot. edit: so I'm trying to find video of GO getting the ball down low, because my drug infested recollection is Oden gts double teamed occassionally but not all the time. I know some of those funky hook shots he does is against single coverage and there have been multiple traveling violation where it was single coverage . . . so i don't think GO is an automatic double team by opposing coaches. The one video I found are highlights from the Boston game, and the GO highlights show the celtics are not double teaming him. http://www.youtube.com/frederlk
No kidding. With KingSpeed, the glass is never half anything. It's either bone dry or over flowing. I somtimes wonder if he's not some sort of genetic hybrid of MIXUM and Mike Barrett. BNM
I actually see them double teaming Oden. That's observable fact, IMO. What they are thinking is simply guesswork, but I think it's reasonable to believe that they wouldn't double team a player randomly. They do. Which either leads to Oden passing it for a good shot attempt by another player or Oden turning it over or looking a bit awkward. In the second case, you get a bunch of people on the game thread saying Oden looks totally lost and is basically a bust. I must be misunderstanding you a lot then. You said this: Any double teaming (I don't see it happening every time, but haven't focused on it) I think is a result of the way the team is playing low post players and the tendency of players to help out on a big guy (the Rose garden crowd buzzes when Oden gets it down low). It sounds to me like you were using Rose Garden "buzz" as some sort of evidence/cause for defenders automatically double teaming a player they don't see as an offensive threat.
Then you are misreading. I gave a couple reason why I think they double team Oden and you mischaracterized it as I was saying I think they are double teaming Oden all due to crowd buzz. All due to crowd buzz? Doubtful, IMO Did you see the link I put up of the Boston highlights. Two times they had Oden scoring without Boston double teaming. Not every coach feels compelled to run at Oden with a double team when he touches the ball. That is an observable fact . . .
I think the point was that Minstrel said coaches have voted that Oden is an offensive threat because they always double team him and I was pointing out that coaches don't always double team Oden. But to answer your question, Oden was 5-9 with 13 points, 3 asts and 3 TOs in 35 mins. GO
I didn't say "always," actually. I said more often than not. Boston is an outlier in a number of ways, considering they have a great defense and a reigning DPOY big man. And despite that, singling him up allowed Oden to score at a high percentage. Seems to be a data point in favour of what I said: coaches double team because not doing so means Oden is hard to keep away from the hoop. Boston chose not to double him constantly and Oden scored well.
Well to be acurate, you said: "A telling thing, as I've mentioned before, is that opposing teams double Oden in the post more often than not. In fact, almost all the time." I don't see Oden being doubled almost all the time, but I also don't look for it each game so maybe that is an acurate statement. (The one game I found Oden scoring he wasn't doubled teamed, but apparently Boston is the exception.) But I get your point, that you think other teams treat Oden as an offensive force that needs to be doubled teamed. If that is true, we can both agree that is a good thing for the team as it opens up other players.
Yeah, that's my perception. But I wanted to avoid saying "all the time," because I know that's not true. I haven't watched all the games. But I've watched quite a few and I tend to focus on Oden when he's in, because...well, his development is the most important thing, in terms of future title contention, IMO! My perception may be wrong...human perception is a tricky thing. I just have been surprised by how much defensive attention he draws.
Only someone who is nit picking and without an argument says something against using the term "All the time". It is pretty common for "All the time" to equate to "Most of the time" and usually context will clear up misconceptions. Too bad some go to that level of granularity. If someone can't understand it, oh well. Oden gets double-teamed "all the time". Feel free to refute, sorta pointless though.
