i was just pointing out that he's not locked up long-term. and in any case no matter how likely you think it is that he would stay it can't be guaranteed and there is some risk of things not working out, or of him wanting to play with lebron or whatever. there's also a sizeable risk that LMA will be just as valuable as bosh at 1/2 the price over the next 5+ years. i would assume any risk at all wouldn't be worth it to the blazers.
Why would "any risk at all" be a deal-breaker? There's also a risk to Aldridge...he's not currently as good as Bosh, so there's the risk that he never will be. There are arguments to be made for the risk on each side, but I don't see that "any risk at all" makes acquiring Bosh not worth it. That would only be true if Aldridge's value was certain to be at least equal Bosh's.
because it's not obvious that bosh would be an upgrade from aldridge at all, much less a big enough upgrade to be worth the extra cap-crippling salary.
i meant long-term, although they're not that far apart right now. bosh is a better more aggressive rebounder currently, but offensively there's not that much separating them, and neither is exactly an all-NBA defender.
The Blazers are going to be well over the cap anyway, once they begin re-signing their players. I definitely think the upgrade of Bosh would be well-worth being more over the cap. Championship contention would go up quite a bit with a surefire star/near-superstar talent in Bosh. Aldridge could get there in the future, but he's far from Bosh now. Bosh has about a 5 PER advantage on him, which is quite massive. And they're near the same age.
i'm talking about now, not after we re-sign everybody. even if bosh ends up being better aldridge + upgrading PG or SF may end up being worth a lot to the blazers than giving up any flexibility to switch aldridge for bosh. not recently he's not. 4.33 for the season, and over the last month or so the difference is a lot less than that. and as i said from what i've seen bosh would not be an upgrade defensively, which PER doesn't reflect. i didn't say that was relevant, but bosh is 17 months older.
I don't think Bosh would be a big enough of an upgrade over Aldridge to even do the deal. Maybe this year, sure. But in the years to follow? I'm not so sure. McMillan loves Aldridge's versatility on the defensive end so I don't think he'll be going anywhere anyways. I also talk to a couple of Raptors fans on another board and they sort of just rag on the dude like we do on Sergio or something. He doesn't seem to be very well liked right now in Toronto, but I'm not 100% sure of that.
People always go through stages of not liking their own players when they do something wrong. I tend to remember quite a few of us getting pissed at Roy a couple games ago for not passing the ball at the end of the game when he had sucked that whole game (and other players were hot) I wouldn't read too much into Toronto fans dissing Bosh now and again.
This assumes that the team will be able to use the cap space to sign an impact player. I doubt that. There aren't many impact players available this off-season. The only one who could fill the SF role is Kobe Bryant, who isn't moving. There are no impact free agent point guards. I think upgrading from Aldridge to Bosh is a better use of the cap space than any opportunity the team is likely to have. A month isn't a significant sample size. Shrink the sample size enough and no player is better than any other. For the season, Bosh is much better. This is true for last season, too. PER doesn't account for defense, but I don't think Aldridge brings a significant upgrade on defense. If they're in the same realm defensively, it doesn't matter that PER doesn't measure it.
i'd guess the blazer brass would disagree with you, particularly if you factor in the risk of bosh not wanting to be here long-term even if it's small. i was just pointing out that aldridge has improved a lot recently. also tmost of he difference in PER between them is due to rebounding rate and bosh getting more touches and and a lot more FT attempts, both of which are things that might be reduced if he were in aldridge's position with the blazers. it does reduce the significance of the difference in PER though, since defense is half the equation of a player's value. also i think aldridge will probably be the better defender long term as his confidence builds, definitely the better shot blocker.
And I'd guess that they'd disagree with you, since the top three players make proportionally far greater contributions to winning than the rest of the team, especially in the playoffs. Upgrading your second-best (or third-best, if/when Oden develops into a force) is a very big deal. A month's performance is not enough to say that it's improvement. It could as easily be variance. Perhaps, but unlikely. Aldridge plays nearer the perimeter because that's his game, not because it is optimal, IMO. Bosh's ability to play near the hoop and draw fouls (and get more rebounds) would be extremely valuable to the team. When Oden becomes an offensive force, Bosh has the skills to play high post to complement Oden. If Oden never does pan out, Bosh makes a nice insurance policy as a big man who can be dominant on the boards and in the paint. Only if one of them actually holds an advantage on defense. If they're roughly equal, then that "side" of the game cancels out and PER encapsulates (though not necessarily perfectly) the difference between them. I don't think Aldridge possesses a material edge on Bosh defensively, and certainly nowhere near enough to wipe out Bosh's big production edge.
I'm not so sure if being a "Me First" guy is so bad in your best player. If that's Amar'e's biggest problem I'm cool with that. But it could be that he's an insufferable malcontent. That, I'm not cool with. But right now he seems like an awesome player with a bad rap. If we could get him for Aldridge and change I'd do it in a second. But the Suns wouldn't do that, so it doesn't matter what I think of Amar'e.
upgrading your 2nd-best player significantly long-term without the risk of losing both would be a big deal. neither of those things would be a given with that trade. if you're looking long-term aldridge's slump earlier this year was the variance. you're misrepresenting the extent of the difference between their games. bosh is the primary rebounder on his team and is more active on the defensive boards than aldridge, but he's average at best in offensive rebounding, doesn't "dominate" the paint, and much of his game is from the perimeter like aldridge's, just not quite as much. they are actually a lot more similar than they are different. the main difference is bosh is more advanced in experience and confidence.
My argument is not that a dealing for Bosh is a "given" win. Just that there being risk on the side doing the deal doesn't automatically make it a loss, because there is risk to not doing the deal. I'm certainly open to arguments that Portland shouldn't deal Aldridge+ for Bosh, even though I'd lean toward doing it. Assuming this were even a possibility. I'm not advocating evaluating Aldridge only by his early-season slump. I'm advocating looking at his entire sample. His sample for this season places him solidly behind Bosh. This season is also not a significant improvement on last season (and there's only been a minor improvement since his rookie season). I'd like to be more optimistic about Aldridge, but his development so far has been worryingly flat. I agree that they're quite similar, but Bosh is definitely a more active rebounder and he attacks the hoop more, which is why he generates more free throws. Those are two extremely valuable things. Aldridge seems to have the physical ability to do both things, but he hasn't done either one consistently. Those two things are the main difference between them, IMO.
sure. all i'm arguing is that blazer brass would see the risk on the negative side as greater and wouldn't do the deal. take out the slump and he has improved enough where i'm not worried. over the last month or so i see an improvement in his confidence that goes beyond stats and isn't likely to be variance. bosh attacks the hoop more but he also gets a lot more post up opportunities to do so as the main man in their offense. as far as rebounding the difference is entirely on the defensive boards which suggest that bosh's stats, again, benefit at least to some extent from being the main guy on his team. offensive rebounding between them is almost identical.
