Kenny Smith says "Blazers will be odd team left out"

whenever someone says that the blazers are going to be the team left out of the playoffs because they are too young, i stop listening. there are legitimate reasons to feel that the blazers have a chance at missing the playoffs but them being young isn't one of them.

 

I think you're right, but I think that the "legitimate reasons" are somewhat related to their youth. For instance, the team is not as aggressive and intense on defense as they should be. But I think that's related to their inexperience, and doubts among certain players, about where they're supposed to be in different situations. Likewise, I think the Blazers' youth on offense contributes to making hasty decisions or being indecisive on offense, and thereby not making the most of their opportunities.

If the Blazers miss the playoffs, it will be indirectly because they're too young. It'll show up on the court in terms of teams exploiting their tentative defense, and their indecisive offensive schemes.

 

Of course the prediction doesn't include injuries. Injuries, by their very random nature are unpredictable.

Here's the description of the way the play-off odds predictor works, in Hollinger's own words:

"The idea is to predict what a team's odds are of making the playoffs, winning the division, making the Finals, etc., by simulating all the remaining games in the NBA season. We have a computer at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn., that automatically plays out the rest of the season every night -- not once, but 5,000 times. And we can see from those 5,000 trials how many times a certain outcome resulted, then assign a probability from it. For example, if the Blazers make the playoffs in 2,500 of our trials, we say their odds of making the playoffs are 2,500 divided by 5,000, or 50 percent.

This tool doesn't just play out the regular season, though -- it plays out the postseason with seedings and even runs the draft lottery. As a result, we can get an idea of the probability of all sorts of outcomes; the most prominent is the team's median record from the 5,000 trials. As a reminder, this tool is completely, 100 percent automated, so my obvious, long-standing bias against your favorite team is not a factor here.

As always, the output of a product is only as good as its input, so let's explain a little about how this is derived. The computer starts with the day's Hollinger power rankings. Then, in each of the 5,000 times it replays the season, it makes a random adjustment up or down to allow for the possibility that a team will play better or worse than it has done thus far. (I call this the Anti-Dennis Green Postulate; i.e., maybe they aren't who we thought they were.)"

Of course, no system is perfect, but I'll take Hollinger's structured approach over Kenny Smith's random hunches. After all, Kenny Smith's hunches also don't account for injuries. Obviously, if Dallas loses Dirk or Phoenix loses Nash, it greatly impacts their odds of making the play-offs, but neither Hollinger's system, nor Kenny Smith's opinion take into account events neither is capable of predicting accurately.

BNM

 

i know, but i was just commenting that i don't think it is accurate to pass off hollinger's playoff odds as hollinger's opinion of what is going to happen.

and when talking about injuries, i was referring to injuries that already occurred this season. it doesn't take into account that deron williams missed time early which obviously would effect the play of the jazz(and roy missing some games for the blazers, etc).

 

Damn you prescriptive grammarians

 

You mean Damn you people with out a life.

 

damn you people without a life.

 

I know there's still a lot of games to be played, and the Blazers haven't exactly been tearing up the league lately, but the 3 teams immediately behind us in the standings, Phoenix, Dallas and Utah all have a worse record than the Blazers over the last 10 games. The Blazers are 6 - 4 over the last 10 games. Phoenix is 5 - 5, Dallas is 4 - 6 and Utah is 5 - 5. So, even though the Blazers aren't currently playing their best ball, the teams we are fighting against to make the play-offs aren't gaining on us. They are actually losing ground.

BNM

 

Kenny Smith has his opinion. Mine differs. I'm cool with that.

 

What has Kenny Smith ever predicted? He seems like a nice enough guy and he did play in the league for a while, but I sure don't think of him as the brains on that TNT crew let alone Bball Nostradamus. I don't know how many times I've heard him start in on a metaphor and then just drop it (or start another) midway through a ramble. I'd be every bit as concerned if Kenny picked Portland to make the playoffs.

STOMP

 

Good point. Don't know how that apostrophe slipped in there.

 

It's very simple. It's Mixum. If 99.9% of sports reporters say the Blazers are a playoff team, only the 0.1% who say otherwise are worth quoting. Mixum has gone from critic to the shadow world of deniers.

It's why I also ignore. I occasionally look at replies. But I can predict every post:

The Blazers suck. Everyone in sports who says they are on the right track is stupid. Every critic is spot on. Their loss proves they are terrible. Their win was useless. Every players is useless. KP, Nate and Paul Allen suck. They must make a trade yesterday. Every trade they make is terrible. The players they drafted suck. The players they did not draft are great. The players for whom they do not trade are great. The free agents they sign suck. The free agents they don't sign are great. The Blazers will not make the playoffs. If the Blazers do make the playoffs they won't advance. If they advance they won't win a championship. If they win a championship they did not sweep. If they sweep the games were too close. If the games were blowouts the team was disgraced because the opponent's dance team was prettier. The world is flat. Everyone who says the world is round is stupid because Mixum knows the world is flat.

Have I left anything out?

 

That pretty much sums it up. You left out the bit where Jesus only walked on water when he could have flown, and turned water into wine, when whiskey would have packed more punch.

 

Well, around this time last year during our 13-game win streak, I remember Kenny Smith predicting we would make the playoffs and we didn't. Now that he predicts we won't, I fully expect us to make it.

 

That's because I'm Jewish. But I could have mentioned that dumb Moses only brought back Ten Commandments when he could easily have asked G-d for 20. The Commandments really suck, just think of all the good commandments Moses could have brought, but no, he had to bring this stupid list!

 

All I know is it will be fun to watch. We could be 7-8 games up on the last spot and still not make it if we start playing like crap. Only thing we can do is play 100% all the time.

 

Yea well that is what happens when you eat rotten rhye bread, hallucinate that you talked to a burning bush, and then write down what the bush said to you on stone tablets. It ususally doesn't turn out too well, although it probably seemed really cool at the time. But what doesn't when your high.

 

You've got your Bible history mixed up. The burning bush did not give Moses the 10 Commandments. Moses was not "high" either, though I think a few people who have tried to rewrite the Bible were definitely on some kind of drug.