Is it time to be looking at HCA? (Merged)

Re: Is it time to be looking at HCA?

how bout this? if we beat dallas and either thunder or knicks....then 100% yes we can.

 

Re: Is it time to be looking at HCA?

Understand that, but two things are different. We're a year older and the schedule is not as difficult as last year.

We've made the Playoffs. It's just a matter of HCA or not.

 

Re: Is it time to be looking at HCA?

we've made the playoffs????

not even close until we star beating playoff teams like dallas, houston, etc

 

serioulsy let's back away from the crack pipe and settle down a little bit. i understand we've had very little to be excited about in the last 6 years but there's still a lot of season left and alot that can still happen.

 

Bottom Line: Were a much different and better team than last year. Last night showed we have some serious composure.

No doubt in my mind we will make the playoff's.

 

so who doesnt get in????

i just dont think we are better then the suns, jazz, or mavs. we will be but not right now. As of now it looks like either the suns or jazz wont get in if you wanna say we are a lock.

suns? depends on what they do. do they tarde or maybe they just fall apart at some point. shaq will be out at some point...it always happens.

jazz? depends on how long boozer and AK are out. They will make a furious push come mid march and april.


i think its us or the suns...and with all the vets + amare its hard to see them getting left out.

 

Well not sure if you knew this MIXUM, but the team with the best record makes the playoff's. It doesn't matter if were "better" or "worse" than the teams you mentioned. The truth is we will have a better record than one or more of those teams.

 

thats very true....but i just feel like we aren't as good as our record shows. those teams clearly have more talent. at some point all those teams will go on massive runs and 1 bad stretch for us could finish it.

only way we make teh playoffs is beat the teams we are suppose too.....like the thunder who owned us last year when they were seattle. players like durant and green always kill us.

 

I keep hearing about how the other playoff contenders have not been healthy.

How about the Blazers:
Starting SF out virtually all season, and counting.
Starting SG out four games.
Starting C out six games.
Starting PG out eight games and counting.

So, what? It's a bad win when we win over a team that has the injury bug? It's a bad loss when we loose with our guys hurt?

I don't get it.

 

I will gladly admit i was wrong if we get in!

 

We will gladly accept your admission!

 

Our expectations have no bearing on what ends up happening. I don't base my expectation on "not overreaching" or "making sure we lock up one thing before we look at something else." We're irrelevant on-lookers. I base my expectations on what I think is the most logical outlook. Based on these factors (that I mentioned in another post):

-They're right on the cusp of a top-3/4 seed in terms of record
-They've played better than their record by point differential
-They don't have any players over-performing (hopefully Roy isn't) and have a number of players one would expect to play better going forward (Oden, Bayless, Rudy, Batum...maybe Aldridge)
-The schedule the rest of the way is easier than what they've already played

...I think that the team is extremely likely to reach the playoffs and has a strong shot at being a 3/4 seed (with an outside shot at the 2 seed). I may be overlooking something or overrating one or all of those factors, but based on them, I think my expectations are in line with reality.

 

I don't care about HCA. I just want to get in!

 

As fans we get to ponder stuff like this... but the team just has to focus on winning every game. Personally I'm hoping we make the playoffs. Home court advantage would be icing on the cake.

Nate has done an amazing job with this team by being the anti-Mixim. Instead of focusing on who has the best roster... who should win... who the home team is... who is more experienced, who the refs are... what could happen... they focus on playing hard every minute of the game.

 

I still maintain that I would be happy just making the playoffs at this point. Yes, you strive for HCA, but I think getting to the postseason would be an accomplishment for this team.

Getting there is the goal, winning there is the dream.

 

Portland's now 30-17. We're more than half way through the year and we're ahead of the Rockets, Suns, Jazz, Hornets and Mavs.

Now I don't think we'll catch the Spurs, but if we can win the division, which I think we can, we will automatically become the 3rd seed, regardless of whether the Spurs or Hornets have a better record.

We're just 1 game behind the Nuggets. The way I see it. This is a race against one team - Denver.

The remaining schedules for both teams are below. Of the 35 remaining games, we have 18 home games and 17 road games. Of the 18 home games, we play New York, Oklahoma City (twice), Memphis (twice), the Clippers, Indiana, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Philadelphia. That's 10 of the 18 home games that are locks in my opinion. The other 8 games are against Utah, Atlanta, San Antonio, the Lakers (twice), Dallas, Phoenix, and Denver. Dallas will have just played in Phoenix the night before, so I think we'll take that game as well. Phoenix will have just played Utah at home, so I think we'll get that win too. I think it's fair to say that we'll at least win 4 of those other remaining home games against these top tier teams. None of our home games are back-to-backs.

Now, of the 17 road games we'll probably go 1-1 on the remaining 3-game trip against Dallas and Oklahoma City. Although we head to Golden State having just played the night before, the game before is against OKC. I think we'll be fine. The next 3-game trip is another toughie - play against Houston, the next night against the Spurs, and then Minnesota. I see us going 1-2. We head to Denver after having played Indiana the night before. We'll likely lose that. Next up we have a 5-game trip. We'll likely lose to Atlanta and Cleveland, but we'll likely take Memphis, Indiana, and Milwaukee - going 3-2. Our next 4-game trip I only seeing us losing the Spurs, and winning against OKC, Houston, and Memphis - so 3-1. Our last road game is against, the Clipps. We should win that.

So our road record looks like it would be 10-7. That's consistent with how we've played other road trips.

If this all happens we'll have a 53-29 record. That definitely guarantees a playoff spot in my opinion.

But is it enough to win the division?

Denver has a record of 31-16. Of their 35 remaining games, they have 16 home games and 19 road games. Edge to Portland right off the bat. Of the 16 home games, they play Oklahoma City (twice), Clippers (twice), New Jersey, Washington, Golden State, New York, and Sacramento. That's 10 of the 16 home games that are locks in my opinion for them. The other 6 games are against San Antonio, the Lakers, Boston, Atlanta, Portland, Houston, and Utah. I see them losing to the Spurs, Lakers, Boston (they'll have just played the night before), and Houston (they'll have played the night before).

Now, of the 19 road games they have a monster 8-game road trip! I see them though going 5-3, losing against New Jersey (they'll have just played the night before), Orlando (they'll have just played the night before), and Philadelphia. They have a two-game trip, where I see them losing to Detroit and going 1-1. They then have another 2-game trip, where they'll likely lose against the Jazz and go again 1-1. They visit Memphis which is a win. They have a 3-game trip against Phoenix, Dallas, and New Orleans. I see a doughnut for this one. They head to Minnesota and get a victory. The crazy thing is they head to the Lakers, where they'll likely get a loss and the last game of the year will be against Portland in Portland.

If this all happens they'll also have a 52-30 record. We better hope they don't tie us though. In that case, in the head-to-head series, they'll likely tie with us. We've already beat them on our court and they've beat us on their's. So then it goes to either division or conference record. That's where I think we might be screwed.

We just have to flat out win more games than them to guarantee the 3rd spot. Otherwise, I see us getting the 4th seed.

Either way, we make the Playoffs. Guaranteed.

 

Yeah....... what he said!

 

We need a few more streaks like the one we're currently on.

 

FWIW, Hollinger's playoff odds lists Portland second in the west with a 99.3% probability of making the playoffs, 54.1% chance of winning the division, and 16.5% chance of getting to the finals - better than any other team except the Lakers.