Kevin Pelton (basketballprospectus.com) cooked a little something up for Ben Golliver over at Blazersedge.com, basically creating a regression analysis of defensive efficiency as a function of the age of players on a team's roster. http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/3/2/773198/kevin-pelton-blows-minds-a The bottom line? Basically the young Blazers aren't as awful at defense as we thought (when adjusted for age). Yes, the correlation coefficient and R-squared values aren't exactly slam dunks (.4 and .18 respectively); other factors besides age are certainly as important in determining defensive prowess, but it really does underscore the effect that experience has on a team's defensive abilities.
Whoa. That guys seems to have put more work into that than I did on my final project for Stats. The correlation of .434 and an r^2 value of .19 is kinda weak, though. But it certainly shows a trend that supports Nate in his quest for acquiring vets.
If there was some way to turn categorical data like "coaching skill" and "defensive mindedness" into ratio data I'd really like to see some kind of multiple regression done, then you can tease out any multicollinearity, and run an ANOVA analysis to see if there is a large enough F ratio at a certain significance level to justify the regression model, or at least reject the null hypothesis that there is no association between age (and other factors) and defensive prowess. That'd be a helluva lot of work and you'd have to be careful how you quantified 'fuzzy' concepts like individual skill, ability and coaching ability. Maybe if I get really bored, I'll plug those figures into SPSS and see what I can come up with.
Not necessarily, it largely depends on sample size ... and we know that there are other factors at play besides just a simple regression between one dependent and one independent variable.
After reading TrueHoop this morning (but before clicking through to the mentioned article) I thought of doing the exact same stuff. But I don't know the real statistical expertise nor the patience to do so. Which is unfortunate for me. I need to get me some Adderall.
Yep. It is pretty clear that there is a sample-size issue here. Not necessarily with the absolute number of samples, but with the distribution of the samples.
Interesting to look at. Two reasons off the top of my head why his numbers under-represent our team's defense: 1. In calculating average team age, I assume he includes LaFrentz. Although I don't want to get in an argument with Ed on this, even he would concede that once his contract expires (if nothing else happens) our average age goes down, and the age weighting is a greater advantage to the team. 2. Oden has missed 22% of the season to date. He's one of our better defenders, and would likely be our second best by now if he were able to stay healthy.
Very interesting concepts here. I really wish more reporters and analysts would put out material like this that is meant for the ardent fan . I don't have much time at the moment to discuss, other than say I appreciate novel attempts like this at understanding the game from a new perspective.
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Fitted lines make me happy, even if the correlation is embarassingly low. I did, however, notice an omission in the Blazers graph, which I fixed below:
Nope, no lafrentz, it only accounts for minutes played by rotation players. As for Oden being one of our better defenders I'd reject that assumption too based on the fact that he fouls at an enormously high rate (leading to foul shots) and he isn't nearly as good at Joel at this point of his career ... if anything I'd expect Greg's presence to depress defensive efficiency not increase it.
Wow. You really think we're a better defensive team with Aldridge or Frye playing center than with Oden in there? Man, we see the game pretty differently.
I didn't say that ... and no I don't think frye is a better post defender, but LaMarcus at center at the end of games is pretty effective both on offense and with his perimeter defensive skills and 'decent' post defense. My main point is that at this stage in their careers Greg is not as good defensively as Joel, mostly in recognition, rotations, weak-side help, pick and roll defense, etc. not in terms of raw physical tools which Greg possesses far more of.
Someone should do this same study based on prior minutes of in-game experience as opposed to age. Just curious.
If we made a trade for Wallace, we'd already have moved in the direction of your arrow. Don't bake it, we're already Fryed.
More hypothetical trade griping... Silly. Nobody wanted G-Wallace more than I did, but I'm waaaaay over it. As soon as you're ready to pull yourself out of fantasy land, you might notice a pretty good team right here in reality. And it's only going to get better.
