Hollinger - Denver Claims Northwest Division

Unless Dallas wins at home against the Nuggets and we beat them at home. We have a one game lead over them. If this doesn't happen then I believe (with Hollinger) of Denver winning the division.

 

People don't like my analysis? (30 people have read this topic so far)

 

Denver will drop 1 or 2 unexpectedly like they did @ Sac a week ago. They are on the verge of blowing up.

 

I agree with Hollinger's analysis...Denver should be the odd's-on favourite for the division. But Portland still has a non-trivial chance.

 

Regardless of who wins it this year, I think we have several coming in the next five to ten years.

 

in other news....water is wet. yea, at this point with their schedule they should take the NW division. and what about their game right now says they are "on the verge of a blowup"? we could still win the division but it's out of our hands, need some help from the bottom feeders.

 

It's not out of our hands at all. We can put tremendous pressure on them by continuing our high level of play. I live in Denver part of the year and unfortunately have to watch these punks more than I'd like. They've been playing like crap for the past few weeks and have had some very lucky wins (e.g., Memphis). Their chemistry is fragile and explosive. Force them to face adversity and they'll turn on each other. NO without Chander and Peja is a non-playoff team. Dallas will be hungry and the Nugs will miss Nene.

If we win the games we're supposed to, and win a few we wouldn't have earlier in the year, we'll be the favorites for the NWD Crown.

 

This is nothing I didn't say two weeks ago. Denver by far and away had the easiest remaining schedule.

 

Go dallas!!!!!!!!!

 

I don't think it's an unreasonable position. Of course I hope he's wrong.

What I find interesting is his playoff odds have Denver more likely to win the division, but Portland (and Utah) more likely to make the finals/championship. I wonder what weighting he has that suggests Denver won't do well in the playoffs despite a better regular season. It would be interesting to hear the reason.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

 

Yep, Denver has the easiest remaining schedule of the teams fighting for the 2nd - 8th seeds in the West, but that doesn't mean they will automatically win the division. Even if they hold serve and win the 6 gimmes, they could still go 6 - 4. If the Blazers go 7 - 3, it would come down to the secondardy tie breaker (winning percentage within division), which the Nuggets currently hold, but could change if they lose to Utah and Portland and the Blazers beat Utah and Denver.

If the Nuggs slip up and go 5 - 5, they Blazers could catch and pass them. Or, if the Blazers play out of their minds (like last night) and go 8 - 2, they'd likely finish ahead of Denver.

So, there are still plenty of scenarios where the Blazers could win the division. They need to keep playing every game like they did last night. If so, it could come down to the final game of the season - which is in Portland. If we get to that point, I'll take my chances on the Blazers.

BNM

 

Point differential, generally considered to be a better measure of "true ability" than just record.

 

We are tied in 5th place in the West with 10 games remaining. I never would have dreamed of this... and we are only 1 game back with 3 weeks to go in the season. All we have to do is play good bball and we will be fine.

All we have to do is be with 1/2 a game by the final game of the regular season (when we play denver IN PORTLAND)...

 

Does Denver have the tiebreaker on us? If we're within 1 game, and beat Denver, we'd be tied, and it'd be up to stats...

 

I would so love to have that last game of the season here at home decide the NW Division. THAT would be such a great game to prepare us for the playoffs. Dallas needs to take care of business tonight.

 

It goes to conference records. If Portland wins the final meeting, the teams will tie in head-to-head, so the tie-breaker goes to whichever team has the best record in Western Conference games. Denver has the edge there.

 

I think it goes to division records first before conference records. If it were us and say New Orleans tied, then it would go to conference records.
Regardless, Denver owns the tiebreaker with division records.

 

Just what I thought. Denver swept Dallas 4-0. There goes our chances for lock #4. We will either be the 6th or 7th seed at this point. Thats what I'm speculating.