Championship Odds

Other than the obvious top four teams (Cavs, Celtics, Magic and Lakers), John Hollinger has the Blazers with the best odds of making the finals (13.9%) and winning the NBA title (4.6%).

BNM

 

Which makes sense, because he also has the Blazers 5th in his current power rankings.

BNM

 

We are next in line, after the elite bunch, in terms of point differential. That probably comes into play as much as anything, at this point.

 

Interesting. Last week I remember noticing that those numbers favored Jazz > Blazers > Denver, despite the actual records being the opposite. I guess Portland's blowout wins lately have vaulted them ahead of the Jazz.

 

Yup, Hollinger's various formulae weights point differential as one of the most important determinants of success ... which I think makes a lot of sense; being able to consistently monkey stomp other teams (even the bad ones) usually means you are a cut above the rest.

 

Hitting that 14% chance of reaching the Finals would be amazing. I mean, this is the worst Blazers team of at least the next five years...if they reach the Finals this year, that would be scary.

 

I wonder what they will put it at after the Blazers go 10 and 0 to finish the season...

 

That'd be 11-0.

-Pop

 

Or so we all hope.

Gramps...

 

Wow. To be THE dark horse candidate in his system is shocking.

Of course, he goes by the "numbers". If you poll NBA observers and experts, they will discount the team for its lack of experience - and rightly so.

Really though, barring injuries (always, always), this sure looks like this is the year LeBron breaks through. The Cavs are straight thumpin'. Just seems like this is the Cavs year.

And if they stumble, the returning finalists from last season are both much stronger teams than the Blazers. Wouldn't some other teams have a better shot at upsetting the Lakers, Celtics and Cavs?

 

I'd have thought the Spurs would have the best shot at upsetting the Lakers and then one of the Cavs or Celtics, but now I'm not sure...the Spurs don't seem like they're rolling in juggernaut form.

I think the Blazers could be a dark horse if they got really hot, basically. They play a very efficient offense, and if they became super efficient for a month and a half, with everyone playing near their best levels, they could shock. Not a high likelihood, but not impossible.

 

We hit that #1 pick with worse odds, so strangers things have happened!

 

FWIW, the updated odds now have the Blazers with a 17.3% chance of making the Finals and a 6.3% chance of winning it all.

-Pop