After Nate's comments in the Freeman article about us needing to improve our 3pt shooting to be championship caliber, I did some comparative analysis. Basically, I compared the season stats (achieved and allowed) of the last 10 title teams to try to find similarities; I then compared the results with the Blazers' '08-'09 numbers. The first thing I noticed is that our 3 point percentage is almost identical to the last two champions, so while it would be nice to improve it, it is by no means a necessity for a championship. So what do we need? The stats that were consistent across all 10 teams were: All had higer FG%, more FTA, more rebounds and more assists than their opponents. Also, with the exception of last year's Celtics, all had more blocks and fewer fouls. There were no other stats in which a positive or negative differential was consistent more than 7 of the 10 teams (Aside from the obvious points and FGM). As far as these categories are concerned, our Blazers are comparable in all, but near the bottom of the spectrum in blocks, fouls and assists. Where we really fall short, however, is FG% differential, which ties to all of these. The .462 FG% we currently allow is nearly 20 points higher than the highest allowed by a title team in the past decade. If we want to win a title, THIS is what we need to improve more than anything else.
Defense and playoff experience is the only thing holding us back. Currently we are the 13th best defensive team out of the 16 current playoff teams (Detroit, Dallas and Chicago fall in line behind us). Other than that, this team has all the tools to contend for rings for years to come.
I agree that defense is the thing most likely to hold us back, and I don't think our odds of winning a championship are that great this season, but it is definitely possible. I think the matchups could be a big factor. If we get Dallas in the first round, we could be in for a tough time. If we get Jazz-Spurs-Lakers-Magic, why isn't it possible?
I appreciate your honesty when discussing the L*kers, but the subject "we" in this thread is the Blazers.
I think we're good enough to compete with any team in this league. This team is reminding me more and more of the 76-77 team. That team came together and figured things out during the season. They got better and grew up as the season went on. They weren't taken seriously and were thought too young to compete. Their main obstacle was a certain team covered in piss & purple. The teams favored to emerge from the East are considered to have unstoppable superstars. I like our odds.
Yup, until we have a top 10 or maybe even a top 5 defense this team still has some work to do before you can seriously consider them anything other than a very very good team.
The article is absolutely right, if we increase our 3pt% to 65%, we have a great shot at winning a championship THIS YEAR. That could basically be a way to say that we'd have to get extremely hot in order to go all the way, but we have enough guns that it could happen. Our 3pt% is not the problem for our team right now though. We still need to improve defense, FT%, and create more fast break points.
If Portland plays defense like they did against San Antonio and the Lakers, they're a title threat. They just haven't done that consistently.
No, but wonders never cease. Any team widely ranked as 5th best in the league has to be considered a dark horse candidate to get to the Finals. iWatas
Why not? Once you get in the playoffs anything can happen. I feel the team needs to go into the post season with the title on their minds. They may not have the best chance but that doesn't really matter.
No. But, we are a lot closer than I thought to start this season. Roy is now a budding SuperStar. Aldridge is expanding his game and has made another leap. The team chemistry is great. Our offense is very good. Though, I think our No. 1 rating in the stats is not something that will carry over in the playoffs. Our rebounding is excellent. Our Center tandem is much above average. Our 3pt shooting is very good. The coaching is solid. Good play calling out of timeouts for example. Batum is a great surprise. If you were to design the perfect Small Forward for this Blazer team (short of the obvious "give me an all-star") it would be Batum's (unpolished) game. Defense. BBall IQ. 3 Ball. Run the floor, etc. As the OP noted, Defense is the great void for this team. You don't have the have the very best defense in the NBA to win a title. But it has to be above average. We are not there yet. We may need to bring in a vet defender if we want to contend soon. Otherwise it could be a little while before the best defenders on our roster gain experience and the respect of the refs. Bayless and Oden can't breathe without racking up fouls. Batum does a better job, but I could imagine foul troubles for him in the playoffs. It just takes time for defenders to establish themselves in the NBA. Just remind yourselves what Yao, Artest and Battier got away with against us. And the leeway that Joel mostly gets from the refs. It takes time. Another issue is our bench. We have a very good bench. It is a great luxury and valuable during the regular season. In the playoffs, our depth won't be as useful an advantage for us unless we have an injury. Thus, in terms of being a title contender, we would be better off trading some of the depth for an upgrade to the short rotation.
Yup, I agree. Why not it be us? Of course, we can simply lose in the first round but this team has shown they can beat anyone on any given night. Let the fun and championship window open now.
Hollinger has us as 20.8% chance to make it to the finals, 9.7% chance to win it all. I'm happy to have those odds this year. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds I agree that matchups will play an important role.
Good post. I'd reinforce that a lot of our solutions on the defensive end are going to be solved internally. Batum only gets 18 mpg, which has got to be one of the smallest starting minutes in the league. As he continues to raise his game, I see him beating out Outlaw and being a 30-35 mpg player, maybe as soon as next year. In fact, if there's one "surprise" I'm going to predict right now, it's that Batum blossoms into a 30 mpg player during the playoffs this year. Roy has lost a step this year defensively. Nobody has noticed it, because the team is doing better and because he's putting up great stats. How can you complain? But I think as he's put more of the offensive burden on himself, he's lapsed on the defensive end. Hopefully, as our offense runs less through Roy and more through Oden/Aldridge, he'll focus on the defensive end more. Also, with his newfound "superstar" status, he can gamble more on defense because the refs won't call the fouls as much. Mostly, though, I'm banking on the passage of time. Young teams notoriously suck at defense. There's not much you can do but wait. When you think about how young this team is, it's almost absurd that a thread with this title is getting taken seriously. It's exciting that it is, though. Portland is a mediocre (at best) defensive team, but in a few years it should be one of the very best. Some time between now and then, it'll be a contender.
20.8% chance is actually a pretty remarkable percentage for one team. If you assumed there were 5 teams all equally capable, each team would get 20%. The Blazers are almost as entrenched in second place by Hollinger's numbers as the Lakers are in first place.
