If our rebuilding mode started in 2007, we would still have an amazing nucleus of players. This means no Roy, no Aldridge, no Travis, no Pryz, no Webster. But we would still have Oden, Rudy, Bayless, and Batum from our previous two years of drafting. If you want my opinion, that's better than OKC (Durant, Green, and Westbrook) and Memphis (Gay, Mayo, Gasol and Conley) because of how spread out our talent is. We'd still be a young and up-and-coming team that's on the radar. Sure, we probably would NOT be in the playoff hunt today but our future would still be bright and something to talk about. Just saying. Those 4 players without Roy/Aldridge/etc. would still be capable of winning a championship 4-5 years down the road.
This so depends on Oden becoming a D-Howard offensive force - which he might never be - and assuming Batum, Bayless, Rudy and the gang are much much better than the Orlando support crew of Nelson/Turk/Shard. Honestly - I am not sold on Orlando being a real championship contender this year - so this Blazers team without Roy/Aldridge is very questionable as a championship contender team, to me. You are selling Roy/Aldridge short. Very short, IMHO. Roy is already a super-star level player. These are very rare in this league - and Aldridge might be our best overall player (offense + defense) when all is said and done.
I said capable, as in being a contender, not a for sure thing. By that time, Boston, LA, Dallas, and SA will all have fallen off and we'd be hitting our prime. Rudy will have gotten used to the NBA schedule, Batum would have a developed offensive game, and the MF surgery Oden went through will just not be spoken of anymore and IMO be pretty similar to Dwight in stats. Bayless' potential is up in the air though.
If Oden, Bayless, Rudy and Batum develop to their reasonably hoped-for upsides, I agree. It would be equivalent to having a Parker/Ginobili/Prince/D Howard core. But the chances of all of them getting to that level aren't that good. The key, of course, is Oden.
Woah, lay off the kool-aid guy, Memphis and OKC are pretty solid young teams with a no real bench. I wouldn't take someone like Bayless or Rudy over any of the guys from the other teams you named off except maybe Marc Gasol but even he has more value. Only guys I would take Oden and Batum over on the list is Westbrook, Gasol, & Conley.
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You're not giving Rudy enough credit. This guys a beast on the 2nd ranked Spain team, and was probably the best international player aside from Yao at the time. He's the best prospect from overseas in a while and while the comparisons to Ginobli are very overplayed and cliched these days, theres no doubt in my mind Rudy can become a great second or even first option for other NBA teams in this league. He's already averaging over double digits off the bench, has developed a great 3 point shot and is a very underrated passer. Internationals that play well in their first NBA seasons is unheard of and hes doing a damn fine job. And do not brush off Bayless as nothing when he hasn't been given a chance to do anything, ala Conley his first year. Oh and Oden (if he even reaches half his ceiling) > Gay, OJ, and Durant. After him, Dwight, and Bynum, good luck finding a decent game changing center. Thabeet will be lucky to reach Ratliff status.
You rather have Jeff Green over Greg Oden? May I ask why.....on second thought don't answer, save yourself the embarrassment.
It would definitely be a possibility. I'd certainly take that core over anything the Blazers had between about 2003 to 2005.
I never understood the Rudy to Ginobli comparison. Rudy is a terrific role player. He can stretch the defense with his shooting, and he runs the floor pretty well. He's also a decent defender (when he's not matched up with a super physical guy) I don't ever see him being a 1st option, maybe not even a 2nd. He can't create his own shot. He needs somebody to set him up - he's not a guy you can "Iso". Ginobli on the other hand is much more versatile with the ball. You are right about the International guys. The pattern is that they seem to play okay in their NBA rookie season, and then bust out in season #2 (sometimes #3) Dirk, Ginobli, Yao, Parker, Turkoglu, Peja, Bargnani, Diaw, Nocioni, and others all showed marked improvement after a year or two in the league. Rudy would have to add something to his arsenal to be a 15-18 ppg type if scorer. It's hard for me to imagine being able to use him on pick'n'roll or isolation plays right now. Unless he adds something, there's only so many open 3 pointers and back door alley oops you're going to get every night.
He needs to add some bulk. He doesn't need to be Brandon Roy-big, but right now he makes Kevin Martin look like a body builder. If he added some muscle he'd probably be much more aggressive in taking it into traffic without worrying about another serious injury. Until he builds some strength, he will always be limited to the role you describe. Which is ok--it's a role we need filled on this team. But even in that role, I don't feel really safe. Watching Livingston gimp around last night demonstrates how precarious it can be to play this game if you don't have the strength for it.
Right now, it's not even close with Jeff Green and OJ Mayo vs Oden. Jeff Green is a 6'9" SF that does EVERYTHING from the SF spot and is versatile enough to slide down to the 4. When it's all said and done, he could end up being the 2nd best player out of the draft after Durant. As much of a douche OJ Mayo is, he still plays hard and wants to win. As a rookie he's nearly averaging 19 points a game, and is on the verge of becoming a 25+ PPG guy that can take over games. Rudy Gay is the only one that Oden is close with at this point IMO. They're both pretty good players that do their thing, but I gave the edge to Rudy Gay who has proven he can stay healthy throughout college & the NBA unlike Oden. After seeing the first generation youngsters that came into the NBA early like T-Mac & KG prematurely being worn down, it has to make you believe that someone like Oden that has shown some injuries issues early on might have them return earlier in his career.
I am sorry. The 13.9 PER, under-sized PF Jeff Green could end up being the 2nd best player out the draft? The guy who in 20 more games this year has a lower win-share than still not fully recovered Rookie Greg Oden with a 18.1 PER - and this does not even include the defensive presence where Greg Oden is a game changer and Jeff Green is Aldridge's bitch... Please. Jeff Green is a nice serviceable SF who is forced to play undersized PF in OKC. LaMarcus Aldridge as a rookie had a higher PER than Green has this year. Al Horford (who is and will continue to be a much better player than Green) had a higher PER than Green as a rookie (and he is much higher this year). I am sorry - I did not bother reading the rest of the argument from there on. Jeff Green is a nice player - but right now, with Oden playing at 30% of what we expect of him - is not as good a player as Oden is...
You seem to be focused primarily on scoring. Mayo is averaging 18.4 PPG, which is nice for a rookie, but his PER is only 14.1 - below average NBA player. If Jeff Green "does it all" why is his PER only 13.4? Nicolas Batum, as a 19/20 year old rookie has a 13.0 PER in spite of averaging over 11 PPG less than Green. That's the definition of a do it all player - a guy who fills up a stat sheet in ways other than scoring - and Batum is also a great defender. Forget Oden over Green, if the draft was today, I'd take Batum over Green. He's 3 years younger, plays better defense, and has a lot more "upside". WRT Oden, you are focusing too much on scoring. Oden's scoring will come, but he already provides GREAT rebounding and tough interior defense. Defense and rebounding win championships - and that's why GMs favor bigs over wing players that have the potential to average 20 - 25 PPG. Oden, as a rookie coming off microfracture knee surgery currently has a TRB% (total rebound percentage) of 20.2%. That puts him among the league leaders as a rookie recovering from a major injury. By comparison, a healthy Dwight Howard ha a TRB% of 17.3% as a rookie and has a career TRB% of 20.5%. And, of course, Oden has barely scratched the surface of what he will become. Never before has a rookie entered the league after sitting out a year to recover from microfracture knee surgery. Even experienced players like Amare and Zach Randolph took almost two years to retrurn to their pre-surgery production level and those guys had the benefit of multiple years of NBA experience to fall back on. Oden is JUST starting to get back some of the athleticism he lost - and he still lhas a PER of 18.1 and a TRB% of 20.2%. Even if he never averages over 15 PPG, he will have a bigger impact on his team's won-loss record that Durant and Mayo. Remember, Bill Russel wasn't a great scorer, but he has 10 rings. Again, defense and rebounding win NBA titles, which are MUCH more important than individual scoring titles. Durant may win several of the latter, but my money is on Oden to win more of the former. BNM
