You are contradicting yourself here - you said that if he averages 15PPG you will be surprised - I am not sure if you are talking about a season or a career - but Russel averaged 15PPG for his career and had 6 seasons when he averaged more than that - he also averaged 42MPG. Personally I would be shocked if he will not have multiple seasons where he averages more than 15 - I actually see at least one season with 20PPG and multiple seasons with 18PPG - and he would do that without playing 42MPG. There is a difference between expecting him to be a dominant scorer in the Shaq mold and expecting him to be a good scorer in the D-Howard mold. Greg was drafted because he can anchor your defense and provide more than enough scoring as a secondary or 3rd scorer on the team - but that does not mean that 15PPG is the ceiling for him - which is what your post seems to indicate. Maybe this entire argument is there because you did not give us a more concrete understanding of your expectations for him as a scorer. Do you think he will average 15PPG for his career? If so - what do you expect his best season average to be? Do you think he will top as a 15PPG for a season? If so - what do you expect his career scoring average to be?
I normally don't get mad at anything a sports writer says, but Bill Simmons really needs to shut the fuck up!
Exactly. Oden is already a better passer out of the double-team and a better defender (even with all the fouls). He doesn't have Z-Bo's offensive game, but when you can pass the ball to ROY or LMA or Webster or Blake, all legit midrange to outside threats? His willingness to pass out of a double-team will result in a lot of open shots for us. Hell, if he gets good enough at that trick, he may average more assists than points.
There's also the part where this "very talented low-post scorer" "a guy who was great at drawing fouls and cashing in at the line" has a career FG% 10% lower than that of our injured/inept/rookie/whatever you want to call him center. Zbo is/was a volume shooter, and I don't see anyone saying that's what we should turn Greg into. Getting him 10-12 FGA per game (in 30-36mins per game) puts him over that 15ppg mark, and makes him a solid 3rd option, which is exactly what he should be given what Roy and Aldridge already do.
If you were making this argument about Bayless, I wouldn't blink an eye. Bayless was a consistently effective college scorer who struggled as a rookie. It happens. Oden was, at best, an inconsistent offensive weapon in college. A high percentage of his points were "hustle" points. My "novel theory" is that a 4x4 pickup doesn't go to bed one night and wake up a formula one race car. And no...the fact that the pickup was (already) prone to flat tires in college doesn't change my mind! Look, this part of the argument began with 2 posters implying Oden should be the focal point of the offense. I strongly disagree. Let's just leave it at that.
Big Bill did average 15 PPG....he also averaged 22 RPG and (as you pointed out) 42 MPG. Different era. I will (sadly) concede that Oden has a better chance of reaching 15 PPG than the 22 RPG/42 MPG level....but all this really misses the point. The real issue, is that Russel (unlike Wilt or Shaq) didn't win games with his scoring. The Celtics didn't win by forcing the ball into Russel.
And this does not disagree with our claim - Oden is on pace for 14.8PPG/36M as a glorified garbage man - if all you do is take him from 9 FGA to 12FGA in 36M - you are not force feeding him - and he will give you 18PPG right there. In other words - I agree that he will not be an all-league scorer - but I disagree with the idea that 15PPG is what you can expect from him - I think that 18-20PPG is more reasonable and without a major shift in the game plan or taking shots from our other big scorers (Roy/LMA).
I know that you must be aware that Oden hasn't yet played a college or NBA season where he wasn't recovering from a significant injury. The fact that his offensive game is undeveloped shouldn't surprise anyone. Trying to project what Greg will ultimately be able to do offensively based strictly upon his less than healthy one year of college ball and partial season in the NBA is absurd. Most NBA rookies need at least one healthy year to figure things out and then make major improvements in their second seasons, yet you don't cut Oden any slack despite the fact that he has much stronger physical reasons why his offensive game should be lagging behind.
I can't lie - I agree with you. I want to believe all the excuses that are made for Greg, and that he hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential. My eyes just won't lie to me. He looked just as clumsy and raw in the Houston series as he did at the beginning of the year. I saw little to no improvement - no adjustments. His defensive fundamentals were awful to start the season, and just never got better. He reaches, he doesn't move his feet or get low enough, his idea of stopping the ball is hip checking guys as they blow by him. I don't understand how people can even argue that Greg should have been fed the ball more in the post. Talk about stagnating the offense (if you thought Z-Bo was bad) Each of Greg's moves take about 5 seconds. He dribbles, backs down, dribbles, backs down . . . meanwhile he doesn't see the floor at all when he has the ball. He's got to be able to get the ball and make a quick move - a spin, a drop stop, just do it already! And when he has the ball under the basket he pump fakes, lowers his shoulder, pump fakes again (holding the ball at his waist) and ALWAYS tries to just power his way to the rim. You can't do that in the NBA Greg. He did draw some fouls that way, but all too often he also got called for traveling, offensive fouls, 3 seconds, and got stripped COUNTLESS times. You can't tell me they didn't work with him on keeping the ball up higher and going up quicker, but I never saw it. (watch Pau Gasol and Tim Duncan - they never bring the ball down) I looked for that adjustment all year - never happened. Nobody wants Greg to succeed more than I do. I want to be in this guys camp. There were a few games this year (Boston home game comes to mind) when he played with fire. I kept thinking - HERE it is! He's finally getting it. Then he would look lethargic and disinterested the next game. I don't know if it was a lack of confidence or (gulp) he just doesn't want it that bad. I want to believe we'll see a new GO next year. Maybe he'll come back with quicker post moves, more intensity, better fundamentals defensively . . . but like Oldmangrouch I've tempered my expectations. I sure hope that Greg is taking this offseason seriously. I hope he's up for the challenge and determined to prove his critics wrong. But his game needs some serious polishing, and who's working with him? All I read is that he's back at home and he's going to work out with people at Ohio State and go to summer school. This offseason is huge for him. Even his most loyal supporters will have a tough time if he's a carbon copy next year of what we saw this year.
Who said it has to happen in one night? No one said that he'd go from inconsistent NBA scorer to dominant NBA scorer in one night. But you seem determined to pretend that recovering from microfracture surgery doesn't have any effect, his being 21 years old doesn't matter, his having had only 1 year of high-level basketball prior to this season doesn't matter. All of these things obviously matter. So acting like his rookie season problems will characterize his entire career is silly. Had you been a Magic fan in Howard's rookie year, you would have been assuring the rest of the Magic fans that the awkward, confused Howard would never be more than possibly a great rebounder and defender and no real threat on offense. And I watched every televised Ohio State game when Oden was there. A large percentage of his points weren't "hustle" points. That's completely wrong. He was inconsistent because Ohio State, like most college teams, jacked up a ton of outside shots. When they actually went into Oden, he generally scored or drew a foul.
Parker led the Spurs in scoring this year, but you're right in terms of recent history and successful teams... Ed O.
Oden is not a bust. He had a disappointing first year. But 9 and 7 really isn't that bad... He will be fine, with minor improvements he will be averaging a double-double in his 2nd year, and if he makes the improvements i've been talking about, then he will be great. Get in shape, lose weight to college/high school weight, regain athleticim, work on post moves, watch tapes to correct foul problems. I think those were my main points, and I think those can easily be taken care of this off season. On top of that, the natural progression in his game he will get by just working out this offseason on bball rather than rehab and his experience with Team USA will really make him improve a lot. Next year really is a make or break year for him though, and I think he knows that. But remember, for most players, the largest improvement comes between their 1st and 2nd year. I don't see how it will be any different for GO. I agree. I just skip the posts that continue to list excuses and talk about how if you adjust pace/minutes/fouls/everything that he actually had a good year. IMO, he did or he didn't.
I think the fans hated him because he was a fat lazy piece of shit who didn't play even the tiniest amount of defense. Remember the time he said he needed to miss a game due to a death in the family, then spent that whole night at a strip club where he didn't even pay his tab? I do. Remember all the times Portland would play 4 on 5 on d because he couldn't be bothered to run down the court? I do. He wasn't sent packing because he stifled the offense. He was sent packing because he was a locker room cancer who didn't give one shit about winning. Please don't compare Oden to Stat-Bo. Ever.
Averaging 15 PPG in college is comparable, if not better, to how a lot of the great NBA big men did in college. Patrick Ewing averaged 15 a game for his 4-year college career. Alonzo Mourning averaged 16 a game for his college career.
The problem is, we have been hearing this mantra for *3* seasons. First at Ohio State, and now as a Blazer. Except for brief spurts in the second half of his season at Ohio State, Oden has never really lived up to the hype. The constant excuse has been that "fluke" injuries prevent us from seeing the "real" Oden. At what point do we say "OK, this IS the real Oden"? I'm not trying to be obnoxious here - it is an honest question.
No we haven't. No one (except you, apparently) thought Oden was disappointing at Ohio State. Oden was still considered the right pick at #1 after his year at Ohio State. Considering what an immense statistical year Durant had, that speaks volumes about how well perceived Oden was going into the draft. Have you seen the numbers players like Duncan, Ewing, Robinson, Olajuwon, Mourning put up as college freshmen? Oden's numbers actually exceeded their averages. Might as well give Oden one NBA season after recovering from microfracture surgery before deciding he's a bust.
I had a longer post that got eaten by the website. Minstrel makes a good point, but regardless, you can have free license to label him a bust after next season if you want. I think it is dangerous to do so. However, I think it is irresponsible to suggest a player is a bust after one season of play.
