It sure seems more and more like the 2010 free agent extravaganza is fools gold. I'm going to laugh when the Knicks clear all this space, destroy their team in the process, and then get nothing in return. No LeBron James. No Dwyane Wade. No Chris Bosh. Who are they left with?
I don't think Joe will leave Atlanta. They've got a great young core down there, he is the leader and he is the star. In New York he'd be second to Amar'e and who knows what kind of bench they will have to put around him and Amar'e. Mostly I look for Bosh to leave Toronto to go to Miami to be with Wade and for LeBron to stay in Cleveland.
With the salary cap declining, there's speculation that teams will be able to pay their stars $35-40 million more than any other outside bidders. A player would have to be really miserable or see a tremendous opportunity to pass up on that much money. And honestly, I don't see either. All of the teams gearing up for 2010 are either rebuilding or mediocre fringe teams that all promise more rebuilding. And I don't see any of the 2010 superstars all that miserable. People keep talking about how they want to test the open market, but who are they kidding? Their price is already set in stone (the league maximum). What their hesitance to re-up has really done is put pressure on their current teams to step it up and surround them with playoff-calibre talent. And for the most part it's worked.
To be fair, when you're starting with a team built by Zeke, destroying it may not be the worst course of action.
Uh... we Portland fans don't really have room to laugh at anyone.. all we have heard for 18 months was we were clearing space to make a run at some premier FA's in the summer of 09.. how'd that work out for us?
Haven't you heard, it's KP. This is all just part of the master plan. It's all smoke and mirrors. In KP we trust!
Honestly, clearing space of any years free agents seems like a waste of time. You end up paying a premium price for a decent, but not great player. At the end of the day, Wade, LeBron, Bosh, Joe Johnson, etc... with stay with their respective teams. Though everyone talks about winning, it really all about the money. They can make more where they are now, so that is where they will stay. The Knicks are fooling themselves if they believe differently. They need to build up their young talent, trade pieces that are redundant for other decent players and then grow the team.
How is this the same? First of all, there are some Knicks fans running around with LeBron James Knick Jerseys.... Maybe I don't get out enough, but I have yet to see anyone running around with a Hedo Turkoglu Blazers jersey in Portland. Second, it seems like the Knicks are banking their entire future on the free agency of 2010. The Blazers have merely been saying that the 2009 free agency was going to be a great way to add a solid piece. This free agent market is barren compared to the list of names that are available next summer.
Shaq left as a free agent, it does happen. Sure those level of signings are rare for teams with cap space. But when a team does add an elite player and the only cost is money, as opposed to talent, well they look brilliant.
Yeah, but the Shaq signing was 13 years ago. Since then, I think the only top-tier player who's moved in free agency is Steve Nash. And the only reason he switched teams was because Dallas no longer wanted him. If they had elected to re-sign him, he'd have stayed. So that adds a little context to teams dreaming about James, Wade, Bosh or Stoudemire (if he proves to still be at All-NBA level next season) switching teams. It's possible Bosh will move but, considering history and the fact that Toronto can offer Bosh the most, I would say it's far from a fait accompli that he leaves Toronto.
Off the top of my head (not sure if they qualify as top-tier, but neither did Nash at the time when he was signed): Grant Hill (disaster) Tracy McGrady (granted it looked like huge overpayment before he broke out in his first ORL season) Lamar Odom Elton Brand (disaster) Gilbert Arenas (he wasn't top-tier at the time) Billups (same as above) Hill was unquestionably a superstar at the time, just had his best season. I agree the rest weren't All-NBA when they bolted. Brand was All-Star level though.
Well this should be interesting now that the cap is rumored to be going down to the 50-53 million range next summer
Yeah, you're right, Hill was a top-tier free agent. I forgot him. McGrady and Arenas turned out to a be top-tier players, but they were "prospects" on some level when signed. I agree that you can sometimes get a top-tier player in free agency if you take a risk on someone who's not there. My point was that players who are already prime superstars almost never switch teams. Since Shaq, you could say only Hill and Nash (if you consider him one) switched teams. Brand was coming off injuries and a below-prime season and seemed, to me, to have as many doubters as supporters. Of course, you might get a McGrady or Arenas if you give a big deal to a promising young player, or you may get Eddie Robinson, Ron Mercer or post-Lakers Eddie Jones.
My long post about why this is bad not for the teams, but taking money out of the players' pockets if they opt out. http://sportstwo.com/blog/uncategor...y-2010-salary-cap-means-to-the-class-of-2003/ excerpt:
But we knew that the second we traded Z-bo. And still it was our long-term strategy. Trumping using RLEC at the deadline for a big contract.
No excuse for not using RLEC, but I believe that one of Chris Paul, Deron Williams and then Danny Granger was probably the target this summer before they all re-signed with their teams.
