Glad to see you guys are finally starting to come around to the fact that Oden is a role player.... now, there is nothing wrong with Role Players - they help you win games - they are extremely important.. however - Oden was drafted #1 overall - above a kid in Durant who has limitless potential and was a SURE FIRE superstar. That is what I have always had a problem with.. guys like Oden are way more easily found than guys like Durant. We made a mistake.
I can name only two or three that are similar to Oden in the NBA. There are like, 6 - 10 guys like Durant (at this stage of his career) in the NBA. Durant is more developed at this stage in the things he does well than Oden, but a couple of years from now my guess is that Oden will have the more appeal to more teams than will Durant. IMO!
I agree with you that you can't have nothing inside if you want to contend but you can get by with a serviceable big as long as you have two stars to go with him Durant, he's the better scorer, as least I think he will be Roy, creating for Durant True, but Roy is your best playmaker. And we're talking about Oden and Durant, either way you don't have a PG OK, I don't know Roy well enough to say he could or couldn't be. I'll take your word for it but I thought he looked like he had some defensive potential Roy can't do everything by himself and Oden doesn't look like he'll ever be that second star. A serviceable big, yes, but not a #2 option. Maybe LMA will be that guy? True, but I don't think Roy/Oden can win without another star. A decent big is easier to find than another star player who can carry a team for stretches. Not a big fan of that analogy. Having Roy work by him self will not get max production from the team, he needs someone else who can carry the load. A lot of stars won't operate well if they have to defer to someone else; I just think that with what roy brings to the table he can accomodate another star next to him. I certainly don't think he's good enough to contend by himself, with just solid role players around him.
So far, he does look like he will be a star down the line. As a rookie recovering from injury, he put up an 18 PER. And that actually underrates his play, since PER doesn't meaningfully account for defense and Oden's defense was very good. His main problem was health and fouls, limiting his court time. Injuries could certainly sink his career, but I don't think it's reached the point where that should be expected. Foul troubles I definitely expect to decrease with increased experienced and full recovery from surgery.
You can only name two or three NBA centers that average 8 and 7 , have slow feet, bad hands and poor work ethics? The NBA is littered with guys like that on almost every roster. Please name the 6-10 guys in the NBA that are 20 years old and average 25+ ppg, 6+ Rebs on 48% FG and 42% 3pt.
I love Greg...cheer for him every game...was excited when we drafted him..etc. I just think it's a stretch to say that he looks like he'll be "a star down the line." I'd be happy at this point to see him actually become an above average starting center.
His advanced stats look very good. By "looks", if one means "using eyeballs", then I would agree with you... he looks awkward and unsure of himself. If, though, but "looks" one means "projects", then the stats say in SPITE of the eyeball test he had a very effective year last season when he was on the floor. His rebounding and his ability to draw fouls were both very impressive, and given his age he should only get better. Ed O.
I think it may take a couple of years for Greg to look not 'awkward' on offense, but even if that never develops he's still going to have to be doubled or shadowed just based on his size and strength. He will always draw fouls just because the other team doesn't want him to get an easy two, and that is an invaluable trait regardless if he develops any consistent post moves.
That definition would be what I call an "above average" center depending on the degree and amount of disruption he causes on defense.
I used the word "looks" in response to the person I was responding to using that word, not to convey how he appears to the eye. I agree that he looks awkward on the court. Ultimately, it's not appearances that matter, it's actual production. His production when on the court was strong...and for a rookie who was recovering from surgery, it was consistent with a future star. That doesn't mean he actually will become a star. Nothing is guaranteed. But he was billed as a star talent by the scouting community and his first season didn't contradict that scouting consensus. He "looked" disappointing and his minutes played were disappointing...but his on-court production was actually very good.
I can't entirely agree with that. A player can have a nice PER without the ability to create offense for himself - and that is the part of Oden's game that flunks the "eyeball" test. That is a big part of the reason I am so excited about Miller. With him in the fold, Oden (and others) should get more "easy" baskets.
Serious question. If Oden went through the NBA combine again tomorrow, do you think his results would be anywhere near as stellar? Frankly, I don't.....and don't believe they ever will be. You can't just blame the surgery either. Do you remember Sabonis when he was Oden's age? I doubt there was a 7' in the world who ran the floor better than he did. The Sabonis we saw in Portland looked more like a tree trunk. It wasn't just injuries either - his physique *changed* as he aged. Sabonis had a tremendous understanding of how to play the game. As he got stronger and slower (and lost lateral quickness to the achilles injuries), his game and skills evolved to compensate. IMHO, Oden has to prove he is capable of making that same evolution before he can be considered more than just a good, useful player. (I will now put away my soapbox and run for cover)
If he's heavier now, they wouldn't be. I think he can slim down and recoup most of the athleticism he showed in that combine. The question is, is he better off as a player at his combine weight and athleticism or somewhat heavier and stronger, at the expense of some of that athleticism? Hopefully, the Blazers staff and Oden make the right call on that. That's about a decade or more of aging and battering. Obviously, Oden won't be a gazelle when he's early- to mid-30s. I think for the next 5-10 years, he'll be one of the best athletes in the NBA (declining toward the end of that window). Oden definitely has to get "smarter" about the game (I put that in quotation marks, because I think it is largely savvy that comes from experience, not an intellect issue) and more skilled. But you're compressing a discussion that's appropriate for a 10 year veteran into a look back at Oden's rookie season. He's played one year (less than that, due to injuries). Isn't it a little early to be wondering about evolution and veteran smarts? He was playing at less than full strength. I think that through this coming season, we'll have a much better look at Oden. If at the end of the 2009-10 season he looks similar to his 2008-09 form, I'll be worried. Until then, I'd like to see what he does in his first, full-strength season.
Defense and rebounding win games and win titles. Oden gives you both, Durant gives you neither. I'll still take Oden over Durant and won't change my mind until Durant's team finishes ahead of us in the standings and/or advances further than we do in the post season. Let Durant win the scoring titles while Oden's team wins the rings. BNM
I try to follow the data (and expert opinions when it comes to prospects without much NBA history), especially for Blazers players, since I know I'm likely to lose some objectivity. If I did absolutely nothing but watch Oden last year, I'd have been very disappointed. But I think there are too many emotional and cognitive flaws in doing nothing but watching a top prospect play. Thus, I think advanced numbers are important. So, to answer an assertion you never made: I don't think I am being an apologist. I believe in Oden because I think his production so far in combination with scouting opinions warrants it. If he stalls out or regresses or otherwise starts to contradict what was believed about him, my opinion about him will change.
All that is required for him to be an above average starting center is staying out of foul trouble. His Per-36 numbers as an out-of-shape rookie coming off microfracture surgery were 14.8 PTS/36, 11.6 REB/36, 1.9 BLK/36 on 0.564 FG% with a PER of 18.1 and a TRB% of 20.0. How many starting centers topped those numbers last season. I guarantee it wasn't more than half of them (actually, only one starting center, Dwight Howard, opeed all those numbers). So, even if Oden's per minute production doesn't improve one bit, if he can cut down on the fouls enough to stay in the game for > 30 MPG, he's already an above average starting center. The good news is, his per minute production will improve as he regains his explosiveness, his lateral quickness, and his confidence. It will also improve with experience (as it would with any young player). So, look for both his minutes and his per minute production to both go up. If they do, he won't be just an above average starting center, he will be one of the best centers in the league. BNM
Injuries is the only thing that worries me about Oden. If he stays healthy he's going to be a dominant center. He just needs a little time.
He is above average! He had a PER of 18 in limited minutes with injury problems coming off of microfracture. He led the NBA in Offensive Rebounding Rate. I have to quote what Norkstroll said on Blazersedge awhile back: And here's the proofs of the above statement about Oden and Robert Parish.
Blazers ending up #2 would have been the real lottery win.[/QUOTE] Bullshit. If you think the grapes are sour, go buy yourself some fucking strawberries and quit telling us we need to ignore the sweet, sweet taste of these wonderful grapes just because you think all of us should have bought strawberries.
