USA Today: Could we be wrong about global warming?

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by Shooter, Jul 17, 2009.

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  1. mobes23

    mobes23 Well-Known Member

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    I offered scientific arguments. I then reiterated scientific arguments. Like I've said before, go back and look. (And, by the way, we both know you read my entire post, but you weren't able to come up with a reasonable response and then copped out.)

    Looks like an interesting article in Nature: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090610154453.htm
     
    mobes23, Aug 1, 2009
    #341
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    That correlations between any two things can be made to look scary or not so scary.

    The effect of NATURAL global warming does seem to have coincided with people living longer. I suspect a lot of it has to do with the environment being better for agriculture. In fact, I would argue that Man has gone from spending nearly 100% of his time gathering food to the point, today, where a relative few (Arthur Daniels Midland and other big companies) do all this work, allowing for pursuits of things like Internets and building of bigger cities.

    As much as you argue that there needs to be some expertise in evaluating all the evidence on both sides, there's a lot of plain old common sense that can be applied, too.
     
    Denny Crane, Aug 1, 2009
    #342
  3. yakbladder

    yakbladder Grunt Third Class

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    It's still ironic. Let me see if I can make it clearer for you:

    - You claim barfo dismisses the "expert" credentials of an individual because that individual presents evidence contrary to his belief that there is man-made climate change.
    - I claim the others dismiss the evidence presented by thousands of individuals because their evidence contradicts those others' preconceived beliefs.
    - You do not call out those other people, just barfo.

    Better?

    The point still stands either way.
     
    yakbladder, Aug 1, 2009
    #343
  4. yakbladder

    yakbladder Grunt Third Class

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    PG, here's the issue I have with your take on this - let me use an example - there could be 9 million accredited flavor experts in the world. 8,999,999 say "this jellybean tastes like lemon". 1 expert says "this jellybean tastes like lime". You have a preconceived notion that the jellybean will taste like lime. So you go, "Aha! I've found this expert who says what I believe! Therefore, it is right." Is it possible that the 1 expert is right and 8,999,999 are wrong? Sure it is. Is it likely? Not really. There have been times in our history when that hasn't been the case, but I don't see that happening now.

    Pushing aside the obvious fact that both camps would have to begin by defining an acceptable term for "expert" in order to weed out the "hacks" and "google scrubs", my question to you would be this -> What would it take for you to be convinced? Would it take Rush Limbaugh blaring out about how man-made climate change exists and is potentially fatal to the Earth? Or would it take some piece of evidence that would sway you and if so what type of evidence? Because anyone..ANYONE...can find evidence to refute a point of view. And it seems that the only deciding factor is pre-conceived notions that is deciding what is right and wrong.
     
    yakbladder, Aug 1, 2009
    #344
  5. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    I come in on this side of the debate...

    No one has shown me (to my personal satisfaction yet) that there is a clear winner or loser to this. For every chart Denny throws up on here, someone's going to find an "expert" that they believe that refutes it. For every time someone says "there's 9M experts that believe it exists", someone like Crichton can do a bunch of research quoting papers and analysis, not Al Gore's powerpoint.

    So why is our government trying to create policy and laws, potentially handicapping our economy, for something that isn't a given yet? Especially since China and India (and much of the rest of the developing world) are, by their actions, saying they couldn't care less about the planet if it means cheap energy and development? :dunno: I'm not saying discontinue research--I'm not even saying to stop the grants. I'm asking "How about we attempt to figure this out first, before enacting policy on a guess?"
     
    BrianFromWA, Aug 1, 2009
    #345
  6. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    The crux is simply that, while we pretenders (I agree with mobes23 that we all basically are) on this forum cannot prove it conclusively one way or the other for you, the vast majority of the scientific community does feel that it has been demonstrated. That's why many governments are accepting these conclusions and making policy for it. The argument on this forum really boils down not to which of us can prove what, but whether we should believe the scientific establishment or the small minority who suggest otherwise.

    As for China and India, it's somewhat akin to nuclear test ban treaties...they're a "luxury" for those who have, a problem for those who have not, even if it's a "good thing" in the abstract. I don't mean the words "luxury" and "problem" literally, since obviously it hurts anyone's economy...but it's similar to middle class or above middle class doing things that cost more but are better for the environment...they can afford to do it, lower class people can't.

    India and China developing their economies in a rapid, "who cares about anyone else?" way, similar to how the US or UK did in the past. It's tough to tell them "Do as we do now, not as we did then." That doesn't mean that we shouldn't still act responsibly and encourage them to act responsibly too, especially as they become global economic powers in their own rights.
     
    Minstrel, Aug 1, 2009
    #346
  7. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    It's a debate over credentials because none of us know enough about the subject to actually debate the science. So having a scientific debate, while highly amusing, would be pointless. Not that this thread isn't fairly pointless anyway...

    As for my 'dogma', my dogma is not that there is or isn't global warming, but that science is the way to determine that question, and scientists are the people who do that. I don't have the time and energy to become an expert in this field, but I think I have a pretty good idea how much I don't know, and I have respect for those that do know.

    And that's fine with me. I don't reject their work. If in the end they win out, then I'll accept that conclusion. At the moment they are a small minority.

    As I say, I don't reject the work of anyone who is actually employed as a "climate scientist" (whatever that means). The EPA guy and the mining geologist, however, are apparently not employed as "climate scientists" (whatever that means). In fact, I seem to recall Denny found one actual climate scientist who agreed with his point of view - not sure if that was this thread or another one - and I did not dismiss him as unqualified.

    Well, I didn't bring him into the discussion as an expert. It seems to me that if you want to present him as an expert you should give us some reason to believe that he is. And no, a bachelor's degree in physics doesn't cut the mustard. As for weakness in the science, sure. No one is saying we have a perfect understanding. But the science we have is the best we can do, currently.

    My point is really that: science is the best we can do. Religion, politics, wild assumptions, random guesses, and graphs downloaded from the internet are all far lesser approaches. And right now, the science says global warming is in part caused by us humans.

    barfo
     
    barfo, Aug 1, 2009
    #347
  8. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    No it doesn't, at least not beyond reproach or skepticism. I can see why you would feel that way, though, since you automatically reject any data, or any analysis of data, that questions your predetermined conclusion. Whoever posted that the only "experts" you accept are those who you agree with. I'd ask what makes the head of the IPCC an expert, but I wouldn't expect a serious answer from you.

    I think that's called willful ignorance, right?
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2009
    PapaG, Aug 1, 2009
    #348
  9. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Saying "no it doesn't" isn't much of an argument.

    You are confused. I'm not looking at any data one way or the other. I'm trusting the scientists to look at the data. They are better at it than me.

    It's called knowing your limitations. I'm not an expert, and looking at graphs on the internet won't make me one.

    barfo
     
    barfo, Aug 1, 2009
    #349
  10. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I'm actually not sure whether he is an expert. He's clearly a successful scientific manager, but I have no idea what he actually knows. His role may be more akin to a CEO than a working scientist (I'm just speculating, I have no idea how the IPCC is run).

    barfo
     
    barfo, Aug 1, 2009
    #350
  11. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    Data has been presented. You won't even read it. Willful ignorance.



    You are accepting the data from one side, and rejecting the data from another side. That's called bias. It has no place in science.

    You're no expert, yet you can judge which people in the field are experts, and which people are not. I'm assuming they are all experts, and there is some conflicting data. You are arguing an absolute that is not an absolute, and I am wondering why data that casts doubt on the "consensus" is suppressed or ignored.
     
    PapaG, Aug 1, 2009
    #351
  12. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Yes, willful ignorance. Because I know how much effort it would take to properly understand and analyze. I don't have the time and energy for that, so I'll rely on those who do.

    I'm not doing science here. I'm just accepting the conclusions of the scientists.

    No, I can judge which people can be presumed to be experts, and which cannot.

    You can assume what you want, and yes, of course there is some conflicting data. There is always some conflicting data.

    You are wondering that because you don't know that there is always conflicting data in any complex field. It's not a simple subject.

    barfo
     
    barfo, Aug 1, 2009
    #352
  13. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    You're accepting the conclusions of some scientists. Others, you ignore or smear.



    Sure you can, and I can laugh at you for doing so.


    Um, not really. There are sets in science where there is no conflicting data. I don't see people challenging the molecular make-up of water, for instance.


    "The debate is over".

    Anyhow, since you admit you know jack squat about science, I'll have to disregard your sentence, but I will stress that you are the one being "simple" here by smearing/disregarding any conflicting data. Seriously, thanks for the laugh.
     
    PapaG, Aug 1, 2009
    #353
  14. mobes23

    mobes23 Well-Known Member

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    On the other hand, ignoring your own dearth of scientific knowledge or understanding while claiming expertise means you know what you're talking about? :smiley-hmm:

    Refute this, wise and all knowing one: http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/papers/ngillett/PDFS/nature08047.pdf
     
    mobes23, Aug 1, 2009
    #354
  15. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    I'm not refuting anything. That's the point.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2009
    PapaG, Aug 1, 2009
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  16. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    PapaG, Aug 1, 2009
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  17. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    The "molecular make-up of water" isn't a model. It's a stand-alone empirical fact. All models have some level of uncertainty or conflicting data, because all scientific models are inherently limited by human knowledge, which is not all-encompassing or even close.

    The fact there are questions and some conflicting data in the man-made global warming model doesn't mean that it's not solid science. There is always the possibility that it is wrong, and any credible scientist would agree to that...that possibility exists with every single scientific model. What the vast majority of informed scientists say is that the bulk of evidence suggests that man-made effects are amplifying the natural temperature cycle. How much and what the ultimate effects will be aren't conclusively known and the scientific community (Al Gore isn't part of it) doesn't claim that it is known.
     
    Minstrel, Aug 1, 2009
    #357
  18. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Yep.

    I did talk about common sense in a previous post, I'll get to that in reply to Minstrel below.


    The vast majority of "experts" who study space BELIEVE that we are not alone. There's funding for projects like SETI and grants for fields like astrobiology (where scientists make 3d models of what ET might look like). Yet everywhere we do look we find frigid barren deserts, planets and moons without plate tectonics, radiation on a scale makes it so no life can for long, not one single signal of any kind there's life near any star, etc... There's a consensus among these scientists that there surely is life out there.

    They're playing a game of odds, probability and statistics, that giant numbers means only a tiny chance makes it so.

    The grounds for there being life out there are no better than there's evidence we're causing (more) global warming. You want me to believe because someone else believes. You sound like a religious nut trying to convert me to your religion. See it?

    Here's where common sense comes in. We can create a decision matrix, 2x2:

    Code:
    ---------- Is Manmade | Is Not
Act           A       |     B
Don't Act     C       |     D
    Let's look at the consequences.

    A) Save the world!
    B) Starve to death.
    C) Learn to swim.
    D) Profit from not wasting money on whatever Act costs.

    I think you propose B. We waste a lot of money for no real good. We end up living in caves because no energy we can produce is clean enough. Either that or we spend 100% of our time (Man as a whole) making and gathering energy; we starve to death.

    I propose D and I am right!

    We need to consider the other two. The consequences of C will happen in any case. Instead of in 100 years (if you're right) in 200. You cannot deny the Earth is warming without Man's help.

    A is the biggie. There's no compelling evidence we can save the world or need to. In fact, the consensus is equally sound that there is life out there, so you may as well argue we spend all our resources preparing for an attack from little green men.

    So D is right.
     
    Denny Crane, Aug 1, 2009
    #358
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I would add an irony to my previous post, OT because it's about the big numbers and life thing.

    If the numbers and probabilities are to be the sole basis for belief (belief is a religious thing, not a scientific one)...

    Then there must be multiple other Minstrels out there. And other earths. And so on.

    Don't laugh, because it is somewhat mainstream belief among scientists and mathematicians.
     
    Denny Crane, Aug 1, 2009
    #359
  20. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    I'm afraid not. I realize the "science believes in aliens as a religious belief" is your go-to tenet about science, but it's nonsense. "Science" has no position on whether there's intelligent life out there and certainly no model regarding it (Drake's equation is merely a toy to play with, not a model). There are people who search for intelligent life (looking for such a thing is certainly a scientific endeavour) and there are differing opinions on the likelihoods of ever finding intelligent life (or even non-intelligent life). But there's definitely no conclusion about it, because nothing has been observed yet.

    This has nothing at all to do with the model of man-made global warming, which is based on actual observations and data. The preponderance of which, most scientists who study the issue believe, suggests man has effect on global temperatures.

    Your "decision matrix" is equivalent to Drake's equation. There's nothing scientific about it, just a "fill in your chosen probabilities and results to reach whatever conclusion you want."
     
    Minstrel, Aug 1, 2009
    #360
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