Semi-OT: Hollinger talks about Durant

I didn't say to discount it entirely. What I was commenting on was the idea that this result shows conclusively that Durant is a fraud or overrated. It does nothing of the sort. The guy who came to this result gives the impression that he does believe his model is the end all be all of player evaluation. In this he is flat out wrong.


The ball being thrown is a bad example. We know through observable data that if a person throws a ball it will move through the air. That is causation. The thrower caused the ball to move through the air. As long as we can observe the entire event and all it's parameters we can be sure the throw caused the ball to move through the air. Causation also pretty much ensures correlation so of course there is a 100% correlation between throwing a ball and that ball moving through space.

What we have here are two complex mathimatical models that are producing incompatable results. Sure the models attempt to abstract things, but they are still only models.

 

There are some players who don't seem to be able to make the players around them any better but are very good in their own right. Durant may be one... Iverson, Outlaw, Zach Randolph etc may be others. Basketball is a team game... and while all those players excel indivdually, I don't think they add a whole lot otherwise. If you play the right kind of team basketball it doesn't matter if one player can go 1 on 5 and create their own shot with great success.

The current Blazers seem to be a great example of a good team that plays good team basketball. I would say Outlaw and Bayless are the two that are struggling most to make others better.

 

It's not a bad example, it's a philosophical point. All "causation" is actually just correlation that has such a high level of predictive value that we feel secure in saying A causes B. It's theoretically possible that the thrower does not cause the ball to fly through the air...that the throwing motion and the ball moving are unrelated but just happen to occur together every time we observe it. (Theoretically possible but, of course, vanishingly unlikely.)

The reason I brought it up is that there is no objective point at which correlation turns into causation. All we have is more predictive correlations and less predictive correlations. When we think we can explain a highly predictive correlation, we call it causation.

So saying that +/- or Adjusted +/- is "just a correlation" isn't that useful an analysis. Everything is just a correlation. The question is how predictive it is (ideally, we'd also like an expanation for why it is predictive...but even without that, high predictive value is still the key).

True, but so is all of human knowledge. We know no perfect, foundational truths...we only have models for how the world works. And we keep looking for better models.

 

...HONK ONCE!!!

 

...precisely why TO must go, just like zBO!!! [throw in J.B. if you have to]

 

There is also the obvious possibility that OKC has a poorly contructed roster, and that until PJ was fired, they were poorly coached. Playing 2 SFs (Durant and Green) and a revolving door at center just might not be the best way to win games. When Durant is out, maybe they are forced to discard "Nellie ball" and play a more conventional game. Until we see what Durant can do playing next to a real PF and a decent center, much of the bashing is premature. I'm betting that if Durant got to play alongside someone like Joel, a lot of this debate would suddenly sound silly.

 

I'm not saying that Durant is a bad player, i'm just saying that he is getting pretty overrated with the talk of him eventually being as good as Lebron.

 

You lost me there

 

Durant's numbers are not close to LeBrons's. In his 2nd year LeBron had an epic 25.7 PER vs. Durant's very good but not close to it 20.8

Add the fact that LeBron played defense from the get go - and as usual, Durant is overrated...

 

You'd have 4 guys standing around watching Zbo run down the shot clock forcing a shot...

 

Not really.

http://82games.com/04CLE9C.HTM

 

The assist numbers make a huge difference to me. And I do not see Durant as being as good of a defender as LeBron. Plus, with at this +/- stuff going around I think it would be tough to find someone who would pick Durant over LeBron

 

You have to take into account that Durrant is starting the game against the other team's best. OkC is a ton of roll players and some young guys, so perhaps when the young guys are in getting experience with Durrant, they struggle, but the bench is actually a good bench and brings them back into games against the other team's bench, but when the stars come back in is when Durrant usually does.

 

Durant's body will never allow him to be a great defender. Something that MJ, LeBron, and Kobe all excel at it which is why they're considered the "complete package". Durant is an offensive juggernaut and that's pretty much it. Therefore he's not really a centerpiece material. At the very least, in my opinion.

 

The assists advantage is HUUUUUUGE.

Both players have a high usage rate, which you would expect, and as is right for such talents. But in LeBron's case it ends up helping the other players, his team, and to win games. LeBron Usage 30% (34% mvp); Durant Usage 28%

Other Advanced Stats for 2nd years; (LeBron's MVP year stats in noted for comparison):

True Shooting Percentage:
LeBron: 55% (59% mvp)
Durant: 58%
No doubt about it, Durant is a great shooter and scorer. LeBron isn't nearly as good a shooter. But, his efficiency was close due to free throws. A LeBron type scorer is so much more valuable to the team by getting the opponent in foul trouble, breaking down the defense creating easier opportunities for inferior teammates.

Defensive Rebound Percentage:
LeBron: 17% (19% mvp)
Durant: 16%
Durant is much better than his rookie year. He needs to keep working on this.

Assist Percentage:
LeBron: 33% (38% mvp)
Durant: 14%

Offensive Rating:
LeBron: 114 (122 mvp)
Durant: 111 (not bad)

Defensive Rating:
LeBron: 103 (99 mvp)
Durant: 109 (ouch)

Win Shares:
LeBron: 14.1 (19.9 mvp)
Durant: 8.1

The whole line about Durant being as good as LeBron is silly. Sure, Durant may have improved since last season - in fact he looked better at the end of the season then he did at the start - but so did LeBron since his 2nd season.

LeBron went from really good top 5 player his second season, to mindblowing stats in one of the all-time great season performances. The improvement in all areas of his game was significant. Durant getting the kudos at the camp for improving only tells us that Durant continue to improve as he improved from his rookie season. He has to just keep up with LeBron's improvement pace. He will have to do this for 5 or 6 more years.