The 2009/2010 season is upon us. I'll post game threads here. Hopefully other Rocket fans are lurking and will contribute. I'm not so interested in just talking to myself this season, so let's get some good discussion going. This place has been a virtual ghost town the last couple months. Tonight at 9pm (CT), the new look Rockets will be playing on the road at Portland. My projected starting lineup and rotation for the Rockets to start the season is: PG - Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry SG - Trevor Ariza, (Kyle Lowry), (Chase Budinger) SF - Shane Battier, Chase Budinger, (Trevor Ariza) PF - Luis Scola, Carl Landry, (Chuck Hayes) C - Chuck Hayes, David Andersen, Pops Mensah-Bonsu Don't know what kind of rotation Portland is planning, but we can expect Lowry and Brooks to share the court often this game particularly when Fernandez is on the court. I expect Battier to get first dibs guarding Brandon Roy. Historically, he's had trouble with Roy -- Artest actually did a better job last season which is why he got the assignment in the playoffs. Not sure how adept Ariza has been at guarding him, but he'll get his shot as well. Scola will likely check Aldridge, and Hayes will do his best against Oden (to start the game). The dilemma for the Rockets is that Hayes is our best defensive option against Aldridge and Oden and ... well, pretty much any front-court player. Scola and Landry have been killed by Aldridge in the past. As valuable as Hayes is for the Rockets on defense, his total lack of range can make things very difficult for the Rockets on the offensive end. In particular, with the Rockets lacking great finishers overall, it would be in their interest to (a) get Oden out of the game in foul trouble or (b) nullify his defensive impact by drawing him away from the basket. Hayes does neither of those things. For the Rockets to win (very unlikely), they'll need to hit their 3s, and they'll need to find a way to hold their own on the boards. They'll need to decisively beat the Blazers on fast break points. They'll need to both execute and defend the pick and roll to near perfection. Prediction: Blazers - 108, Rockets - 91.
Halftime update: Rockets down 13 at the half, but it could have been much worse. Scola and Landry have provided very little this game. They are the Rockets best two low post players, and they are clearly struggling against the size and athleticism of the Blazers frontline. Rockets outscored by 19 in the 6 minutes Brooks sat out. Without him on the floor, the Rockets clearly lack a playmaker. Ariza did some nice things on offense, but he made many mistakes on the defensive end. He's got a ways to go before becoming the all-league defender the Rockets want him to be. Hayes played terrific. Textbook post defense on Oden, scrapped for offensive rebounds, and he finished on his layups. I wish we could clone him on the defensive side. Budinger played like a rookie in his first game. Andersen hit one jumper, and his ability to stretch defenses could be an asset. But he was out of his element on the defensive side. It will take him a good while to get acclimated to the NBA. Hopefully the Rockets aren't out of playoff contention by then.
Final score: Blazers - 96, Rockets - 87. Very poor start to the third quarter put the Rockets in a hole. Scola was never able to get himself on track. The Rockets made a game of it in the 4th quarter, with a lineup of Brooks - Lowry - Budinger - Landry - Andersen. - Brooks didn't come out of the game in the second half. - Andersen had some good minutes in the 4th quarter, hitting a three pointer and taking advantage of Brandon Roy on a post up. He has potential to be a valuable addition with his ability to stretch defenses. - Budinger struggled with his jumper, but converted a few times in transition and got a dunk on one drive. - Landry struggled against the Blazers length, as in the first half. - Chuck Hayes didn't play in the fourth quarter, but he again did an admirable job defending Oden in the 3rd quarter. - the Blazers had a decisive edge on the boards - winning the offensive rebounding battle 34% to 20%.
Rockets weren't half bad... Although i think most of us expected Ariza to do more, he really isn't that type of player that can shoulder a team.
This was a tough matchup for the Rockets because of all the depth and size Portland has. I didn't watch the game, but judging by the boxscore it appears Scola probably shouldn't have been out there last night with his injury. He shot only 1-6 from the field and only got to the free throw line twice. Was he not getting calls, was he slowed by injury, or did Portland just defend him well? Trying to play Ariza at guard is a big mistake by Adelman. He's better suited to play SF and off the ball at this point in his career.
with opposing centers guarding Scola and Landry, they won't be as effective If AB and Lowry have to work that hard for our offense to look decent, they'll exhaust themselves Too much is being made of Ariza being a go to guy. if he was a go to guy he would have gotten more then the mle.
The only option Adelman has for SG are 6'0 Lowry (who'll likely start tonight against Golden State), McGrady (who's probably 1 1/2 months away), and one of the rookies -- Budinger or Taylor. I can't blame Adelman for starting Ariza and Battier, given those options.
I'm going to post some thoughts on the game from various people around the web. First, Kelly Dwyer (Behind the Boxscore) (link):
Why not retain Brent Barry then until TMac returned or make an acquisition during the summer to shore up the backcourt depth? Rafer Alston is apparently on the block in New Jersey and would make a viable backup. I don't think the Nets would want much back for him either. If the long term plan is to convert Ariza into shooting guard then it makes sense to use him there now so he can gain experience and learn the role while the Rockets go through a season in limbo.
Brent Barry is retired, and at this stage of his career is not adequate to play significant rotation minutes. And there weren't a lot of options to go after in the offseason, that I'm aware of. The Rockets weren't going to give up valued assets just to knab a mediocre SG with a potentially bad contract. Not sure what the Rockets would gain from reacquiring Rafer Alston. I don't think the long term plan is to start Ariza and Battier. It will either be McGrady or someone else. The hope is that Ariza can use this season to improve his offensive skills; that the potential is there. But I don't think Rockets need that to happen, it would just be nice.
Barry retired because they didn't want him back I thought. He would've been a viable stop gap player if/when McGrady returns to the lineup. Alston is a familiar with the system and can give you minutes at either guard position. It would also allow the Rockets to take advantage of the Brooks-Lowry backcourt. Without Yao or TMac to create mismatches on defense the alternative is using the small ball backcourt to force defensive rotations and open looks for the rest of the guys on the floor. Adelman has used this type of lineup plenty of times with great success. It's just one game into the season and I'm over analyzing without even watching the game.
then who do you want to sit, battier or ariza? i don't think they'll use ariza as a true guard anyway. brooks and lowry are going to be the guys with the vast majority of the ball handling duties.
because barry was basically worthless last year and wouldn't shore up anything. i think that would be a terrible idea. bringing in alston would just get in the way of brooks/lowry. both those guys are better than rafer anyway, no reason to bring him in and have him take minutes away from them. the longterm plan likely is battier to the bench with ariza starting at sf with them being able to see time together in small or big lineups.
I'd have Battier come off the bench and use a small ball lineup primarily with Brooks-Lowry-Ariza-Scola-Hayes starting. Barry and Alston are just examples I threw out because they are both familiar with the system. There's other viable free agent guards out there the Rockets could look at.
The Rockets hoped Barry could be that type of player last season, but he was largely ineffective as a ball-handler. Just extremely turnover prone. That's why they decided not to bring him back. I see what you're saying with Alston, but I don't know what the Rockets could offer for him. I mean, if New Jersey would trade him for Cook+Dorsey, maybe the Rockets go for it. But I think it would be a mistake for the Rockets to give up more than that.
The role player the Rockets didn't replace was Von Wafer. I thought Romel Beck would be able to make the team and play the role, but he was waived at the end of preseason. Von Wafer was a knucklehead, but he had his moments off the bench last season scoring and being a playmaker. Maybe Budinger can eventually work his way into the role, but having a guy like Alston would be beneficial for the interim. It just makes it easy to defend a team when they only need to focus on one playmaker on the court.
