http://www.suntimes.com/sports/1850881,nba-bulls-prediction-28.article Why the Bulls will not make the NBA playoffs BY DAN CAHILL | Deputy Sports Editor Are the Bulls better than a year ago when they finished seventh in the conference and lost an epic series against Boston in the first round? Maybe. The bigger question: Did other teams in their conference get better? Most definitely. Therein lies the problem. While I like the additions of Taj Gibson and James Johnson, and I like the fact that Derrick Rose will be a year wiser, other teams behind and ahead of the Bulls improved more significantly. The Celtics got back the injured Kevin Garnett—who didn't even play vs. the Bulls in the playoffs—AND picked up Rasheed Wallace. The Cavs should be a little stronger with Shaquille O'Neal. The Magic get a healthy Jameer Nelson back and added Vince Carter and a very underrated Brandon Bass (this is the bruising forward I thought the Bulls really needed to go after). Those three teams figure to be the elite in the East. In the next tier you have the Wizards rising from the ashes. With a healthy Gilbert Arenas, a steady Antawn Jamison and the addition of Mike Miller, Washington has as formidable a starting five as anyone in the league. The young Atlanta Hawks keep getting better; they have added Jamal Crawford—looking to go to his first playoffs—to their potent offense. The Raptors should be a shoo-in for the playoffs with Chris Bosh getting better each year and Hedo Turkoglu there to provide floor leadership. Undeniably, there is your top six in the East. That leaves the Bulls, Heat, Pistons, 76ers and Pacers fighting for the last two playoff spots. (The Bobcats, Knicks, Nets and Bucks might as well be playing in the developmental league.) As many problems as Michael Beasley has had in Miami, my money is still on D-Wade to will the Heat into the playoffs. The 76ers made the playoffs last year, but they'll have a tough time duplicating that feat without Andre Miller. Does anyone in the league score a quieter 25 than Danny Granger? (See, you probably didn't know he averaged that last year.) But the Pacers still lack a supporting cast for him. So, that eighth and final playoff spot comes down to the Bulls and the Pistons—the team that has the Bulls' leading scorer—Ben Gordon—from the previous four seasons (almost five ... he came up a point short of topping Eddy Curry's 16.1 in his rookie season). So, the Bulls should find out right away if they're better off without Ben Gordon. It's the question Bulls fans have been debating for the last three seasons: Kirk Hinrich or Ben Gordon—who do you keep? While Gordon makes all the plays you see on SportsCenter, Hinrich defends on all the plays that never make the show. And, while I tend to lean to Hinrich as a better overall player, you can't deny that Gordon is a flat-out playmaker. To win in the NBA, you have to have a playmaker. You have to have one (or two) of the Top 10 players in the league, a go-to guy. You can't win with five good players. You win with one great player surrounded by four good ones. Don't believe me? Look at the list of NBA champions over the past 30 years. Only two teams in that group won without a great player (and that could still be argued)—the 2004 Pistons and the 1989 and 1990 Pistons. (Some might say Isiah Thomas is your great player—which he was—but he didn't really take over games the way the others did.) The point is, all of the other champions had names such as Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird. Now, was Gordon in that group? Probably not. But is he one of the Top 10 playmakers in the league right now? If you go by last year's playoff stats he was. He was the eighth leading scorer in the playoffs last year, right up there with LeBron James, Bryant, Wade, Tony Parker, Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki and Brandon Roy. Pretty good company. The Bulls won't miss Gordon's defensive lapses, but they will miss his shot-making ability late in games. With Gordon out of the way, Derrick Rose might step up to be the go-to guy. But, until he develops a more consistent jump shot, teams are going to shut down his drive and make other Bulls beat them. And, here's saying that those other guys won't. Give the Pistons and Gordon the eighth and final playoff spot. Give the Bulls another year of rebuilding.
I think we're better than the team that started last season, and probably a bit worse than the post-trade one that played the last 25 games including playoffs. The former was a borderline 8-seed, the latter was close to a 50 win team. This article did not do much for me. The Cavs, Celtics, and Magic were better than us regardless so their improvement doesn't affect us much. I agree the Wizards will be better this year, but they were awful last year so that doesn't mean much, and it doesn't look like Antwan Jamison is healthy. His reasons for the improvement of the other teams seemed weak. I do agree with him about his opinion on Ben Gordon, but that's why I don't think we'll be as good as last year.
The top 6 seem like a reasonable selection for good reasons. Maybe it's a stretch to put the Wizards in the top 6, so let's look at the remaining 3 spots (top 5 minus Wizards): Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Pistons, 76ers and Pacers fight for the last 3 spots. I peg us at 38-43 win range, barring injury. I peg the Wizards at about the same, and the Heat at 40-45 wins. Give two spots to those teams and you're left with Bulls, 76ers, Pistons. Philly had a great preseason, does it translate to regular season wins? Probably not as bad as you'd think, but I don't see them in the playoffs. That leaves Detroit and the Bulls. Both teams are weak in the post. I like Gordon, Rip, and CV better than any three players on the Bulls, so I give them the edge.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore?gid=2009102829 Detroit 96, Memphis 74 Gordon 7-12, 4-7 3pt, 4-5 FT, 22 points in 26 minutes. Off the bench. Ben Wallce is their starting C.
The Hawks seem like a safe bet to repeat their performance of last year, although adding Jamal Crawford doesn't affect my opinion of them much. I suppose I'm not as high on the Raptors as others are. Replacing Shawn Marion with Hedo Turkoglu seems like a lateral move to me, I see their record having a wide range to it. I'll be surprised if Philly makes the playoffs. Elton Brand doesn't look much better and they lost Andre Miller for nothing. In my view, the Raptors, Bulls, Pacers, Pistons, Wizards, and Heat are all pretty closely matched and fairly small details throughout the season could nudge any of them to fairly extreme outcomes.
I think Toronto seriously underachieved last season. On paper, they had a lot of talent, but the chemistry wasn't there. Sometimes it takes a season to gel, and they're looking pretty good so far. The wizards and heat have at least one guy that can carry a team. Of course if those guys (Arenas, Wade) get hurt, their team will suffer immensely. FWIW http://sportstwo.com/forums/showthread.php?t=148522
Orlando is the only team I see steam rolling this year in the East. The Cavs already look vulnerable and I think the C's get older and more tired as the season goes on and after a hot start don't look nearly as good at the end. The Bulls, Wiz, Hawks, Pistons, Sixers, Heat and Raptors are all in the mix for the last five spots. And they are all one mishap from collapsing. Even Milwaukee and NJ could surprise because the rest of the teams are so mediocre. Detroit lost at home to the Thunder last night and Toronto lost to Memphis. The fourth seed might end up with only 45, 47 wins got you the fourth seed last year.
This is more or less how I feel, although I think I'm more optimistic about the Cavs and Celts than you are. I'm bearish on the Shaq trade for Cleveland, but a healthy Lebron is worth at least 55 wins. The Celts are old but their main guys are all smart players, and Rondo may have quietly become one of the 5-7 best PG's in the league, which helps offset their decline.
I think two of KG, Pierce, Allen, and Sheed miss 15-20 games each. Rondo is one of the five best, but his mental state seems to be a mess, and could go either way depending on how his contract situation plays out. Big Baby is already out for 6 weeks and may take another 4 to lose the 20 lbs he gains while inactive. That's why they didn't suspend him, because they were certain he'd stay home and get fat. Pierce already looks chubby. If the refs call all the handchecking and grabbing, I see the C's being beatable in the playoffs. I still think they are at worst the 3rd seed, but I don't they win they represent the East this year.
You'd think that with Salmons finally having a good game, Deng putting up 26 points, and Hinrich playing next to Rose making him better, we'd win games like tonight. More likely, this is a team that is going to finish above us in the standings and beat us in the playoffs should we make it. We're 1-2 so far and have scored 92, 90, and 87 points. We've held one team under 90 and that was opening night. We can talk about mythical injuries that might happen to other teams as if it somehow makes us a better team, but we have our own injuries to deal with that are just as likely. And Rose is supposedly hobbled by a sore ankle, but not hobbled enough to keep him from putting up 15 shots, grabbing 5 boards, dishing out 5 assists and playing 35 minutes. The good news is Detroit is 1-2, also. They're tough when healthy, but are pretty thin with a guy like Rip injured.
I think that was my point. There are a bunch of mediocre teams. The bulls are going to need one of their late season post all-star break pushes to make the playoffs. But nobody is going to run away with anything.
Luol Deng scored 26 tonight. First game any Bulls player scored 20+. How many times you think it's going to happen this season?
That Deng scores 20+? I'd say at least a third of the time. If he doesn't, the bulls have no shot. Last year he did it 11 times in 49 games, and he was hurt for about a third of those. He did 26 times in 63 games the year before. I might even go higher if he stays healthy. He's going to get the shots, no reason not to score 20+ if he's healthy.
All the Bulls players combined... one scored 20+ in 1 out of 3 games so far. We've gone from a team that pushed the defending champs to OT several times in the 1st round of the playoffs to one that can't stay within 30 of them through 3 quarters.
And yet they've handled a consensus championship contender in SA, hung with last years 5th seed until two minutes left on the road. Your new favorite team, the pistons have had multiple 20 point scorers, but have blown leads to lose to non-playoff teams in Milwaukee and OKC. And through three games, the bulls are actually outscoring the pistons. I'd much rather have a team with 6 guys who score in double digits than a team with 3.
Detroit was missing Hamilton both games, and he's been a 20 PPG scorer once in his career. Without him, they have ONE 20 PPG scorer. And with him, they're not a very deep team.
And the Bulls are getting their asses handed to them by a team that beat Detroit, too. It's hard to make the case the Bulls are somehow better. As far as San Antonio, they sure look their age. I hope we can play many more games against a team with so many 30+ year old guys on the 2nd night of a back to back and they're on the road. Last year's team was fun to watch, after the Miller/Salmons trade. This year, meh.
I'm pretty sure my case was that there are bunch of teams that are mediocre. Period. Bulls pulled it out tonight against a team that the Pistons lost to, so that would be the only evidence that they are in any way better. You certainly can't make the case that the pistons are better.
Locks: Celts, magic, Cavs, Hawks 7 teams for 4 spots: Heat Detroit Charlotte Washington Philadelphia Chicago Toronto I like the Heat and the Wiz best out of that group. So perhaps there are 2 spots for 5 teams.
