Isn't his re-up at the end of this season? Seems like his potential bargaining power has become somewhat nil at this point. Thoughts?
You'd have to be stupid to commit a large/Long-term contract to Greg. It's not his fault and unfortunately this will cost him quite a bit of money.
Countless. No way to tell. It's not out of the realm of possibility (based on what we saw the last month or so) that Greg could have averaged 15/10/2.5 this season had he stayed healthy. And he was getting BETTER by the week. With that type of season under his belt, who knows what he would have accomplished next season? 18/12/3.5? You are talking huge money with those type of numbers. Max level. It's so hard to know what to expect from Greg now for next season. It's really a crap shoot.
He simply won't sign a contract this coming off-season, is my guess. Any contract the team would be willing to offer him, with all the risk involved, probably will be so small as to not be worth signing. Next season will probably be the key season...if he can have a healthy, impactful season...his bargaining power will be strong again. If he can't, then he'll probably have to accept journeyman money from the Blazers or another team.
There's always the possibility that the security of a long term guaranteed deal is worth more than hoping for a big return season, and cashing in on a big deal. if he was offered 5 years, 45-50 million, he knows he probably should or could get more, but if he hurts himself next season, or gets severely injured, he won't get anything. It'd be a risk for both sides. I doubt it happens, but I can see the organization taking the risk that he gets aand stays healthy, and they get a great deal. Maybe he takes the long term security over the potential for more later.
Pritch and the Blazers have done a decent job lowballing guys for potential with contracts commensurate to their performance (i.e. Martell and Outlaw). I think a similar scenario will be played for Oden.
I agree that if he got an offer like that he should, and probably would, sign it. I just wonder if the Blazers would risk that much when Oden is coming off his second season-ending injury in three years. I was thinking that offers might be in the MLE range. He already has long-term security from his rookie deal, as the #1 pick, assuming he was responsible with it. Since he has that money guaranteed, he's probably better off gambling on his health considering he knows he can play really well in the NBA. Unless, of course, he knows something about his health that we don't or is very risk-averse.
I don't know about this. It's a bigger risk for Portland IMO. Let's say Oden, by year 2 or 3 of this contract, is healthy and averaging 18/12. He'd be grossly underpaid at $9 million/year. Don't you think he would hold out for a restructuring? From that vantage point if I was Oden I would take the 5/45 deal . . . why not? It's money in the bag if he gets hurt again. I'm thinking a 2 or 3 year deal this summer at best.
5 year deal, then the next contract is his big money if he produces. 5/45 is too much though, he should be getting about 7-8 million per year right now as a high ceiling for 3 or 4 seasons.
yeah, he'd hold out if it were the NFL. But it's not. That doesn't happen in the NBA. it is a big risk for Portland, but it's high risk, high reward. Worst case is he is too hurt to ever play, but not hurt enough to retire, and we carry his salary on our books forever. That sucks. We'll likely be consistently at or near the cap line, so I don't think it will have a huge affect. Best case is he comes back 100%, and you haev him at great value.
This is what Martell did, right? As the numbers get higher, the likelihood of Oden signing such a deal increases. Just depends on how much each side wants to risk. But, they will have discussions.
My bad, you're right. But there's no chance Greg & his agent or going to let him play underpaid multiple years. Maybe they ask for player options on the back end of the contract. Otherwise, they would probably want a shorter deal as well.
Yeah, maybe have it smaller, but with big bonuses tied in to games played. Play over 70 games, get an additional million or two.
It seems to me that the only seasonable option at this point would be a contract with *mutual* options - ie either Oden or the Blazers can be free of the deal after the first couple of seasons. (and even at that, the starting salary would have to be in the $7-8 million range) Since the odds of Oden signing such a deal are almost nil, I can't see a deal getting done next summer.
I've never really understood...what's the value of mutual options over no contract at all for those years? A contract is meant to lock in certainty, on both sides. With mutual options, whichever side would rather pay more/less will opt out...how is that different from the player simply being a free agent? The only way both sides pick up the option is if the salary is what both sides would negotiate at exactly that time...which means they could do the same in the absence of the options. I know mutual options happen (especially in baseball...not sure how often in basketball), but I've never understood the point.
Complicating all this, is the strong possibility of a lock-out in the summer of 2011. Not exactly a good time to be a free agent! Since the cap will almost certainly drop significantly, Oden has a strong incentive to get a deal done under the current CBA. If the Blazers refuse to blink, I suppose there is a *chance* they can get him signed for what he is actually worth.....but I am not optimistic. (so yes, I am modifying my position slightly)
