Doug Thonus writes for ChicagoNow I guess I don't understand what he means by bad. I don't think it's excusable to say, gee, we were set from the beginning to be a house of cards, so it's not so bad now that the house has blown over. Every team suffers injuries. The fact that we have our 6th man go down and end up getting our doors blown off indicates to me that this team just hasn't been put together very well. If you build a tin shanty and compare it to a house, it looks like a piece of shit. If you only compare it to other tin shanties, then yeah, I guess it looks better. But I still wouldn't want to live there. How about hiring a man Jerry Reinsdorf publicly called a "novice" to shepherd Derrick Rose into the NBA game? From a bigger perspective, just what does "it's no where near as bad as it feels right now" mean? To me, this "feels" like a team that will struggle, even if healthy, to make the playoffs. If it does make the playoffs, it'll be on the back of players that won't be coming back and/or don't have much upside. We Which brings us to the longer range goals. As I see it, the "plan" is to woo a major FA this summer. On every front I can think of, the Bulls are doing a bad job of executing that plan. 1. They actually need to have max cap space. There are a variety of fairly reasonable scenarios (Salmons doesn't opt out, the Bulls can't unload Hinrich or Deng) in which they don't even have chance to bring in a max guy. So the Bulls have so far failed to secure themselves as a 2010 destination in the basic sense of certainly having the cap room. Every time I hear about Salmons being likely to opt out, I think of [video=youtube;RcL6DwSufMI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcL6DwSufMI[/video]. No matter how people try to justify it, it's six kinds of crazy to say the Bulls just "had" to do X,Y, and Z to get cap space for 2010 but then it's somehow ok to leave a 30% wild card chance out there that's completely out of their control and can screw up all their planning and moves up to that point. 2. Aside from Derrick Rose (who hasn't stepped up), is there anything remotely compelling about the Bulls as a FA destination? Do we seem particularly up and coming? No. Do we seem particularly adept at evaluating talent? No. Do we have a reputation for doing anything and everything possible as an organization to win? Ha. In short, this team is failing at its basic "mission" for this season. You can say stuff like "well, we've suffered injuries", but every team suffers injuries. Teams build success by making good decisions. But the bottom line is the Bulls have made bad decisions on talent, and bad decisions in fitting it together and leading it. Those are not only failures in themselves, they're failures because FAs are watching and judging our performance. Why should a Wade, Lebron or Bosh come here vs. staying where they're at? I don't see it and that's a big time failure at the only goal that matters.
All they have to do to get max space is renounce Tyrus, which doesn't seem like a longshot. They might even be able to resign him if they wanted to because I don't see him getting a lot of offers on the open market. You do seem a little caught up in the negative moment. They weren't going to be contenders this year even if they dumped Hinrich and kept BG or even just kept BG. So there's really nothing to get worked up about. Artis Gilore isn't walking through that door.
I'm guessing Kirk and Ben will be retired... and possibly dead and buried... before the Bulls are contenders again. Unless the team is for sale and I don't know about it.
I don't think you know the numbers. Factor in cap holds, and the salary cap shrinking by a potentially large amount, and it's very possible they won't get max space.
I don't think you know the numbers. The bulls have ~$44 mil committed next year including TT. Assume the salary cap drops to $52 mil which is a worst case. TT is due $6.25 mil assuming they just sign him to the QO. If they drop him the bulls are down to ~$37.75. A max deal for a player with 7-9 years is 30% of the cap, or 15.75 mil. So they are within $1 mil today. They could easily trade JJ and a second round pick to a team with cap space to get that last million, or Salmons could opt out, which would be the smart move if he has any kind of decent season.
No. You also have draft picks and cap holds to contend with. At the rate we're going, the draft pick is going to both be too valuable to trade for nothing and too expensive to slough off. Optimistically call it $1.5M. You basically have another $1.5M in cap holds for three more spaces too. That's brings us up to about $40.75M A $52M cap gives us 11.25M in cap space. $4M short from the max. Trading JJ ($1.7M) + our pick (@$1.5M) for nothing would actually only net us about $2.2M in cap space since we'd also accrue two more cap holds. So no, that wouldn't get us there. Throwing in Taj wouldn't get us there either if the cap falls that far. So yeah, you're leaving some stuff out.
Cap holds for whom? What cap holds would the bulls accrue by trading a player and/or a pick for a future pick? I thought cap holds are only for RFA or FA who haven't been signed or renounced. I'm assuming that decision will have been made by the first signing day. You got me on the picks, but those are again easily dealt with, too, and covered if Salmons opts out. So yes, they might not have all of the cap room on the last day of the season, but I don't see it being an obstacle if they really want the cap space. What are the three other spaces? Bulls also don't have a second round pick next year.
Bad. Rose is a young semi-star. Hinirch is average to bad. Deng is average. Salmons has regressed to his usual self. Miller has regressed big time this year, he was pretty effective last year. Taj / Johnson / Pargo / Hunter = meh, meh, meh, meh. Noah is slightly above average. They perhaps miss Tyrus, but he's not a game changer. Its just an average to bad collection of talent that is poorly coached and has a general management team with no vision.
Cap FAQ Q#14 So if the Bulls renounce Tyrus and add their draft pick, they've got 8 guys on their roster. That means their have cap holds for 4 players at the rookie minimum. Which, for 2010-2011 will be $473k. So $473k x 4 = $1.894M. As I pointed out in the last post, if the salary cap is toward the low end, even unloading their pick and this year's rookies wouldn't get them max room. So it couldn't be easily dealt with. But getting back to the bigger picture, you don't find it sort of ridiculous to take the chance the Bulls would have to dump three 1st round picks, including a likely 2010 lottery pick and renounce their supposed starter at PF instead of figuring out how to move Salmons for an expiring?
http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/2009/11/30/2010-cap-space-chicago/ 2010 Cap Space: Chicago In Free Agency, General NBA, Trade Talk on November 30, 2009 at 7:32 am Chicago Bulls Salaries Contracts above $5 million Luol Deng – $11.35 million Kirk Hinrich – $9 million Derrick Rose – $5.55 million Luol Deng has four years left on his increasing contract while Kirk Hinrich has only two seasons left on his decreasing deal. Derrick Rose will be entering the third season of his rookie contract. These three players total $25.9 million. Rest Of Team’s Salaries Joakim Noah – $3.13 million James Johnson – $1.71 million Jay Gibson – $1.12 million All three players are on their rookie contracts. Joakim Noah will be in the final year of his rookie deal and will be looking for a big pay increase the following year ($10 million?). Those contracts amount to $5.96 million and take the Bulls total up to $31.86 million. Other Costs Draft Picks — The Bulls should finish with a mid first round draft pick in the #14-18 range. That comes with a cap hold of $1.2-to-$1.47 million. Player Option — John Salmons has a player option of $5.81 million. It’s difficult to say whether or not he’ll choose to opt in or out of his contract. He has a good opportunity to up his value this season and had a wonderful year last season but Salmons’ performances so far this season have been dodgy. If he can’t get back to his 17+ppg days then he’ll likely stick with his present contract. Although, not even that is definite, it could still be worthwhile for Salmons to opt out and claim one last long lucrative contract (30 years old). Five guaranteed years could be hard to turn down. Anyway, in summary, it’s unclear. Open Roster Spots — Chicago will have seven players on their books plus possibly John Salmons … meaning a cap charge of $1.9-to-$2.38 million. The additional costs here amount to $3.58-to-$9.18 million mainly due to the John Salmons decision. That gives us a new total of $35.44-to-$41.04 million. The Cap The league sent out a memo at the beginning of free agency this year citing these numbers as possible cap figures for 2010 The NBA’s ballyhooed free-agent summer of 2010 might have quietly taken another hit late Tuesday night. In a memo announcing next season’s salary cap and luxury-tax threshold, sent out shortly before the league’s annual July moratorium on signings and trades was lifted at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, NBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 season. 2010 Cap Space So, the Chicago Bulls will have: Between $15-to-$17.9 million if John Salmons opts out Or $9.2-to-$12.1 million in cap space should John Salmons opt in Thoughts On The Bulls Free Agency Options Chicago cannot afford to Fail to create an opportunity to attain a top tier talent in free agency. This is their best chance to acquire an elite talent … and could risk the Bulls medium term future should they fail to acquire one. Risk losing that opportunity based on John Salmons’ decision on whether he’ll stay with his contract or look for a better deal in free agency. Consequently, the Bulls must Create additional cap flexibility in order to ensure enough cap space to offer a max contract to a free agent … either by Trading Kirk Hinrich Or by trading John Salmons Kirk Hinrich is the clear and obvious choice to move. $8-9 million is too much money to pay a backup guard, especially when he’s playing behind a 36-39 minute starter + franchise cornerstone in Derrick Rose. Hinrich is too good a player to be playing such a small role so he’ll want a change of scenery at some point anyway (likely at the end of his contract). Once Chicago clears up that cap space they can go on the hunt for a max contract free agent. Acquiring said free agent would give the Bulls an excellent core to build around for the next 5+ years. Derrick Rose + Max Contract FA + Luol Deng + Joakim Noah
Thanks for that insightful response. I thought there might be something about roster spots, but I didn't see it on the wikipedia page, which is my fault for trusting wikipedia. I'd move Hinrich in the right deal, like the one you outlined for McGrady. And I don't think I've ever said they should worry about keeping Salmons at the expense of cap space.
I don't see why Houston would want Kirk and his big contract in exchange for a huge expiring contract that gets them under the LT and cap next summer. The real question is who is the Ron Mercer of this FA class, because that's what our cap space will get us. You know, someone like Ben Wallace. Now there was a move that put us over the top.
Realistically: The FAs can sign for more/longer with their own teams. The Bulls are one of a number of teams with cap space. Why would we be their first choice? The chance to play with Derrick Rose, who by your admission is 5 years away from being a top flight player? Won't be their first or second or ... nth choice, either. Last resort they sign with their old team before signing with us. Except for guys like Mercer.
