There is a lot of talk about trading for a big man vs. not jepordizing the future. A twist on that thought is wondering when Brandon will be hitting his peak. Roy is the Blazers star and hopefully management is building the Blazer team with a main goal of building around Roy. Is Roy peaking right now? He is 25 years old, has 4 years of college, 4th year in the NBA logging big minutes and playing a physical game. I notice he isn't slamming as much although he does sacrafice his body on a nightly basis. How long can he keep up this production? I think Roy hits his physical peak between the ages of 25-28 . . . which is right now. Do we wait for the young to develop and be the key pieces next to Brandon (which basically makes this year a throw away year) . . . or do we give up some of that great youth to put players around Roy that gives the Blazers a chance at that run now.
with our gm and fans mentlity ... we will always be thinking next year. its ALWAYS FUCKING NEXT YEAR. kpee sends out that vibe cause hes scared to trade. until we start making trades... we arent going anywhere. fans and kpee just wanna sit on this potential and keep thinking future.
The Blazers certainly were thinking right now - with the addition of Miller and trying to get other pieces around Roy. I would not be surprised to see this attitude continuing. The facts are that this team was snake-beaten by the injuries this year - so they might have to wait for next year. Quite frankly - I do not think that not trading this year in order to keep the options alive for next year is a big deal. It is unlikely that they will get something that puts them over the top without Oden/Pryzbilla this year anyway. So, if there is no trade that makes them a contender this year, waiting for next year makes sense. It is, what it is.
Roy still has some upside and areas for improvement, which is kind of scary. Learning how to play off the ball and how to play with a dominant center are the two things that come to mind first. I also have seen no evidence that Roy is any less durable than the average superstar type player. I rhink Roy is on the verge of his peak and at 30-32 we will see Roy on the down side of his peak. Look at what Kobe is stil doing and he has been playing NBA ball since 18. I also think that the emergence of players like Greg, Bayless and Lamarcus will take a lot of strain off of Roy. Roy is really going 120% right now because he has to, dang he is fun to watch.
That's probably about right. Other than his rookie year with that Plantar Fasciitis, he's been pretty durable. If you look at all of the the top scorers in the league, almost all of them (except Lebron - he's a beast) have had seasons where they've played in less than 70 games. Especially at risk are guys like Kobe, Roy, Wade who attack the basket so much - those guys take a beating. I cringe every time I see Roy hit the floor, but I'm sure Laker fans and Heat fans feel the same way.
A lot of players peak at around 28 - I think that's when Jordan won his first title. Roy's 4 years in college could be an advantage as college season is a lot shorter than NBA season. A 25 year old with 1 year college and 5 or 6 in the NBA would have a lot more wear and tear than Roy. Personally I think the sky's the limit with Brandon. Poor Twolves
He's not peaking, but he's now in his prime. The time for winning is now, but that doesn't mean you sacrifice our future, at least not IMO. You're constantly building for both now and later.
Absolutely. It's very rarely an either/or proposition. Like any business, sports teams need to be looking at short-term success as well as long-term success. Different circumstances lead to different priorities, but it's not one or the other. Portland has generally entered the window where they should be thinking about winning a championship now and making moves to that end. This season may be an exception due to injuries but this was a contention season before the injuries. They shouldn't make moves that destroy their long-term viability, but if the chance comes along to trade some youth for a major upgrade, even if that player is not young, Portland should be seriously considering it. Stockpiling talented young players is akin to a company/individual stockpiling assets...eventually you have to use those assets to reach your goals. Some you may use yourself, some you may sell for profit. Portland will use (keep) some of their talented young players but needs to be ready to sell (trade) others.
My only concern is whether acquiring a player nearing the shadow of his prime years is the best move. Butler looks sexy on paper, but I dread that it would backfire on Portland. Adding him in this past off-season or even before this February deadline doesn't get us back into contention IMO. We get close, but we're just not close enough. Having him a part of next year's squad gets us even closer, but again my mind says that both Greg Oden and Jerryd Bayless would need that particular season under their belt before being the more polished players we'd need to beat the likes of the elites. By the time our youngsters are ready to match the ability level of Butler, his ability-level may be heading southwardly. I suppose I'd rather just continue to build through the draft, making deals for prospects that are undervalued. I just don't want to give up Nic, Jerryd, or Rudy at this point unless we're talking about gaining back Luol Deng. Note: I realize you didn't mention one word about Butler. I was just inserting his name because of his rumored availability recently.
2 comments. First, something has to give in the backcourt. Rudy was already unhappy about playing time...and now he is a broken toy who has a neat new toy (Bayless) to compete with. "Letting it bake" will only devalue the asset and cause more locker-room dissension. Second, Paul Allen is in poor health. Without his deep pockets and equally deep love for the team, the Blazers are boned. If the Blazers don't win a title in the next 2-3 years, I honestly believe they will not win one in my lifetime.
Here's the hard truth about actually achieving success, eventually you have to take risks -- hopefully calculated, but risks nonetheless. You can only fill so many needs through the draft, especially when KP (supposedly) is a "best player available" kind of guy. Furthermore, if history is any teacher, youth is not usually served in the NBA. A team like the Blazers that is already overloaded with youth and too many players for too few rotation spots, simply adding more draftees to the team without thinning things out is just going to lead to even more of the chemistry issues we saw crop up in the first month of the season before the Grim Reaper cut them down at the knees.
I've got little to say about your second point. What's the point of following the team then? As for Rudy, he won't remain unhappy. The team will make changes to accommodate him. They've a ton a reasons to. He's very skilled. He's very experienced. He's cheap for three more years. Another spaniard awaits. Steve Blake's time with the team is dwindling. Our need for him is nearly gone. I believe the same for Andre Miller. I see him likely moving in the offseason, possibly to Miami or Charlotte. It may not happen until next year, but come sometime in late 2010 or 2011, a three guard rotation with Roy, Rudy, and Bayless will emerge and his misgivings will be long forgotten, except by you. I get the feeling you forget nothing. I used to feel Rudy needed to go. Now, I don't. The dude is going to be a stud when given a consistent and substantial role. I want to see him do that in a Portland uniform. If that means, Blake, Miller, Mills and Koponen suffer because of this, then so be it.
Is it not fair to say that adding Butler is, in itself, a risk, given the points I detailed below (or above). Youth isn't usually served in the NBA, but then this team is built differently than any other team I've seen in the Association. Pritchard doesn't draft on hype, but based on set criteria (versatility, skill sets, coachable, experience). I actually maintain that if Portland continued to add International prospects, who were left in Europe's best leagues to develop, if Portland continued to draft very polished, mature players, and if they continually sought out players through the draft that matched a needed skill set, we'd be in a better position than if we traded for Vince Carter, Steve Nash, Gerald Wallace, or Caron Butler. Not that these players wouldn't be a significant upgrade for the team, but that our overall success over the long haul would be diminished without reaching our short term goal. Think about what we've done primarily through the draft. Sergio Rodriguez was a small but integral part of our success last season. Joel Freeland will likely be a part of this team next year or the year after. We had to give up nothing but cash to get these additions. Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen were primarily cash deals I believe (I know Rudy was part of the deal with NY and PHX). Rudy's a fucking stud. It would cost a pretty penny to try and attain a player of Rudy's stature from another team. I'm liking what I've seen from Koponen thus far, and would expect another two years of seasoning abroad he may be very valuable to our team or during a future draft to grab an equally solid player that we have more of a need for. Jerryd Bayless is just in his second year and he's already putting up what I consider starting-caliber numbers. Nic Batum in his first year was stepping in front of our established forwards to claim a starting role. Now, Vic Claver probably won't be a player to be relied on for around four seasons, but when/if he shows what he can do, we'll have him at a bargain price. Look what Pendergraph and Cunningham have helped do without giving up anything of great value. And again, if history is any trend, Patty Mills will likely be a cheap contributor. Using the draft the way Pritchard does maximizes our results without losing our assets. The time will come when a good asset will have to be moved to make room for better ones, but that time isn't yet. These rookie contracts are just too valuable to not take advantage of. We will improve the team, we'll just do it in an unconventional way, bringing over Freeland, drafting hidden gems that are ready to both contribute today, stashing away projects for the future, and sifting through the free agent rejects to bring in an overlooked player. I'm ranting, but I feel if we use our assets in trade via the draft, we'll profit more than using a greater amount of assets to bring back another team's player that doesn't quite fit as well.
